As time goes on I have really started to think that she can win. Her national numbers have steadily been creeping up as time has gone on and she is pissing off just enough people on the left to make her look moderate without losing too much of her base. Check out
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Hillary%20Meter.htm She has a ton of money and the Republicans have already thrown everything they have at her - there would be no Swift Boat veterans or Willie Hortons.
It all comes down to who her opponent is. If it's McCain she loses, but that doesn't say much - McCain would beat any Democrat. If, on the other hand, it's someone like Allen, Huckabee or Frist she might have a shot. She could win the same states that Kerry did and probably be competetive in Iowa, Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, and perhaps some states in the southwest.
It's all about the matchup. Depending on who her opponent is, she could win, but it would without a doubt be th ugliest election in modern history.