All the Maine Polls have given Kerry a very solid lead from 5% in some polls to massive (rather unrealistic) leads of 51% against 38% for Bush, This is unsurprising really. Bush will not win Maine (or even one of the congressional districts) just as Kerry will not win MO.
I hear many people saying that Kerry is really a good campaigner and yes I admit he has been a good-finisher in the past but I think many democrats have been finding excuses for our nominee. Kerry IMHO will not win unless Iraq remains this bad and if the majority of people perceive it to be in a bad way and so long as Bush is unable to shift t the spotlight to the economy, furthermore while polling routinely shows most people think of the nation being on the “wrong-track”, it does not hold out that the majority of people think Kerry is the right man to put the nation on the “right-track”.
Put simply this is what seems to be emerging as the public’s general attitude, as I see it, so Jo-Public thoughts…
Bush: He’s not an amazing president, but I trust him personally. I don’t trust Cheney or Ashcroft. I’m worried about Iraq but their isn’t any real alternative except stickin it out. On social issues I’m generally in agreement with what Bush has done, on economic issues I worry about outsourcing and unemployment as well as the rising price of petrol. Bush’s tax cuts are good, the war on terror is good and on both counts again I think Bush is in the right. But the outsourcing of jobs, the deficit, the “creepiness” of the broader administration and the situation in iraq are all causes of concern for me.
Kerry: He’s Dull and he doesn’t excite me. I like what I have heard about his health care plan and plan for education but have only heard a little bit (because Kerry is not making the case forcefully enough). I like that he was in Vietnam but he doesn’t offer a credible alternative in Iraq “going to the UN” (NO! JOHN NO!- icsnay on the UN-say… LOL). His soc ail views worry me a bit he seems pretty liberal, I don’t swallow all of Bush social conservatism but I’m far less comfortable with Kerry Liberalism. Furthermore can I relay on this guy?
…that’s not a great rendition of what most people’s attitudes about Kerry and Bush are but its about right.
In short people think that in a choice between Bush and Kerry, Bush is generally ok with some personally strong characteristics. Kerry is an unknown who doesn’t inspire them (or anyone else). Bush is a known quantity you take the good with the bad with “W” but you know where you stand and he won’t do anything radically out of sink with what you support (that same can’t be said of the likes of Cheney or Ashcroft or a large section of the GOP in Congress However). Kerry is an unknown and what is more he is dull, if your taking a risk by electing a new president the fact that Kerry is a liberal Senator from a Liberal state who does not seem to have a strong and clear approach to the “war on terror” weighs strongly against taking that risk.
Much as many republicans would disagree with me this is the case…
Bush is not one of the “greats”, he is not a Reagan, a Kennedy or even a Clinton (prior or 1997 lets say
)… People however like him on a personal level but this is balanced out by unease over the ideological bent of many within his administration and the Republican Congress.
The Public, if confronted with a strong and engaging Democratic challenger, would probably be leaning strongly against Bush (the president is “Liked” rather than loved). But Kerry is neither strong (thought I would not go as far to say he was weak) nor is he engaging. A engaging populist Like Edwards as a running mate would help Kerry a little nationally but only Kerry can improve his appearance and manner and that is unlikely to happen.
So this election is a “Liked” (with reservations) President running for re-election in what should be a fairly open race against a Democratic Candidate who overall is probably weaker than him. I would say that Bush is set to win by default through Kerry just nether being a strong candidate or the right candidate to challenge him but that would be to underrate Bush and that has been a big mistake for many in he past
. But that is basically the case, against a strong, charismatic Democrat Bush would be behind by a noticeable margin in the polls and imho would probably lose against Kerry I think that in the end he will win. And Bush winning might not even be a terrible thing just so long as the Democrats retake the senate
.
...this is how the race looks to me at the moment... although I think Kerry could (With Iraq still deteriorating and with Edwards as VP) pull of wins in both WI and PA and perhaps even WV but OBP i doubt it...
