Montenegrin referendum

[ag]

Montenegrin referendum on independence from "Serbia and Montenegro" is tomorrow. Should be fun

[ag]

I don't. No reason to really, except that it'd tidy up Serbia's constitutional arrangements. (Odd fact: though from Serbia politically, Slobodan Milosevic was actually Montenegrin.)

I don't know where his parents came from originally, but Milosevic was born and grew up in Serbia, quite far from Montenegrin border (in Pozarevac, to be specific).

Of course, Montenegrins and Serbs speak the same language, write using the same alphabet(s) and have the same religion, but there is a distinct identity, though it might be somewhat fluid, and Montenegro had been independent for a long time before Serbia got its own independence.  At present, the union links with Serbia are extremely weak and getting weaker. They don't even use the Serbian currency (they use euro instead). Independence would tidy things up, for sure - the only alternative is greater integration, as the current nominal union is extremely unstable and is not serving much of a purpose. There isn't really much less (or more) argument for Montenegrin independence than there is for Moldovan, Austrian or New Zealandian (from, say, Australia).  Whatever makes them happier.  And, by the way, independent Montenegro would have a much easier time getting into the EU: they are small, they don't have to search for war criminals, they already use the euro anyway - chances are, they'd be accepted at the same time as Croatia, or even before it.

[ag]

If you can read Serbo-Croatian (in Latin alphabet), the Radio-TV of Montenegro has a webpage at http://www.rtcg.cg.yu/ . They, hopefully, will have the news. By 5 PM 75% of registered voters have voted. This is with 4 hours to go! Some turnout!

The voting is over at 9 PM local time, they promise first projections by 10 PM. It is now 6:21 PM

[ag]

Just noticed a hilarious detail: the official webpage of the Montenegrin government http://www.vlada.cg.yu/ exists in two language versions: (some sort of) English and Crnogorski ("Montenegrin"). At least the official site of the country http://www.montenegro.yu/ calls the latter tongue Srpski ("Serbian"). Poor old Serbo-Croatian - before we know, they'd split between Beogradski and Novisadski

Another interesting note: almost all official and semi-official Montenegrin sites only have Latin alphabet versions (no Cyrillic), even though the alphabets are supposed to be co-equal, with Cyrillic traditionally used much more. They say it is even now noticeable in Serbia, where Cyrillic had always predominated - the impact of internet (Latin pages are easier to make and to read, without bothering about the multiple existing standards of representing Cyrillic, and so  young people tend to be more comfortable in Latin, making it spill into the offline life)

[ag]

By 6 PM  the turnout has grown to 79.5% with 3 hours to go. It is 7:39 PM right now - 1 hour and 21 minutes to go.

[ag]

I am loving this country more and more. As I said, Latin is the only alphabetic option on almost any gov't and media webpage I've found. On one of them (radio-TV of Montenegro) I've found the list of municipalities (opshtinas) with the number of voters in each. Here it is, exactly as on the page:

Andrijevica - 4.369
Bar - 32.255
Berane - 28.342
Bijelo Polje - 40.110
Budva - 12.797
Danilovgrad - 11.784
Žabljak - 3.407
Kolašin - 7.405
Kotor - 17.778
Mojkovac - 7.645
Nikši? - 56.461
Plav - 12.662
Plužine - 3.329
Pljevlja - 27.882
Podgorica - 129.083
Rožaje - 19.646
Tivat - 10.776
Ulcinj - 17.117
Herceg Novi - 24.487
Cetinje - 15.077
Šavnik - 2.306

A brownie point for everyone who figures out the order in which the municipalities are listed

[ag]

By 7 PM w/ 2 hours to go turnout was 82.8%. In the North the number is 82.4%, in the Center it is 84.6% and in the South 79.3%. It is now 8:30 PM - half an hour to go.

[ag]

I am loving this country more and more. As I said, Latin is the only alphabetic option on almost any gov't and media webpage I've found. On one of them (radio-TV of Montenegro) I've found the list of municipalities (opshtinas) with the number of voters in each. Here it is, exactly as on the page:

Andrijevica - 4.369
Bar - 32.255
Berane - 28.342
Bijelo Polje - 40.110
Budva - 12.797
Danilovgrad - 11.784
Žabljak - 3.407
Kolašin - 7.405
Kotor - 17.778
Mojkovac - 7.645
Nikši? - 56.461
Plav - 12.662
Plužine - 3.329
Pljevlja - 27.882
Podgorica - 129.083
Rožaje - 19.646
Tivat - 10.776
Ulcinj - 17.117
Herceg Novi - 24.487
Cetinje - 15.077
Šavnik - 2.306

A brownie point for everyone who figures out the order in which the municipalities are listed

Cyrillic alphabetical, I would hope.

Of course!

[ag]

For those who's prefer to follow things in English, Centar za Monitoring (an observer group) has an English page at http://www.referendummontenegro.cg.yu/english/index.php . They report 84.1% turnout at 7:30 PM (407600 of the total of 484718 registered voters).

[ag]

By 7 PM w/ 2 hours to go turnout was 82.8%. In the North the number is 82.4%, in the Center it is 84.6% and in the South 79.3%. It is now 8:30 PM - half an hour to go.

Nothing on coastal vs inland?

The site I've just given in the previous post has data by opshtina - get a map, and you'll know who exactly voted were. 

It seems these guys have zillions of monitors. Another anglophone  site is Centar za demokratsku tranziciju at http://www.cdtmn.org/en/ . They claim 85.4% turnout by 8 PM

[ag]

The final report at 9 PM seems to be that about 419 800 voters voted, making a turnout of 86.6%. No news on the exit polls.

EDIT: these were actually data on 8:30 - so it will be still a bit higher. Still no news

[ag]

First returns from the Centar za Monitoring (still no clue based on what proportion of precincts): Yes 56.3% . Looks like a long night.

[ag]

So far, we have two projections by monitor groups: yes getting 56.3% or 55.3% - both extremely close to the 55% threshold. I'd wait for the official results.

Kosovo is not directly affected by this, but I actually think if Montenegrin independence goes through it does increase chances of Kosovo's de facto independence being formalized sooner.

[ag]

Montenegrin Radio-TV

RRK: CRNA GORA NEZAVISNA DRŽAVA

Za nezavisnost Crne Gore glasalo je 55,4 odsto izašlih bira?a, a 44,6 izjasnilo se protiv, saopštila je Republi?ka referendumska komisija ,saopštavaju?i prve preliminarne rezultate.

REPUBLICAN REFERENDUM COMMISSION: MONTENEGRO IS AN INDEPENDENT STATE

For independence of Montenegro voted 55.4% of the voters, 44.6% voted against, informed the Republican Referendum Commission, informing on the first preliminary results.

By the way, why is it that in English we use the Italian translation of the country's name?  I guess, Crna Gora sounds too barbarian

[ag]

Centar za Monitoring is ahead of the Referendum Commission. They claim to have tallied all the polling stations. Thus, final, if not official results are:

for independence – 55.52%; for the Union: 44.48%. Total turnout: 86.35%.

[ag]

Not only Albanians, but also Slavic Muslims, methinks.

[ag]

Looks as if ethic Albanians carried Crna Gora to independence. What do they call Montenegro in Albanian?

According to wikipedia: Mali i Zi. I assume that means "Black mountain" in Albanian. .

http://sq.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia_dhe_Mali_i_Zi

Yep. I was actually nerdy enough to have found it in an Albanian dictionary.