My Prediction

[ilikeverin]

I thought that if it was a summer state poll and it didn't say Mason-Dixon, you were supposed to burn it. I was under the impression he said to toss all Uni polls.

Re: Vorlon and Uni Polls

He said that Quinnipiac is the only Uni poll that you can 'trust'... it was 2nd tier

[Fritz]

EXTREMELY over-optimistic.  No way Bush does that well.  I'm not saying a Bush win isn't possible, but it will be a lot closer than your map.

[Lunar]

EXTREMELY over-optimistic.  No way Bush does that well.  I'm not saying a Bush win isn't possible, but it will be a lot closer than your map.

Extremely?  Huh?  His map only has Bush winning by a couple points.  Note how New Hampshire goes Kerry.

[Blazers93]

 What does that say? I think it says Kerry BLoWOUT!

[Blazers93]

 Sorry. Kerry BLOWOUT if it shows.

[they don't love you like i love you]

EXTREMELY over-optimistic.  No way Bush does that well.  I'm not saying a Bush win isn't possible, but it will be a lot closer than your map.

Extremely?  Huh?  His map only has Bush winning by a couple points.  Note how New Hampshire goes Kerry.

He has Bush getting over 60% in most southern states, just not possible due to the black population.

[Blazers93]

 Why doesn't my picture show? Kerry, 378-160.

[zachman]

Why doesn't my picture show? Kerry, 378-160.

I browsed and looked at your prediction and it was even more optimistic than mine.

[Lunar]

I'm looking a the states.  We're assuming that if Kerry wins one tossup (New Hampshire) but Bush wins some others, then the race is pretty close.

I don't care if South Carolina is a shade too blue.  Besides, all it would take is a shift of 4% from 2000 to put Bush above 60% in Texas, Alaska, Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, Indiana, and Kentucky.  All states Bush won by less than 60% last time.

[zachman]

I'm looking a the states.  We're assuming that if Kerry wins one tossup (New Hampshire) but Bush wins some others, then the race is pretty close.

I don't care if South Carolina is a shade too blue.  Besides, all it would take is a shift of 4% from 2000 to put Bush above 60% in Texas, Alaska, Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, Indiana, and Kentucky.  All states Bush won by less than 60% last time.

The electorate is heading back towards moderation. Half of Bush's 60% states will trend below 60% and the Northeast will be won by a smaller margin. The south in particular is heading back towards political symmetry.

[Lunar]

Yes, I know.  I'm just saying that a prediction of 4% over the 2000 result in a handful of Southern states isn't that big of a deal.

[classical liberal]

I have two predictions.

If the race ends up tied:



If Bush can't get his sh**t together:

[struct310]

I have two predictions.

If the race ends up tied:



If Bush can't get his sh**t together:

That second prediction is quite off, I dont think people know AZ as well as they believe.

[classical liberal]

The second prediction is for if Bush doesn't get his sh**t together and veto some of this pork coming out of the congress that renigged on its contract with America in almost ever respect.  It was made on the assumption that Nader won't be a factor and that Bush will loose the PV from a 7.5 point turnout deficit resultant from conservative groups not working GOTV this time in protest of profligate spending going through the supposedly conservative government.

[??????????]

To think most GOPers would site home and allow Kerry to be elected whether they like Bush or not is a ridiculous idea to say the least.

[CARLHAYDEN]

This is the first Prediction I have posted in a few months.  If the race stays as is, this is what I believe will happen in Nov.  Fact is, Bush should be ruined after the past two months, but he isn't and I think thats a good sign.

I agree with you prediction in general, and differ in three points.

First, I don't think Bush will get Wisconsin's electoral college votes as the state is wide open for multiple voting (no registration).  If the Republicans put together an effective anti-fraud effort in the state to prevent the multiple voting from Kerry operatives, Bush may get Wisconsin's electoral college votes (I"m not optimistic on this).

Second, Bush will carry New Hampshire.  Many of the voters there fled the liberalism of Kerry and aren't about to vote for him.

Third, Bush will carry the second CD in Maine (he just missed it narrowly in 2000, and seems set to win it in 2004.  Remember, Maine just went through redistricting.

[??????????]

Are their any Maine polls broken down by CD?

[CARLHAYDEN]

None of which I am aware.

[Ben.]

All the Maine Polls have given Kerry a very solid lead from 5% in some polls to massive (rather unrealistic) leads of 51% against 38% for Bush, This is unsurprising really. Bush will not win Maine (or even one of the congressional districts) just as Kerry will not win MO.

I hear many people saying that Kerry is really a good campaigner and yes I admit he has been a good-finisher in the past but I think many democrats have been finding excuses for our nominee. Kerry IMHO will not win unless Iraq remains this bad and if the majority of people perceive it to be in a bad way and so long as Bush is unable to shift t the spotlight to the economy, furthermore while polling routinely shows most people think of the nation being on the “wrong-track”, it does not hold out that the majority of people think Kerry is the right man to put the nation on the “right-track”.

Put simply this is what seems to be emerging as the public’s general attitude, as I see it, so Jo-Public thoughts…

Bush: He’s not an amazing president, but I trust him personally. I don’t trust Cheney or Ashcroft. I’m worried about Iraq but their isn’t any real alternative except stickin it out. On social issues I’m generally in agreement with what Bush has done, on economic issues I worry about outsourcing and unemployment as well as the rising price of petrol. Bush’s tax cuts are good, the war on terror is good and on both counts again I think Bush is in the right. But the outsourcing of jobs, the deficit, the “creepiness” of the broader administration and the situation in iraq are all causes of concern for me.

Kerry: He’s Dull and he doesn’t excite me. I like what I have heard about his health care plan and plan for education but have only heard a little bit (because Kerry is not making the case forcefully enough). I like that he was in Vietnam but he doesn’t offer a credible alternative in Iraq “going to the UN” (NO! JOHN NO!- icsnay on the UN-say… LOL). His soc ail views worry me a bit he seems pretty liberal, I don’t swallow all of Bush social conservatism but I’m far less comfortable with Kerry Liberalism. Furthermore can I relay on this guy?

…that’s not a great rendition of what most people’s attitudes about Kerry and Bush are but its about right.

In short people think that in a choice between Bush and Kerry, Bush is generally ok with some personally strong characteristics. Kerry is an unknown who doesn’t inspire them (or anyone else). Bush is a known quantity you take the good with the bad with “W” but you know where you stand and he won’t do anything radically out of sink with what you support (that same can’t be said of the likes of Cheney or Ashcroft or a large section of the GOP in Congress However). Kerry is an unknown and what is more he is dull, if your taking a risk by electing a new president the fact  that Kerry is a liberal Senator from a Liberal state who does not seem to have a strong and clear approach to the “war on terror” weighs strongly against taking that risk.  

Much as many republicans would disagree with me this is the case…

Bush is not one of the “greats”, he is not a Reagan, a Kennedy or even a Clinton (prior or 1997 lets say )… People however like him on a personal level but this is balanced out by unease over the ideological bent of many within his administration and the Republican Congress.

The Public, if confronted with a strong and engaging Democratic challenger, would probably be leaning strongly against Bush (the president is “Liked” rather than loved). But Kerry is neither strong (thought I would not go as far to say he was weak) nor is he engaging. A engaging populist Like Edwards as a running mate would help Kerry a little nationally but only Kerry can improve his appearance and manner and that is unlikely to happen.


So this election is a “Liked” (with reservations) President running for re-election in what should be a fairly open race against a Democratic Candidate who overall is probably weaker than him. I would say that Bush is set to win by default through Kerry just nether being a strong candidate or the right candidate to challenge him but that would be to underrate Bush and that has been a big mistake for many in he past . But that is basically the case, against a strong, charismatic Democrat Bush would be behind by a noticeable margin in the polls and imho would probably lose against Kerry I think that in the end he will win. And Bush winning might not even be a terrible thing just so long as the Democrats retake the senate .


...this is how the race looks to me at the moment... although I think Kerry could (With Iraq still deteriorating and with Edwards as VP) pull of wins in both WI and PA and perhaps even WV but OBP i doubt it...
 

[Gustaf]

A lot of predictions floating around right now.

I think that with the economy improving some and the Iraq war looking worse and worse we'll see a slide into culture war positions rather than class war. This will help Kerry firm up his support in the Northeast and the Dem-leaning parts of the Midwest, but shut him out in the steel states and the South. Supersoulty's prediction isn't bad, but I  see Kerry holding on to WI, MN and IA gaining NH and with PA, NM and OR being tossups.

[??????????]

If Bush can show us, as is the truth, that things in Iraq ARE getting a lot better then I think he will have this thing locked up tight. Expect gas to go down 20 cents in August/September.

[MODU]

Gas here in Northern VA has dropped from $1.97 last weekend to $1.89.  Anything under $2.00 is acceptable to me.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Since the Democrats control everything in Maine, they obviously redistricted it to make the second district more safe, and there was a poll giving Kerry somewhere around a 16 point lead even after Nader took 5%. With those numbers, Kerry has both districts locked up. The economy in ME-2 has massively deteoriated.

[minionofmidas]

Since the Democrats control everything in Maine, they obviously redistricted it to make the second district more safe, and there was a poll giving Kerry somewhere around a 16 point lead even after Nader took 5%. With those numbers, Kerry has both districts locked up. The economy in ME-2 has massively deteoriated.

They didn't redistrict it that much. But yeah, it got safer. The numbers are here in a buried thread somewhere.

[Blazers93]

Not for the Iraqis. They are much more scared of Americans than Hussein and other Iraqi criminals.