Blaenau Gwent Double By-election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to Sky, Indies have "won". No details or anything.

Although to be entirely honest... I wouldn't really mind a great deal if this is true* (the campaign tactics of both Official and Indie Lab candidates in this by-election have been bad, but in different ways), although I would still prefer the official candidates to win.

*So long as they both vote as Peter Law intended to before he got very, very ill...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to Sky, Indies have "won". No details or anything.

Ah Sky, informative as ever

...not as bad as the beeb though.

The Beeb wait until everything is nice and safe then report it Thats why ITV are quicker off the mark at election time- they seem to go with 'results' before the actual declaration

True. Sky have made some mistakes in the past though IIRC... I'm a little worried that they've *called* it already; it would be better if they had just said "x is leading". Generally the difference is academic though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to le BBC, the rumours are coming from Plaid briefings to the press based on samplings. That sort of thing is fairly accurate in most by-elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC: Law has a good lead, but the Westminster seat is very close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Still no updates... Radio 5 is playing a long piece on knife crime instead...

[Ben.]

Still no updates... Radio 5 is playing a long piece on knife crime instead...

Indeed... is that Jody Dunn the LibDem candidate from Hartlepool?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Still no updates... Radio 5 is playing a long piece on knife crime instead...

Indeed... is that Jody Dunn the LibDem candidate from Hartlepool?

Yep, 'tis her indeed.

[Ben.]

Still no updates... Radio 5 is playing a long piece on knife crime instead...

Indeed... is that Jody Dunn the LibDem candidate from Hartlepool?

Yep, 'tis her indeed.

mmmm... Irony

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Radio 5 says that the official Labour candidates have conceded defeat.

Edit: apparently Wayne David (M.P for Caerphilly) has said the official Labour candidates have lost, although the margins were closer than in 2005.

===

Comment: there should have been a serious attempt to patch things up as soon as the General Election was over, and certainly the decision to expel some members a few weeks later was f***ing stupid (IIRC this was the doing of the Wales, rather than national, Labour party).
What happens next depends on how Davies and Law perform in their new jobs I guess. Could well be as hard to predict as these by-elections were... a lot of other uncertainties as well. Law is up for re-election next May, btw.

I know what I would like to happen next (you can all guess that I think) but the problem when personality and personal loyalties is that people (on both sides) don't see things like that...

I think it is time to end those stupid all-women shortlists though.

Ah well. I just hope they vote the right way...

Did the non-Socialist candidates save their deposits or not?

[Democratic Hawk]

Radio 5 says that the official Labour candidates have conceded defeat.

Now since its candidates, I can only assume both the parliamentary candidate and Welsh Assembly candidate are reported to have lost

Labour should have ran Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent back in May 2005 instead of insisting on some candidate from an all-woman shortlist . Time that policy was kicked bang into f***ing touch and that's swearing

I'm not happy with my party at the moment, not happy at all! Good job there's nowhere else for me to go

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour should have ran Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent back in May 2005 instead of insisting on some candidate from an all-woman shortlist

I agree. Never liked Law much myself (always was a bit of an egomaniac) but there are a lot of Labour M.P's that I don't like...

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Agree, strongly agree. 'Tis time to agitate to that effect...

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Change is on the way though... the sooner the better. Did you see Jack Straw's ideas the other day? Something that the grassroots should latch very, very strongly onto...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Davies has won by about 2,000 votes. Smith polled the 10,000 that Jones did in 2005.

[Democratic Hawk]

Davies has won by about 2,000 votes. Smith polled the 10,000 that Jones did in 2005.

Labour need a kick up the arse for ever losing the seat in the first place . Will they, ultimately, learn their lesson and see the errors of their ways?

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour need a kick up the arse for ever losing the seat in the first place . Will they, ultimately, learn their lesson and see the errors of their ways?

The problem with that seat is that the Labour party there got split down the middle by the mess last year; listening to the Count speechs by Davies and Smith, the two were basically reading off the same hymn sheet (with a couple of slightly different details. Cut those out and you'd never guess they were running against each other).
I think there needs to be some radical changes to the way the party is structured (and in certain respects, to how it's always been structured) and led. The sooner the better.

[Harry Hayfield]

Westminster

David Clifford Davies, BGPV    12543   46.17%
Owen Smith, Lab    10059   37.02%
Steffan Lewis, PC     1755    6.46%
Amy Elizabeth Kitchener, LDm     1477    5.43%
Margrit Anna Williams, Con     1013    3.72%
Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope, Lny      318    1.17%

Assembly

Patricia Law, Ind    13785   50.33%
John Jones Hopkins, Lab     9321   34.03%
Stephen Richard Bard, LDm     2054    7.49%
Norman John Price, PC     1109    4.04%
Jonathan Burns, Con      816    2.97%
John Matthews, Grn      302    1.10%

[minionofmidas]

Radio 5 says that the official Labour candidates have conceded defeat.

Now since its candidates, I can only assume both the parliamentary candidate and Welsh Assembly candidate are reported to have lost

Labour should have ran Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent back in May 2005 instead of insisting on some candidate from an all-woman shortlist . Time that policy was kicked bang into f***ing touch and that's swearing

I'm not happy with my party at the moment, not happy at all! Good job there's nowhere else for me to go

Dave

You could open up a Durham branch of the Blaenau Gwent Independents!

[minionofmidas]

Westminster

David Clifford Davies, BGPV    12543   46.17%
Owen Smith, Lab    10059   37.02%
Steffan Lewis, PC     1755    6.46%
Amy Elizabeth Kitchener, LDm     1477    5.43%
Margrit Anna Williams, Con     1013    3.72%
Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope, Lny      318    1.17%

Assembly

Patricia Law, Ind    13785   50.33%
John Jones Hopkins, Lab     9321   34.03%
Stephen Richard Bard, LDm     2054    7.49%
Norman John Price, PC     1109    4.04%
Jonathan Burns, Con      816    2.97%
John Matthews, Grn      302    1.10%

So Westminster wasn't even all that close - now that much is a wee bit surprising. Interesting differences in the PC and LD imperial and national votes, btw. (Why would Plaid do better at the Westminster level? ... Must be to do with candidate quality I guess...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So Westminster wasn't even all that close - now that much is a wee bit surprising.

By South Wales standards it was very close indeed

There was a good turnout in Ebbw Vale apparently (very much Dai Davies's patch). To a great extent both sides were able to get out their vote from 2005.
Interestingly enough the BBC's site only has the changes from 2005 in raw terms.

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Well Trish Law got a rather large symphathy vote that Dai Davies didn't really get, but I also think that the Plaid Assembly candidate went on holiday during the election campaign or something like that...

Wait... a majority of non-red rosette wearing candidates lost their deposits?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Westminster

David Clifford Davies, BGPV    12543   46.17%
Owen Smith, Lab    10059   37.02%
Steffan Lewis, PC     1755    6.46%
Amy Elizabeth Kitchener, LDm     1477    5.43%
Margrit Anna Williams, Con     1013    3.72%
Alan 'Howling Laud' Hope, Lny      318    1.17%

Assembly

Patricia Law, Ind    13785   50.33%
John Jones Hopkins, Lab     9321   34.03%
Stephen Richard Bard, LDm     2054    7.49%
Norman John Price, PC     1109    4.04%
Jonathan Burns, Con      816    2.97%
John Matthews, Grn      302    1.10%

Couple of things I've just noticed;

1. There was a lot less ticket splitting that I'd been expecting; this leads me to think that if the by-elections had been on seperate days, Davies would probably have lost (if that doesn't make any sense, I can explain in more detail )
2. Even in the Assembly election the official Labour % was higher than in the 2005 General Election.
3. It seems as though the people that voted Loony, also voted Green

And some notes that aren't really based on the above figures:

4. Trish Law gave no indication that she'll run again next year. Hopkins indicated that he was going to.
5. I don't think ideology played much part in the result; I suspect you probably couldn't put a sheet of paper between the political views of Trish Law and Hopkins, and I don't think that Davies and Smith are very far apart either.
6. The electorate of Blaenau Gwent has now declined to 52,900

[Harry Hayfield]

1. There was a lot less ticket splitting that I'd been expecting; this leads me to think that if the by-elections had been on seperate days, Davies would probably have lost (if that doesn't make any sense, I can explain in more detail )

Please do, that sounds a fascinating idea (especially with the regional list concept)

[Rural Radical]

I am suprised that we didnt win it back though.

[Democratic Hawk]

I am suprised that we didnt win it back though.

Well, I'd have prefered to see Labour win it back but it doesn't alter the fact, it should never have been lost in the first place

Dave