Nova Scotia election 2006!

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia is having their provincial elections on June 13.

The new Premier, Rodney MacDonald (Progressive Conservative) called the election yesterday. Nova Scotia currently has Canada's only minority provincial or territorial legislature as all three parties are quite strong.

Recent polls indicate the Tories (Prog. Cons.) are in the lead followed by the NDP and the Liberals at least 5 points back.

The last election was in 2003. The Tories won 25 seats, the NDP won 15 and the Liberals won 12.

Strenghts:

Tories: Rural areas especially along the south shore, the northern areas and in the east.

NDP: Halifax, Dartmouth and Sydney (the main cities)

Liberals: Western Nova Scotia and Cape Breton with a few seats in Halifax. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nova Scotia has a very fickle electorate so you can never tell what will happen... could be quite fun.

Last time round the NDP picked up one or two rural seats IIRC.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia has a very fickle electorate so you can never tell what will happen... could be quite fun.

Last time round the NDP picked up one or two rural seats IIRC.

Yes they did, and they will have to pick up more to win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bump. Al, you should merge this with Bono's thread.

The latest poll was on May 23:

PC 34 (down 2 since Feb)
Liberals 30 (+4)
NDP 27 (-2)

:S

No new polls since then unfortunately.

[Hatman 🍁]

Found a new poll! Very encouraging. The Liberals have dropped 10 points and the NDP is now within 2 points of the tories.

http://www.cbc.ca/ns/story/nsv-poll20060605.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A 10pt drop during the course of a campaign? Ouch... any regional data or?...

[Hatman 🍁]

A 10pt drop during the course of a campaign? Ouch... any regional data or?...

I couldn't find any information, sorry.

I did find an interesting story though.
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=12b9e351-52fe-430f-96b0-e7de89906da8&k=99599

But it looks like the pundits have been disproven based on the recent poll numbers.

[© tweed]

I've actually been to the Nova Scotia parliament building.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've actually been to the Nova Scotia parliament building.

What were you doing there?

I think I've been to PEI's Parliament, but that's it. (and of course, the Canadian Parliament which I intern at)

[© tweed]

I've actually been to the Nova Scotia parliament building.

What were you doing there?

I think I've been to PEI's Parliament, but that's it. (and of course, the Canadian Parliament which I intern at)

I was on a cruise in August '04, and one of the stops was in Halifax.  I went on a tour of the parliament building.

[minionofmidas]

I've actually been to the Nova Scotia parliament building.

What were you doing there?

I think I've been to PEI's Parliament, but that's it. (and of course, the Canadian Parliament which I intern at)

I've been to Alberta's.

[Hatman 🍁]

A 10pt drop during the course of a campaign? Ouch... any regional data or?...

Here we go, Al:

 Momentum Shifts In NS Provincial Election
HALIFAX (June 5): A virtual collapse in support for the Liberal party has transformed the provincial election into a close two-party race, according to the most recent survey conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. between May 23 and June 4 2006. Nonetheless, if the election were to be held today, it is probable that the Tories would win re-election with an outside chance of a majority government. Interestingly, support for the NDP over the past week has been increasing both for the party overall and its leader, Darrell Dexter, leading to the possibility of the first NDP government in Nova Scotia’s history, although this possibility is limited by the concentration of support for the party in Metro Halifax.

Among decided and leaning voters, the ruling PCs have the support of approximately four in ten (38%) residents, while 36 percent of Nova Scotians back the NDP. The Liberals have the backing of two in ten (20%) decided residents. Six percent of decided and leaning voters state they support none of these parties, do not plan to vote, or favour others, while the number of residents who are undecided or refuse to state a preference stands at 15 percent.

Backing for the NDP remains highest in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) (47%), with the Liberals performing best in Cape Breton (29%), although the Liberals no longer lead in voter support in this region (PC support is 33%, NDP support is 34%). The Conservatives, meanwhile, receive the highest level of support in mainland Nova Scotia outside of HRM (46%).

Looking at preference for Premier, PC leader Rodney MacDonald (36%) and NDP leader Darrell Dexter (34%) are in a virtual tie, with Liberal leader Francis MacKenzie coming in third with 13 percent support. More than one in ten Nova Scotians (15%) are undecided in terms of leader preference, while the remainder prefer none of these leaders or name another person (2%).

[Hatman 🍁]

Today is election day.

Polls close at 7pm AT which is 6pm ET. Unfortunately, I won't be home until 9pm ET at the earliest, so I wont know the details until then. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've read reports that both the NDP and Tories fancy their chances at making big gains in Cape Breton.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've read reports that both the NDP and Tories fancy their chances at making big gains in Cape Breton.

Not sure if there's much more than two seats to pick up there, as it's a traditional bastion for the Liberals.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've read reports that both the NDP and Tories fancy their chances at making big gains in Cape Breton.

Not sure if there's much more than two seats to pick up there, as it's a traditional bastion for the Liberals.

Traditionally it is, yes. But if they really *are* collapsing...
Anyways I do know that both Tory and NDP leaders have been campaigning in some "safe" Liberal seats up there... meanwhile the Tories have apparently thrown a lot of resources into some of their "safe" rural seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've read reports that both the NDP and Tories fancy their chances at making big gains in Cape Breton.

Not sure if there's much more than two seats to pick up there, as it's a traditional bastion for the Liberals.

Traditionally it is, yes. But if they really *are* collapsing...
Anyways I do know that both Tory and NDP leaders have been campaigning in some "safe" Liberal seats up there... meanwhile the Tories have apparently thrown a lot of resources into some of their "safe" rural seats.

What's your prediction then, Al?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my prediction. Even split!

PC 26
NDP 20
LP 6

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's your prediction then, Al?

Not really sure; things seem even more up-in-the-air than is usual even in a Canadian election. The NDP have certainly run a strong campaign though and seem to have spooked the Tories somewhat. The big question is whether or not the Liberals collapse; they certainly have form for doing that in NS (ie; the 1997 Federal Election) and that Cape Breton (and *all* of it; not just the highly industrial (post-industrial really) core) is being treated as a battleground certainly indicates that it's possible... hmm... might give a seat-by-seat prediction (even though it'd certainly be badly wrong )
The safe prediction is no-majority o/c but...

[Hatman 🍁]

What's your prediction then, Al?

Not really sure; things seem even more up-in-the-air than is usual even in a Canadian election. The NDP have certainly run a strong campaign though and seem to have spooked the Tories somewhat. The big question is whether or not the Liberals collapse; they certainly have form for doing that in NS (ie; the 1997 Federal Election) and that Cape Breton (and *all* of it; not just the highly industrial (post-industrial really) core) is being treated as a battleground certainly indicates that it's possible... hmm... might give a seat-by-seat prediction (even though it'd certainly be badly wrong )
The safe prediction is no-majority o/c but...

I don't know how safe that prediction would be, I'd say a majority is more than likely, pending on how much the Liberals collapse.

[minionofmidas]

Fingers crossed for an NDP majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have a break right now in my class, so I rushed to the computer lab to check the results.

The Conservatives are leading or elected in 22 seats, the NDP in 20 and the Liberals in 9. 1 seat has not reported yes. Looks like a close one! NDP is trailing by 5% in PV though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

According to CBC, 12 Tories, 7 Dippers and two Liberals have been elected. The Tories lead in 10 more, the NDP in 12 more and the Liberals in 8 more.

More details in s ec...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest projection: PC 23, NDP 20, Lib 9

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Liberal leader has lost.

Tightest race is in Queens (PC for over 50 years)... NDP lead by a handful of votes. A similer riding nearby is also very close.