Incumbent DeWine (R) with Fairly Big Lead Over Brown (D) in Ohio

[Grad Students are the Worst]

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2006-04-26

Summary: D: 36%, R: 47%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL:Full Poll Details

[Defarge]

It's over

*changes prediction*

[Galactic Overlord]

Eh....I wouldn't be so quick to throw out this race, though I still think DeWine will win.  DeWine still has scores of conservatives mad at him, which is bringing his numbers lower than they would be.

[Yates]

This is not unexpected.

[Sam Spade]

This is the reason why I held the race at lean Rep. after Rasmussen's polling.  That is still the correct call.

I do expect Brown to get this race closer and make it competitive in the end; the real question is how much and a lot of that could depend on forces outside either his or DeWine's control.

[Sam Spade]

I should add:  The same thing needs to happen to Brown after the primary that I said should happen to Blackwell in the other thread.

However, because there is not a formidable primary opponent challenging Brown, I don't consider this as do-or-die as I do for Blackwell.

[Nym90]

Any incumbent who polls below 50 percent cannot be considered safe, but I do think that Dewine has a clear edge in this one.

[Sarnstrom]

Although DeWine is my favorite republican Senator, I sadly still expect him to lose for two words: BUSH and TAFT.

[nini2287]

Anyone who thinks this is "over" because of a high single-digit lead 6 months before the election is stupid.  I still think DeWine will win by about 5 points or so.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Any incumbent who polls below 50 percent cannot be considered safe, but I do think that Dewine has a clear edge in this one.

That is generally true, but it depends on how hard undecideds are pushed in part,  I'd think.

[Sam Spade]

Anyone who thinks this is "over" because of a high single-digit lead 6 months before the election is stupid.  I still think DeWine will win by about 5 points or so.

11 points is a single-digit lead??

Still, I generally agree with your prediction.  Henceforth, the Lean Rep designation.

[Sam Spade]

Any incumbent who polls below 50 percent cannot be considered safe, but I do think that Dewine has a clear edge in this one.

That is generally true, but it depends on how hard undecideds are pushed in part,  I'd think.

Very true. 

Typically, Mason-Dixon does not push its undecideds as hard as Rasmussen or SurveyUSA (which pushes the hardest of all), but less than some of the university polls.  They are comparable in undecided pushing to Research2000 and Strategic Vision (I/R), to name a couple.

[Democratic Hawk]

More down to Brown's weaknesses than DeWine's strengths, I suspect. Of course, things might change but DeWine's the favorite to win

Dave

[Ben.]

The poll pretty much supports what I've been saying this for a while now, namley that Brown is a weak candidate to run statewide in OH while DeWine is actually a fairly strong candidate.

Brown's hopes must rest on Strickland's coatails, but as the same poll as this had Strickland winning by the same margin as DeWine ( ) I doubt it'll help Brown much in the end if Strickland wins big or not, indeed DeWine probably has more to gain from a Blackwell campaign which, while probably losing, will bring out the core GOP vote in solid numbers.   

[Democratic Hawk]

I wonder if things would be any different were Strickland running for Senate and Brown for governor

Dave

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree.  Brown would probably even be able to win for Governor, although it would be more competetive.  In the end though, shouldn't Brown at least do better than John Kerry did in 2004?  Or at least better than Eric Fingerhut did LOL.

[Ben.]

...shouldn't Brown at least do better than John Kerry did in 2004?  Or at least better than Eric Fingerhut did LOL.

Better than Fingerhut, that’s for sure, but he won’t do anywhere near as well as Kerry.

I mean shouldn’t Fingerhut have done as well as Kerry in ’04, to put it simply “no he shouldn’t”.

Kerry was a presidential candidate facing an incumbent who’s primary base of support came from his party’s core supporters.

Brown is a senate candidate in a midterm election, facing an incumbent whose has excelled in building a base of support amongst moderate and independent voters, furthermore he’s facing an incumbent who can probably rely on his party’s base turnout for a Blackwell candidacy for Governor. 

[WalterMitty]

good news!

dewine is horrible.  but brown should be flogged.

[Ben.]

good news!

dewine is horrible.  but brown should be flogged.

But WalterMitty the same poll shows Strickland crushing Blackwell by the same margin as DeWine beats Brown... and yet i thought Ohio would never vote for a "silly" populist  

[WalterMitty]

good news!

dewine is horrible.  but brown should be flogged.

But WalterMitty the same poll shows Strickland crushing Blackwell by the same margin as DeWine beats Brown... and yet i thought Ohio would never vote for a "silly" populist  

im still confidently predicting a blackwell victory.

[Ben.]

good news!

dewine is horrible.  but brown should be flogged.

But WalterMitty the same poll shows Strickland crushing Blackwell by the same margin as DeWine beats Brown... and yet i thought Ohio would never vote for a "silly" populist  

im still confidently predicting a blackwell victory.

Fair enough, but simply don’t see how either Brown or Blackwell climb out from their core bases of support and beat DeWine or Strickland respectively, I can see both DeWine and Strickland holding their bases while winning amongst moderates and independents, at the same time I just cant see either Brown or Blackwell doing the same… in fact the poll is very interesting, two moderates from separate parties seem to be (on this poll at least) cursing to clear wins in their respective races.

[WMS]

good news!

dewine is horrible.  but brown should be flogged.

But WalterMitty the same poll shows Strickland crushing Blackwell by the same margin as DeWine beats Brown... and yet i thought Ohio would never vote for a "silly" populist  

im still confidently predicting a blackwell victory.

Fair enough, but simply don’t see how either Brown or Blackwell climb out from their core bases of support and beat DeWine or Strickland respectively, I can see both DeWine and Strickland holding their bases while winning amongst moderates and independents, at the same time I just cant see either Brown or Blackwell doing the same… in fact the poll is very interesting, two moderates from separate parties seem to be (on this poll at least) cursing to clear wins in their respective races.

That is as it should be.

[Galactic Overlord]

good news!

dewine is horrible.  but brown should be flogged.

But WalterMitty the same poll shows Strickland crushing Blackwell by the same margin as DeWine beats Brown... and yet i thought Ohio would never vote for a "silly" populist  

im still confidently predicting a blackwell victory.

Fair enough, but simply don’t see how either Brown or Blackwell climb out from their core bases of support and beat DeWine or Strickland respectively, I can see both DeWine and Strickland holding their bases while winning amongst moderates and independents, at the same time I just cant see either Brown or Blackwell doing the same… in fact the poll is very interesting, two moderates from separate parties seem to be (on this poll at least) cursing to clear wins in their respective races.

I don't think that's necessarily true of Blackwell v. Strickland.  Both candidates have opportunities to win votes in places other candidates probably wouldn't.  I expect Strickland to run better than Brown in the south central and eastern counties that made up parts of his former or current congressional district.  Blackwell, likewise, may improve upon Taft's 59% showing in Hamiliton County when he first ran for governor, as it is his home base and he has performed very strongly there.

Judging from every past race I could get my hands on, parts of the state vote pretty much the same way, with southwest Ohio, northwest Ohio, and the new suburbs around Columbus going Republican while the northeast and Cleveland votes Democrat.  That leaves Columbus and swing areas like Stark County as the major battlegrounds, and whatever percentage of the black vote Blackwell gets will also be an unknown factor.  There's also the chance that Blackwell's candidacy will inspire high turnout in fast growing suburban areas, which would necesitate Strickland picking off a huge target, like a 55%+ win in Franklin County to ensure he wins.  So this race is full of unknowns.

[Ben.]

good news!

dewine is horrible.  but brown should be flogged.

But WalterMitty the same poll shows Strickland crushing Blackwell by the same margin as DeWine beats Brown... and yet i thought Ohio would never vote for a "silly" populist  

im still confidently predicting a blackwell victory.

Fair enough, but simply don’t see how either Brown or Blackwell climb out from their core bases of support and beat DeWine or Strickland respectively, I can see both DeWine and Strickland holding their bases while winning amongst moderates and independents, at the same time I just cant see either Brown or Blackwell doing the same… in fact the poll is very interesting, two moderates from separate parties seem to be (on this poll at least) cursing to clear wins in their respective races.

That is as it should be.

Indeed

[Tender Branson]

How funny