Blaenau Gwent Double By-election

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When is it?

29th of June for the Assembly election. The Westminster by-election is almost certain to be on the same day.

Candidates...

Labour are running the leader of Blaenau Gwent CBC for the Assembly by-election and a man who used to work for a former NI and Wales Secretary, in the Westminster by-election.

The Lawite candidates will be Trish Law (in the Assembly by-election) and Dai Davies in the Westminster by-election.

The LibDems are running one of their few local councillers for the Assembly seat and someone I've never heard of for the Westminster seat.

The Tories are running a Cardiff counciller for one, some unknown for the other.

Plaid have yet to pick candidates. Whether they'll make an effort after Llwyd getting his metaphorical figures publically burned is another question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As many as 350 jobs could be lost in Ebbw Vale...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/4773779.stm

...although there are some rays of light from the news. And there's still a 90 day consultation period.

This will likely have more effect (if any) on the Assembly by-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Posted by Harry elsewhere and kinda-moved here now...

Blaenau Gwent Polls

Pollster: NOP
Commissioned by: ITV 1 Wales
Size of sample: 1,000
Date of sample: May 24th - 28th

Westminster: Lab 47% (+15%), Ind Lab 35% (-23%), Lib Dem 6% (+2%), Plaid Cymru 6% (+4%), Con 5% (+3%)
Assembly: Ind Lab 43%, Lab 40% (-13% on Lab 2003), Lib Dem 6% (-5%), Plaid Cymru 6% (-4%), Con 3% (-3%), Green 2% (+2%)

Comment: the accuracy of constituency polls is...er... somewhat mixed... but has tended to to be a bit better in Wales than elsewhere (NOP constituency polls in 2003 were pretty good on the whole. They *did* overestimate Marek in Wrexham though; they had him up by a lot and he only just squeaked back in. The 2005 poll of Ynys Môn called the winner wrong o/c). However, the Labour lead in the Westminster poll is large enough to assume a Labour lead in the Westminster by-election, while Law's lead in the Assembly by-election would have been narrow enough to assume "too close to call" anyway.
It's also very clear that a lot of ticket-splitting is to be expected...

Still a about month to go though...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as I'm aware, not much has changed in recent weeks. Labour are running a very local campaign though; reports are that a lot of posters and literature say "Blaenau Gwent Labour" on them rather than the more common "Welsh Labour".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As far as I'm aware, not much has changed in recent weeks. Labour are running a very local campaign though; reports are that a lot of posters and literature say "Blaenau Gwent Labour" on them rather than the more common "Welsh Labour".

If that doesn't work they can always drop 'Labour'

Seeing as most of the people who'll vote for the official Labour candidates will only do so because of the word "Labour" next to their name on the ballot paper... maybe not such a good idea...
...o/c most of Trish Law's voters will only vote for her because of her surname so...

I do hope that no-one plays a trick on the ballot paper like "putting [insert placename here] first"... or even worse... "save our hospital"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Random news updates...

Owen Smith has said that he opposes replacing Trident. A nasty row is taking place between the police and Blaenau Gwent CBC. I think that that's it.
Rumour remains that Smith will win the Westminster seat, but the Assembly seat is still very close; although Trish Law has apparently been (slowly) losing ground over the past month or so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The inevitable postal vote rumours are here... although much less detailed than is the norm; two sides "level" apparently, though no rumour says whether this is for the Westminster or Assembly seat (and everyone excepts that there will be ticket-splitters).
Seeing as Labour's current theme is trying to get people to not vote for Trish Law (Amicus have sent a letter to their members telling them this, and Neil Kinnock was running a similer line) I'm guessing that it's the Assembly election that be level.
If the rumours are accurate that is; for an example of this, see the local elections in the northern part of Southwark this year. Two entirely different rumours of what the postal votes indicated were spread around (note that in all cases this is only ever an incomplete sample; the actual counting won't have happend yet).
And it goes without saying that it is in the interests of Labour to claim that the Assembly seat is very close...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Been trying to find some real news and have failed; these by-elections have hardly been covered in the London media and have had only patchy coverage in the Cardiff media...
For what it's worth (which may not be much) I'm told that the bookies have Smith as favourite for the Westminster seat and Law as favourite for the Assembly seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently there's a marked difference in the sign war between the different towns in the constituency; by the sound of it Labour "lead" in the smaller towns (including Tredegar) but trail in Ebbw Vale. Not that that is at all suprising (this was always likely to develop in a parochial way; this is South Wales after all) but I felt like mentioning it.

Today is also the anniversary of the Six Bells disaster (which killed 45 miners near Abertillery in 1960).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Personally I think (although I'm certainly not sure) that Labour will win the Westminster seat and Law will win the Assembly seat; no outcome involving a combination of Labour and Indies winning would be suprising at all though (O.K... Hopkins and Davies both winning would be suprising).

But will the other parties save their deposits?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Election is today. I'll find out about the results tomorrow I suppose.

Yeah; result expected 3am or so (although we'll know who's won before then).

Senior people in Labour have briefed some newspapers that they're optmistic about taking the Westminster seat, but think that Law will win the Assembly seat, although maybe not by much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The N.E.C elections were the other day; Skinner topped the poll by a country mile. All incumbents re-elected I think, although only just.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls have closed (and in Bromley as well).

Other media reports (which were leaked well before the polls were closed) have said that the Westminster seat will be tight.

Personally I haven't a clue what'll happen either way...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not heard anything yet. I'm a bit pessimistic now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC Wales has apparently said that the Indies were ahead in the postal voting. It *was* on Dragon's Eye so take with a pinch of salt.

But I've still heard no real reports from the count. Radio 5 had Trish Law on... and she didn't give any real indication to how things are going. Certainly didn't sound confident, but didn't sound downbeat either.
She didn't object to being called Independent Labour though.

If the results really are close (and I have no real idea...) then it could be hours until we even get an indication of who may or may not be leading...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to Sky, Indies have "won". No details or anything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to Sky, Indies have "won". No details or anything.

Although to be entirely honest... I wouldn't really mind a great deal if this is true* (the campaign tactics of both Official and Indie Lab candidates in this by-election have been bad, but in different ways), although I would still prefer the official candidates to win.

*So long as they both vote as Peter Law intended to before he got very, very ill...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to Sky, Indies have "won". No details or anything.

Ah Sky, informative as ever

...not as bad as the beeb though.

The Beeb wait until everything is nice and safe then report it Thats why ITV are quicker off the mark at election time- they seem to go with 'results' before the actual declaration

True. Sky have made some mistakes in the past though IIRC... I'm a little worried that they've *called* it already; it would be better if they had just said "x is leading". Generally the difference is academic though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to le BBC, the rumours are coming from Plaid briefings to the press based on samplings. That sort of thing is fairly accurate in most by-elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BBC: Law has a good lead, but the Westminster seat is very close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Still no updates... Radio 5 is playing a long piece on knife crime instead...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Still no updates... Radio 5 is playing a long piece on knife crime instead...

Indeed... is that Jody Dunn the LibDem candidate from Hartlepool?

Yep, 'tis her indeed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Radio 5 says that the official Labour candidates have conceded defeat.

Edit: apparently Wayne David (M.P for Caerphilly) has said the official Labour candidates have lost, although the margins were closer than in 2005.

===

Comment: there should have been a serious attempt to patch things up as soon as the General Election was over, and certainly the decision to expel some members a few weeks later was f***ing stupid (IIRC this was the doing of the Wales, rather than national, Labour party).
What happens next depends on how Davies and Law perform in their new jobs I guess. Could well be as hard to predict as these by-elections were... a lot of other uncertainties as well. Law is up for re-election next May, btw.

I know what I would like to happen next (you can all guess that I think) but the problem when personality and personal loyalties is that people (on both sides) don't see things like that...

I think it is time to end those stupid all-women shortlists though.

Ah well. I just hope they vote the right way...

Did the non-Socialist candidates save their deposits or not?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour should have ran Peter Law in Blaenau Gwent back in May 2005 instead of insisting on some candidate from an all-woman shortlist

I agree. Never liked Law much myself (always was a bit of an egomaniac) but there are a lot of Labour M.P's that I don't like...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Agree, strongly agree. 'Tis time to agitate to that effect...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Change is on the way though... the sooner the better. Did you see Jack Straw's ideas the other day? Something that the grassroots should latch very, very strongly onto...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Davies has won by about 2,000 votes. Smith polled the 10,000 that Jones did in 2005.