Montenegrin referendum
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Author Topic: Montenegrin referendum  (Read 7880 times)
ag
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« on: May 20, 2006, 12:20:19 PM »

Montenegrin referendum on independence from "Serbia and Montenegro" is tomorrow. Should be fun
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2006, 02:29:59 PM »

I do hope they vote Yes.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2006, 02:55:56 PM »

I don't. No reason to really, except that it'd tidy up Serbia's constitutional arrangements. (Odd fact: though from Serbia politically, Slobodan Milosevic was actually Montenegrin.)
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ag
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2006, 08:46:07 PM »

I don't. No reason to really, except that it'd tidy up Serbia's constitutional arrangements. (Odd fact: though from Serbia politically, Slobodan Milosevic was actually Montenegrin.)

I don't know where his parents came from originally, but Milosevic was born and grew up in Serbia, quite far from Montenegrin border (in Pozarevac, to be specific).

Of course, Montenegrins and Serbs speak the same language, write using the same alphabet(s) and have the same religion, but there is a distinct identity, though it might be somewhat fluid, and Montenegro had been independent for a long time before Serbia got its own independence.  At present, the union links with Serbia are extremely weak and getting weaker. They don't even use the Serbian currency (they use euro instead). Independence would tidy things up, for sure - the only alternative is greater integration, as the current nominal union is extremely unstable and is not serving much of a purpose. There isn't really much less (or more) argument for Montenegrin independence than there is for Moldovan, Austrian or New Zealandian (from, say, Australia).  Whatever makes them happier.  And, by the way, independent Montenegro would have a much easier time getting into the EU: they are small, they don't have to search for war criminals, they already use the euro anyway - chances are, they'd be accepted at the same time as Croatia, or even before it.
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BRTD
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2006, 10:53:53 PM »

That's what I support independence. There's no point in the union anymore, it was just a half assed way to keep a remnant of Yugoslavia alive.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2006, 06:04:54 AM »

I don't. No reason to really, except that it'd tidy up Serbia's constitutional arrangements. (Odd fact: though from Serbia politically, Slobodan Milosevic was actually Montenegrin.)

I don't know where his parents came from originally, but Milosevic was born and grew up in Serbia, quite far from Montenegrin border (in Pozarevac, to be specific).

Of course, Montenegrins and Serbs speak the same language, write using the same alphabet(s) and have the same religion, but there is a distinct identity, though it might be somewhat fluid, and Montenegro had been independent for a long time before Serbia got its own independence.  At present, the union links with Serbia are extremely weak and getting weaker. They don't even use the Serbian currency (they use euro instead). Independence would tidy things up, for sure - the only alternative is greater integration, as the current nominal union is extremely unstable and is not serving much of a purpose. There isn't really much less (or more) argument for Montenegrin independence than there is for Moldovan, Austrian or New Zealandian (from, say, Australia).  Whatever makes them happier.  And, by the way, independent Montenegro would have a much easier time getting into the EU: they are small, they don't have to search for war criminals, they already use the euro anyway - chances are, they'd be accepted at the same time as Croatia, or even before it.
All true, of course. (Well, not quite sure about the War Criminals part actually...) But hey, who wants things tidy? Smiley
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2006, 06:13:17 AM »

"And even the transport system has become divided. Free railway tickets are being offered in Serbia for Montenegrins to return home to vote against independence. Meanwhile dozens of extra aircraft have been flying in Montenegrins living abroad, at no expense, so they can vote for independence.

Indeed, the result of the referendum may be very close and it could be the diaspora that ultimately decides the republic's fate. "

Uh-oh. That sounds bad. Reminds me of the 1921 referenda about the German-Polish border...
Btw, 55% yes is required for independence, but there's no turnout threshold. It's likely going to be quite tight.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2006, 10:51:23 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2006, 10:56:59 AM by Old Europe »

Btw, 55% yes is required for independence, but there's no turnout threshold. It's likely going to be quite tight.

There's a turnout threshold of 50%... which has already been passed.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5001598.stm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegrin_independence_referendum%2C_2006#Vote_specifications
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ag
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2006, 11:23:42 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2006, 11:26:02 AM by ag »

If you can read Serbo-Croatian (in Latin alphabet), the Radio-TV of Montenegro has a webpage at http://www.rtcg.cg.yu/ . They, hopefully, will have the news. By 5 PM 75% of registered voters have voted. This is with 4 hours to go! Some turnout!

The voting is over at 9 PM local time, they promise first projections by 10 PM. It is now 6:21 PM
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2006, 11:37:44 AM »

I've always been against turnout thresholds. While the logic behind them is good, they end up being self-defeating in referendums, since voting "no" becomes pointless, you can do better by simply not voting in which case everyone who wouldn't have voted anyway also becomes a de factor "no" vote. Reminds me of how the Catholic church managed to kill a stem cell research plan in Italy by urging a boycott of the referendum, it failed on turnout, but probably would've passed without such a threshold
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ag
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2006, 11:40:25 AM »

Just noticed a hilarious detail: the official webpage of the Montenegrin government http://www.vlada.cg.yu/ exists in two language versions: (some sort of) English and Crnogorski ("Montenegrin"). At least the official site of the country http://www.montenegro.yu/ calls the latter tongue Srpski ("Serbian"). Poor old Serbo-Croatian - before we know, they'd split between Beogradski and Novisadski Smiley

Another interesting note: almost all official and semi-official Montenegrin sites only have Latin alphabet versions (no Cyrillic), even though the alphabets are supposed to be co-equal, with Cyrillic traditionally used much more. They say it is even now noticeable in Serbia, where Cyrillic had always predominated - the impact of internet (Latin pages are easier to make and to read, without bothering about the multiple existing standards of representing Cyrillic, and so  young people tend to be more comfortable in Latin, making it spill into the offline life)
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BRTD
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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2006, 11:43:13 AM »

Here's an interesting note from the wiki article, which also relates to what ag just said:

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Wow, nice that they're actually willing to admit the thing that no one else in the region will. I wonder if anyone has ever insisted that we speak "American" and they speak "British" in Britain.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2006, 11:54:28 AM »

Here's an interesting note from the wiki article, which also relates to what ag just said:

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Wow, nice that they're actually willing to admit the thing that no one else in the region will. I wonder if anyone has ever insisted that we speak "American" and they speak "British" in Britain.
Your kids will have to take "English Scottish American and Newzealander" classes in school, I'm afraid.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2006, 12:12:40 PM »

An exit poll is expected to come out at just after 1800 UTC (1900 BST, 2100 local time) and is likely to be covered on EuroNews. And if they say "YES" that puts the comments of the Serbian Eurovision chief judge yesterday in stark contrast to reality.
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ag
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2006, 12:39:35 PM »

By 6 PM  the turnout has grown to 79.5% with 3 hours to go. It is 7:39 PM right now - 1 hour and 21 minutes to go.
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ag
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« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2006, 01:22:13 PM »

I am loving this country more and more. As I said, Latin is the only alphabetic option on almost any gov't and media webpage I've found. On one of them (radio-TV of Montenegro) I've found the list of municipalities (opshtinas) with the number of voters in each. Here it is, exactly as on the page:

Andrijevica - 4.369
Bar - 32.255
Berane - 28.342
Bijelo Polje - 40.110
Budva - 12.797
Danilovgrad - 11.784
Žabljak - 3.407
Kolašin - 7.405
Kotor - 17.778
Mojkovac - 7.645
Nikši? - 56.461
Plav - 12.662
Plužine - 3.329
Pljevlja - 27.882
Podgorica - 129.083
Rožaje - 19.646
Tivat - 10.776
Ulcinj - 17.117
Herceg Novi - 24.487
Cetinje - 15.077
Šavnik - 2.306

A brownie point for everyone who figures out the order in which the municipalities are listed Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #16 on: May 21, 2006, 01:30:57 PM »

By 7 PM w/ 2 hours to go turnout was 82.8%. In the North the number is 82.4%, in the Center it is 84.6% and in the South 79.3%. It is now 8:30 PM - half an hour to go.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #17 on: May 21, 2006, 01:33:49 PM »

I am loving this country more and more. As I said, Latin is the only alphabetic option on almost any gov't and media webpage I've found. On one of them (radio-TV of Montenegro) I've found the list of municipalities (opshtinas) with the number of voters in each. Here it is, exactly as on the page:

Andrijevica - 4.369
Bar - 32.255
Berane - 28.342
Bijelo Polje - 40.110
Budva - 12.797
Danilovgrad - 11.784
Žabljak - 3.407
Kolašin - 7.405
Kotor - 17.778
Mojkovac - 7.645
Nikši? - 56.461
Plav - 12.662
Plužine - 3.329
Pljevlja - 27.882
Podgorica - 129.083
Rožaje - 19.646
Tivat - 10.776
Ulcinj - 17.117
Herceg Novi - 24.487
Cetinje - 15.077
Šavnik - 2.306

A brownie point for everyone who figures out the order in which the municipalities are listed Smiley
Cyrillic alphabetical, I would hope.
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ag
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2006, 01:34:43 PM »

I am loving this country more and more. As I said, Latin is the only alphabetic option on almost any gov't and media webpage I've found. On one of them (radio-TV of Montenegro) I've found the list of municipalities (opshtinas) with the number of voters in each. Here it is, exactly as on the page:

Andrijevica - 4.369
Bar - 32.255
Berane - 28.342
Bijelo Polje - 40.110
Budva - 12.797
Danilovgrad - 11.784
Žabljak - 3.407
Kolašin - 7.405
Kotor - 17.778
Mojkovac - 7.645
Nikši? - 56.461
Plav - 12.662
Plužine - 3.329
Pljevlja - 27.882
Podgorica - 129.083
Rožaje - 19.646
Tivat - 10.776
Ulcinj - 17.117
Herceg Novi - 24.487
Cetinje - 15.077
Šavnik - 2.306

A brownie point for everyone who figures out the order in which the municipalities are listed Smiley
Cyrillic alphabetical, I would hope.

Of course!
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ag
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2006, 01:37:33 PM »

For those who's prefer to follow things in English, Centar za Monitoring (an observer group) has an English page at http://www.referendummontenegro.cg.yu/english/index.php . They report 84.1% turnout at 7:30 PM (407600 of the total of 484718 registered voters).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2006, 01:38:25 PM »

By 7 PM w/ 2 hours to go turnout was 82.8%. In the North the number is 82.4%, in the Center it is 84.6% and in the South 79.3%. It is now 8:30 PM - half an hour to go.
Nothing on coastal vs inland?

Yeah yeah, 20 seconds rule... shoot it.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2006, 01:39:09 PM »

I get a brownie! Munch. Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2006, 01:44:40 PM »

By 7 PM w/ 2 hours to go turnout was 82.8%. In the North the number is 82.4%, in the Center it is 84.6% and in the South 79.3%. It is now 8:30 PM - half an hour to go.
Nothing on coastal vs inland?

The site I've just given in the previous post has data by opshtina - get a map, and you'll know who exactly voted were. 

It seems these guys have zillions of monitors. Another anglophone  site is Centar za demokratsku tranziciju at http://www.cdtmn.org/en/ . They claim 85.4% turnout by 8 PM
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ag
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2006, 02:26:28 PM »
« Edited: May 21, 2006, 02:43:56 PM by ag »

The final report at 9 PM seems to be that about 419 800 voters voted, making a turnout of 86.6%. No news on the exit polls.

EDIT: these were actually data on 8:30 - so it will be still a bit higher. Still no news
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ag
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« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2006, 03:00:51 PM »

First returns from the Centar za Monitoring (still no clue based on what proportion of precincts): Yes 56.3% . Looks like a long night.
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