Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 21, 2014, 02:13:13 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Most vulnerable governor seat
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Most vulnerable governor seat  (Read 10244 times)
nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8853


View Profile
« on: May 29, 2004, 06:04:38 pm »
Ignore

I'd say Missouri.
Logged



[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

opebo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47607


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2004, 06:30:20 pm »
Ignore

Yeah people here seem to have a big problem with Holden.  Blunt is fairly popular.
Logged

The essence of democracy at its purest is a lynch mob

lidaker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 750
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: 0.88, S: -4.67

View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2004, 09:55:09 pm »
Ignore

Missouri or Montana, probably Missouri
Logged

Long live the memory of Edmund Burke
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3698


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2004, 10:41:47 am »
Ignore


Holden is the most likely to be defeated, but he has almost as much chance of losing the primary as the general election.

The most likely seat to switch parties is Montana.  Schweitzer is up big in every poll.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35757
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2004, 10:06:35 am »
Ignore

Indiana
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
struct310
Full Member
***
Posts: 247


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2004, 04:42:02 pm »
Ignore

Missouri and Indiana.  The Washington race could switch too.
Logged
Horus
Sheliak5
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1320


Political Matrix
E: 0.51, S: -9.21

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2004, 07:58:58 pm »
Ignore

Missouri.
Logged
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57010
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2004, 03:06:35 am »
Ignore

WV is the least likely to switch (the Dem candidate is the popular Sec of State for WV. And as he's not tarred in anyway by Wise's inability to "keep it zipped").
Holden is the most likely to go down... but quite possibly in the primary.
Lets say Montana.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21134


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2004, 05:20:35 pm »
Ignore

how come wise isnt running for reelection?  is he term limited?
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
Quote
I'm not going to waste 2 hours of my night just to walk for 20 minutes.
incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72747
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2004, 06:07:27 pm »
Ignore

He got caught in an affair. Too bad, the Dem candidate is a DINO jerk who endorsed Underwood at one point and wants to REQUIRE schools to post the Ten Commandments. No, he's not for defending the rights of schools or teachers to post them, he wants it MANDATED. If I lived in WV I'd be voting third party. I'd rather Wise run again even if he was vulnerable than let that jerk get in.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2004, 06:07:58 pm by Better Red Than Dead »Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57010
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2004, 11:39:59 am »
Ignore

He got caught in an affair. Too bad, the Dem candidate is a DINO jerk who endorsed Underwood at one point and wants to REQUIRE schools to post the Ten Commandments. No, he's not for defending the rights of schools or teachers to post them, he wants it MANDATED. If I lived in WV I'd be voting third party. I'd rather Wise run again even if he was vulnerable than let that jerk get in.

Manchin's no DINO... he's a populist (his economic policy is very interventionist) and his views, however repellent they are to you, are those of the majority of people in WV.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
incredibly specific types of post-punk music
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72747
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2004, 08:06:42 pm »
Ignore

It's not his views mainly though, it's that he endorsed Underwood.

also if he's pro-right to work like I've been told, he's no populist either.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57010
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2004, 06:00:48 am »
Ignore

It's not his views mainly though, it's that he endorsed Underwood.

Cross party endorsements etc are very common in WV. It's often got more to do with power than ideology: http://www.manchin2004.com/endorsements.cfm

Quote
also if he's pro-right to work like I've been told, he's no populist either.

Who told you that?
Have a look at this: http://www.manchin2004.com/keyissues.cfm?issue=1
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15214
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2004, 10:29:48 am »
Ignore

Montana.
Logged
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 57010
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2004, 02:01:36 pm »
Ignore

2 people voted WV?!?!
Manchin is sitting at 60% in the polls with an unknown GOP opponent.
No way he loses.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
StevenNick
StevenNick99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1912


View Profile WWW
« Reply #15 on: July 04, 2004, 10:35:01 pm »
Ignore

Missouri and Indiana.  The Washington race could switch too.

Definately watch Washington.  The likely democratic nominee is a potentially weak candidate named Christine Gregoire.  She is the AG of Washington State.  Unfortunately for her there is a "scandal" involving her mismanagement of the AG's office that will no doubt dog her until the end of the election.  And of course, Gregoire will be running to succeed the somewhat unpopular Gary Locke.  Republicans don't like Locke because he's a slave to the teachers unions and the democrats don't like him because he signed a budget a couple of sessions ago that gutted some state programs.

Meanwhile, the republicans have already rallied behind Dino Rossi.  He's simply a phenomenal candidate.  He's a state Senator from Western Washington, a successful businessman.  He's accepted by moderates and conservatives (in the past WA republicans have nominated far right candidates).  He's been raising a ton of money.

Another thing to keep in mind is that since 2000, republican voter registration has increased significantly.  I believe republicans are within a point or two of achieving parity with the democrats.  All that to say that I think republicans have a great opportunity to win the governorship.
Logged



Economic Left/Right: 5.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.00
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13753
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: July 06, 2004, 03:19:18 pm »
Ignore

Where did you get data for voter registration?? I can't find it.

It certainly took the Republicans quite a while to find a candidate. You're right though, he is the first Republican candidate to have a chance of winning in a while...

Rossi is (well, was) the state senator for my district.
Logged

StevenNick
StevenNick99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1912


View Profile WWW
« Reply #17 on: July 06, 2004, 06:23:57 pm »
Ignore

The numbers I referred to comes from a report by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press entitled "2004 Political Landscape."  The report examines party identification nation-wide and on a state by state basis.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?PageID=750

Washington isn't mentioned in the text of the report, but you can see in the table entitled "Partisan Shifts in Democratic States" that Republicans have made a net gain of 6 percentage points in party identification post 9/11.  Of course, this report isn't gospel, but I do think it accurately captured a nation-wide swing to the GOP in which Washington state is included.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2004, 06:24:21 pm by Senator StevenNick »Logged



Economic Left/Right: 5.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.00
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13753
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: July 06, 2004, 09:59:36 pm »
Ignore

Don't some state governments actually have the info?? I think I remember reading about the reason why Washington doesn't but I forgot.

I'm a stat whore.
Logged

only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58775
India


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2004, 08:01:12 am »
Ignore

Don't some state governments actually have the info?? I think I remember reading about the reason why Washington doesn't but I forgot.

I'm a stat whore.
You guys of all should know, shouldn't you? There is no partisan registration in Washington. Or at least that's what I'm told...
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13753
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: July 07, 2004, 12:22:42 pm »
Ignore

But why not? That is what I don't understand. I want to know!
Logged

StevenNick
StevenNick99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1912


View Profile WWW
« Reply #21 on: July 07, 2004, 02:04:57 pm »
Ignore

That's about to change with our new primary system.  The numbers in the survey I cited above are voter identification.  In the very near future, however, there should be some data about voter registration in Washington state.
Logged



Economic Left/Right: 5.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 0.00
RockiesFan4life
Newbie
*
Posts: 3


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2004, 12:40:39 am »
Ignore

Montana will be close, but I predict that Brown will win in the 2-3% margin.  Schwietzer is currently bogged down in a scandal that will seriously hurt his campaign: he recently bought two trucks from a dealer in Idaho, instead of Montana.  
Also Shweitzer is a control freak who was running his own campaign until just weeks before the primary when he hired the son of NBA commisioner David Stern, but his campaign manager has vitually no control over the campaign, with shweitzer and his brother in complete control
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52494


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2004, 12:44:38 am »
Ignore

Montana will be close, but I predict that Brown will win in the 2-3% margin.  Schwietzer is currently bogged down in a scandal that will seriously hurt his campaign: he recently bought two trucks from a dealer in Idaho, instead of Montana.  
Also Shweitzer is a control freak who was running his own campaign until just weeks before the primary when he hired the son of NBA commisioner David Stern, but his campaign manager has vitually no control over the campaign, with shweitzer and his brother in complete control

Well it's good to here from someone that knows Montana politics that we still have a chance at keeping the Governorship there. Welcome to the forum, RockiesFan.
Logged


Never any doubt.
RockiesFan4life
Newbie
*
Posts: 3


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2004, 12:54:01 am »
Ignore

Thanks Phil.
Even with all of Shweitzer's oddities, however, he is a skilled politician (almost beat Sen Burns in '00) and he actually has a repub for a running mate (State Sen John Bollinger), who could really cut into the heavy republican areas in Billings.
But overall, Bush will easily win this state, and generate coatails for Brown, carrying him to victory (also remember that Bush's campaign chairman is Marc Racicot, the extremely popular former governor of MT).
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines