I'm looking a the states. We're assuming that if Kerry wins one tossup (New Hampshire) but Bush wins some others, then the race is pretty close.
I don't care if South Carolina is a shade too blue. Besides, all it would take is a shift of 4% from 2000 to put Bush above 60% in Texas, Alaska, Montana, Kansas, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, Indiana, and Kentucky. All states Bush won by less than 60% last time.
The electorate is heading back towards moderation. Half of Bush's 60% states will trend below 60% and the Northeast will be won by a smaller margin. The south in particular is heading back towards political symmetry.
