Philosophy on tossups?

[Gustaf]

Am I the only one to believe that to be intellectually honest one should assign about as many tossups to either side?

On the forum compiled prediction all tossup states except Minnesota are called for Democrats. I suspect that this is people allowing their partisanship to blind them. If you feel confident in calling a state, set it to lean. If you aren't, well, if you toss a coin there will be as many heads as tails coming up, and ignoring that is a little wrong if you ask me.

[Gustaf]

On the forum compiled prediction all tossup states except Minnesota are called for Democrats.

It's gotten worse. Right now 13 races are called Dem, 9 are tossup Dem, and 14 are called Rep. None are tossup Rep. :

That's what I'm talking about. My point is basically this:

If you take a number of races and you say, in race A the Democrat incumbent is behind by 5% but will still win because of factors X and Y. And in race B the Democrat challenger is behind by 3% but will win because of Z. And in race C, an open seat, the Democrat is tied but will win because of P and Q, and so on and so on, and for EVERY SINGLE race you can't call for sure you end up predicting the Democrats, then I think there is something wrong with your objectivity. All these races don't look the same, so they shouldn't all go the same way.

[Gustaf]

I also have Colorado as Republican. We have seen two polls only, one showing the Republican ahead and one showing the Democrat ahead and both with about 20% undecided. There is no reason to predict a seat like that switching.