My Prediction (user search)
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Author Topic: My Prediction  (Read 5990 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,070
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« on: June 01, 2004, 01:54:19 AM »

Kerry will win Wisconsin. There is no way a state will vote for both Feingold and Bush, and Feingold is looking safe.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,070
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2004, 06:38:18 PM »

EXTREMELY over-optimistic.  No way Bush does that well.  I'm not saying a Bush win isn't possible, but it will be a lot closer than your map.

Extremely?  Huh?  His map only has Bush winning by a couple points.  Note how New Hampshire goes Kerry.

He has Bush getting over 60% in most southern states, just not possible due to the black population.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,070
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2004, 11:11:55 AM »
« Edited: June 03, 2004, 11:12:24 AM by Better Red Than Dead »

Since the Democrats control everything in Maine, they obviously redistricted it to make the second district more safe, and there was a poll giving Kerry somewhere around a 16 point lead even after Nader took 5%. With those numbers, Kerry has both districts locked up. The economy in ME-2 has massively deteoriated.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,070
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2004, 07:44:16 PM »
« Edited: June 03, 2004, 07:45:09 PM by Better Red Than Dead »

Bush hit his ceiling in those states in 2000. The only whites who didn't vote for him are the few poor liberals stuck in those nightmarish hellholes, and that won't change this year. He'd have to get around 90% of the white vote in Mississippi to get 60%. Plus all three of those states have gained black population since 2000, there's been a bit of a migration of blacks back to the south.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,070
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2004, 07:57:06 PM »

What makes you think Bush is going to improve in the Deep South? He basically got as much as the white vote that's possible in 2000.
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