This is the first Prediction I have posted in a few months. If the race stays as is, this is what I believe will happen in Nov. Fact is, Bush should be ruined after the past two months, but he isn't and I think thats a good sign.
I agree with you prediction in general, and differ in three points.
First, I don't think Bush will get Wisconsin's electoral college votes as the state is wide open for multiple voting (no registration). If the Republicans put together an effective anti-fraud effort in the state to prevent the multiple voting from Kerry operatives, Bush may get Wisconsin's electoral college votes (I"m not optimistic on this).
Second, Bush will carry New Hampshire. Many of the voters there fled the liberalism of Kerry and aren't about to vote for him.
Third, Bush will carry the second CD in Maine (he just missed it narrowly in 2000, and seems set to win it in 2004. Remember, Maine just went through redistricting.
