Missouri and Indiana. The Washington race could switch too.
Definately watch Washington. The likely democratic nominee is a potentially weak candidate named Christine Gregoire. She is the AG of Washington State. Unfortunately for her there is a "scandal" involving her mismanagement of the AG's office that will no doubt dog her until the end of the election. And of course, Gregoire will be running to succeed the somewhat unpopular Gary Locke. Republicans don't like Locke because he's a slave to the teachers unions and the democrats don't like him because he signed a budget a couple of sessions ago that gutted some state programs.
Meanwhile, the republicans have already rallied behind Dino Rossi. He's simply a phenomenal candidate. He's a state Senator from Western Washington, a successful businessman. He's accepted by moderates and conservatives (in the past WA republicans have nominated far right candidates). He's been raising a ton of money.
Another thing to keep in mind is that since 2000, republican voter registration has increased significantly. I believe republicans are within a point or two of achieving parity with the democrats. All that to say that I think republicans have a great opportunity to win the governorship.
