For me, "tossup" does not mean "I have no clue whatsoever where it is", but rather, "the advantage one candidate has over the other is minimal". Conversely, "lean" means that one candidate has a significant lead, and "strong" means "I really can't see this candidate losing".
I think that the prediction itself is better to look at than the confidence, given that everyone has a different definition of "strong", "lean", and "tossup".
I agree completely with that. Take the Missouri Senate Race for example. Do I think McCaskill will win? Yes, I do. Do I consider it a tossup? Yes, but I think McCaskill will come out on top. Would I go so far as to call it "Lean Democrat?" Absolutely not. I'm going to end this self-interview before I start to sound like Donald Rumsfeld.
Basically, it depends on what your definition of "lean" and "tossup" are. I may be optimistic, but I try not to be blatantly partisan.
