The pro-Democrat swing
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  The pro-Democrat swing
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Poll
Question: What % of congressional districts will see a swing from the GOP to the Democrats?
#1
>90%
 
#2
>80%
 
#3
>70%
 
#4
>60%
 
#5
>50%
 
#6
50% or less
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 20

Author Topic: The pro-Democrat swing  (Read 1008 times)
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« on: October 28, 2006, 11:21:39 PM »
« edited: October 28, 2006, 11:23:37 PM by Senator Dave 'Hawk' PPT »

Basically, what % of congressional districts, be they deepest Republican or deepest Democrat, do think will see a net swing from Republican to Democrat?

For illustrative purposes, of all parliamentary seats in the 1997 UK General Election, only two seats Bethnel Green & Bow (East London) and Bradford West (West Yorkshire) saw swings to the Conservatives due to local factors; most notably, race and religion

Not that I'm suggesting 433 districts will see a swing to the Democrats mind you

Dave
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2006, 11:43:19 PM »

80%
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Ben.
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2006, 04:43:55 AM »

A lot... the polls seem to suggest there is a pro-Dem swing nation wide (well... it more of an anti-GOP swing but that's by the by), when the Dem are improving in places like Idaho then your probably looking at 80% of states seeing a desernable swing to the Dems, however unlike the Dems in '94 there are fewer Republican who are at risk from small swings... medium to large swings however...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2006, 08:02:12 AM »

I have no idea how to estimate such a thing.  I guess one clue is that the seats that are expected to shift from GOP-> are heavily concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast.  The Dems could pick up ~22 seats or so, and would probably only manage to get about 3 of those from the South (including 2 open seats) and 3 of those from the West (including 2 open seats).  So I would think that the overall swing to the Dems in the South and the West wouldn't actually be *that* big, or else they wouldn't be picking off just one incumbent in each of those regions.  So, probably, a lot of those seats wouldn't see *any* movement towards the Dems.  In the Midwest and Northeast though, there could be a lot of movement towards the Dems......still don't know how I would go from that to an overall percentage of seats though.  Smiley

Oh, another clue would be how many reps from each party were first elected in 2004, and will now be running as incumbents for the first time.  Most of those folks will probably do at least somewhat better as incumbents.  If I had those #'s, I might be able to make an overall guess.
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nclib
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2006, 02:41:35 PM »

The Dems could pick up ~22 seats or so, and would probably only manage to get about 3 of those from the South (including 2 open seats) and 3 of those from the West (including 2 open seats).

South: TX-22, FL-16, FL-22 ??
West: CO-7, NM-1, AZ-8 ??

Are these the six seats you were thinking of? You don't think any other Southern or Western seat could flip?

Oh, another clue would be how many reps from each party were first elected in 2004, and will now be running as incumbents for the first time.  Most of those folks will probably do at least somewhat better as incumbents.  If I had those #'s, I might be able to make an overall guess.


I would agree that most of the seats that would swing to the Republicans would be GOP representatives elected in 2004. There could also be seats that had a strong Dem candidate in '04 and a weak Dem in '06. Overall, I'd say about 85% of seats would swing towards the Dems, as far as margin of victory is concerned.

BTW, does anyone know (or have an approximation of) how many seats swung towards the GOP in 1994?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2006, 03:11:10 PM »

The Dems could pick up ~22 seats or so, and would probably only manage to get about 3 of those from the South (including 2 open seats) and 3 of those from the West (including 2 open seats).

South: TX-22, FL-16, FL-22 ??
West: CO-7, NM-1, AZ-8 ??


Substitute FL22 with NC11, and that's what I was thinking of.

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Well, there's a difference between "could" and "will".  Sure, FL13, FL22, KY4, VA2, and WA8 *could* flip as well, but in a scenario where the Dems pick up around 21-22 seats or so (which is about where many are now putting the over/under), I'd say all of those are more than likely to stay with the GOP, while something like 12-13 of the GOP's losses (including the bulk of the defeated incumbents) will be from seats in IN, OH, PA, NY, and CT.  So if there are hardly any incumbents getting knocked off in the South or West, just how big could the pro-Dem swing in those regions be?  Or has gerrymandering become so severe that almost all of those districts will see a pro-Dem swing, but not enough of one for the GOP incumbents to lose?
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