How likely is your party of winning the 2008 election.
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 18, 2024, 09:22:17 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  How likely is your party of winning the 2008 election.
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: How likely is your party of winning the 2008 election.  (Read 2625 times)
kashifsakhan
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 525
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 07, 2006, 12:30:54 AM »

How likely is your party of winning the 2008 election? Perhaps you could venture a guess about what sort of electoral and popular vote your party will get in 2008.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2006, 12:35:03 AM »

0.000000000000000000000000001% chance

0 electoral votes

<0.1% of the vote

Best state: I guess California or Massachusetts or Vermont or something

FTR, I belong to the Socialist Party, for the few that dont know Smiley
Logged
Reaganfan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,239
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2006, 08:41:53 AM »

The Republicans hold the electoral votes. Currently, we tend anywhere from 279-259 without Iowa or New Hampshire, and 290-248 with Iowa and New Hampshire. If we won the 2000 vote exactly in 2008, we would come out 278-260...more than even in 2000.

If we had a good candidate, like Pawlenty or McCain...and we could pull Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and all of the Bush 2004 states...and come over the 350 EV mark. If the democrats run a bad candidate, even candidates like George Allen and Mitt Romney would be able to cross well over 300 EV.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,767


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2006, 11:32:42 AM »

Kind of hard to say this early on...I guess the Democrats have a decent shot, but I doubt that they can get more than 300 EVs. THe probability of Democrats winning is in the 45-55 range, the PV, excluding 3rd party candidates, will probably be 49-51.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2006, 12:59:08 PM »

0%
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2006, 02:24:07 PM »

40%
Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2006, 02:47:47 PM »

35%.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,260
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2006, 08:47:37 PM »

The Republicans hold the electoral votes. Currently, we tend anywhere from 279-259 without Iowa or New Hampshire, and 290-248 with Iowa and New Hampshire. If we won the 2000 vote exactly in 2008, we would come out 278-260...more than even in 2000.

If we had a good candidate, like Pawlenty or McCain...and we could pull Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and all of the Bush 2004 states...and come over the 350 EV mark. If the democrats run a bad candidate, even candidates like George Allen and Mitt Romney would be able to cross well over 300 EV.

If Bush's approval ratings stay where they are, 350 electoral votes is a fantasy for the Republicans, regardless of who is nominated. Even 270 would be highly unlikely.

Of course, 2 and a half years is a lifetime in politics, so we'll see what happens. But I think it's a bit unrealistic to think that Bush and people's opinions of him won't be a factor in the 2008 election. A lot of people seem to be assuming that the election will be decided simply on the basis of the candidates involved without considering this factor.
Logged
MODU
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,024
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2006, 07:22:21 AM »


My party has zero chance of winning.  hehee . . . I don't have a party. Tongue
Logged
skybridge
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,919
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2006, 09:34:00 AM »

44.5%

26 elections won / 53 elections participated in = 49%
15 elections won / 37 elections w/current major party opponent = 40%

  49%
+44%
-------  = 44.5%
  2
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,503
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2006, 09:55:04 AM »
« Edited: May 08, 2006, 09:57:02 AM by Blue Dog Dem »

It would depend on how Democrats use their majorities in Congress vis-a-vis President Bush.  If, like the Republicans of 1994 (assuming Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress by similarly lopsided margins this November), they overreach themselves in pandering to the extreme Bush-hating elements of the party, we could see a possible Republican resurgence in 2008, which could also affect the presidential race.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,260
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2006, 10:37:27 AM »

It would depend on how Democrats use their majorities in Congress vis-a-vis President Bush.  If, like the Republicans of 1994 (assuming Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress by similarly lopsided margins this November), they overreach themselves in pandering to the extreme Bush-hating elements of the party, we could see a possible Republican resurgence in 2008, which could also affect the presidential race.

That's true; the chances of the Republicans winning the Presidency in 2008 would probably be increased if the Democrats take control of Congress this year.
Logged
Max
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 276


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2006, 12:19:08 PM »


dito.

I don't expect the SPD to win

;-)
Logged
Gabu
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,388
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2006, 01:12:06 PM »

0%, unless the Liberal Party stages a hostile* invasion of America and becomes dictators in 2008.

*by hostile, I of course mean by Canadian standards, which means that we don't bring enough maple syrup for all the prisoners to put on the pancakes we'll give them.
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,503
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2006, 09:33:54 PM »

It would depend on how Democrats use their majorities in Congress vis-a-vis President Bush.  If, like the Republicans of 1994 (assuming Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress by similarly lopsided margins this November), they overreach themselves in pandering to the extreme Bush-hating elements of the party, we could see a possible Republican resurgence in 2008, which could also affect the presidential race.

That's true; the chances of the Republicans winning the Presidency in 2008 would probably be increased if the Democrats take control of Congress this year.

Which is why I think Democrats would be better off to gain seats in both houses of Congress this year, while leaving Republicans with enough of a majority that they would be blamed for whatever happens as the party in power, but not enough to overcome Democratic opposition to whichever policies they choose to pursue.  This would be the worst possible outcome that would befall Republicans this November.  They will get very little -if anything- done, but they will get all the blame for the war, rising deficits and debt levels, inaction on global warming, as well as being stuck with an increasingly unpopular president, all of which could combine to give us a perfect storm that would enable us to take control of not only Congress, but also the presidency in 2008 (assuming we nominate Mark Warner). 

Logged
12th Doctor
supersoulty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,584
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2006, 10:02:11 PM »

Unfortunatly... the Labour Party is a non-entity in the US, as are the Christian Democrats...

That leaves the Republicans... that remains to be seen.
Logged
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,968
Canada


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2006, 10:05:40 PM »

0%, unless the Liberal Party stages a hostile* invasion of America and becomes dictators in 2008.

*by hostile, I of course mean by Canadian standards, which means that we don't bring enough maple syrup for all the prisoners to put on the pancakes we'll give them.

The Liberals are not currently capable of invading a Tim Hortons at this moment let alone the USA.

Besides, there is a good chance we may have an election in 2008 Smiley
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.041 seconds with 11 queries.