Survey USA 50 State Senate Poll

[Smash255]

6 Senators 70% or over (4 Dems & the 2 GOP Maine Senators)
Johnson D-SD 72-22
Snowe  R-ME 72-24
Collins R-ME 72-25
Conrad  D-ND 71-24
Dorgan D-ND 71-25
Obama D-IL 70-25

Three Senators with 0 net approval (2 dems, 1 GOP)
Frist 47-47
Bill nelson 42-42 D-FL (interesting, though even if more than a blip or outlier means nada with Harris, with his approval in the other recent polls this looks like an outlier)
Menendez 39-39 D-NJ

12 Senators with Neg Approval (10 republicans, 2 Dems)

Chambliss R-GA 44-45
Martinez R-FL 43-44
Talent R-MO 43-44
Allard R-CO 44-46
Kyl  R-AZ 44-47
Cornyn R-TX 43-47
Burr R-NC 41-45
Dayton D-MN 41-46
Lautenberg D-NJ 39-45
Bunning R-KY 40-48
Burns R-MT 40-56
Santorum R-PA 36-57

Link to these & the rest

http://surveyusa.com/50State2006/100USSenatorApproval060523Net.htm

[Gabu]

This is interesting:



Perhaps the people of Kansas are finally getting tired of Brownback not considering them constituents?

[HardRCafé]

The Chambliss numbers make no sense.  The DeWine numbers are not available, apparently.

[Smash255]

The Chambliss numbers make no sense.  The DeWine numbers are not available, apparently.

Their is always a chance of an outlier,  but he has had a several months where he has been within a few points of where he is now, so its not like he is that far off from any other month.  His disapproval went up a bit, but his approval has only been above 50 a couple times & that was only 51%, and is only about 3-4 points below his average approval for the last year.

Don't know what problem you had getting into Dewine, pulled right up for me.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4937ce44-a9dd-409c-9415-c515bfdc2eb0

[ian]

Why so many sudden changes?  Did SUSA change their math?
Landrieu, Coleman, Lott, Johnson, Durbin, Chaffee up drastically, as I can recall.
Pryor, Bennett, Akaka, Smith, Dole, Bond, Brownback, Reid, Sarbanes, Sununu, Feingold, Isakson, Frist, Chambliss, Allard, Kyl, and Burr down drastically???
These are huge blips.

[WMS]

Wow, you simply cannot knock Domenici below 60% approval, and you can't even get 33% to disapprove!

Not that Bingaman has to worry - still very strong, if a little bit less approved of than Domenici.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush fatigue must be setting in. Of the 10 most popular Senators, 8 are Democrats, and the 2 Republcians are about as moderate as Republicans get (the 2 ME Senators). Reasonably liberal Leahy, Reed, and Obama are included in the top 10.

[nclib]

Bush fatigue must be setting in. Of the 10 most popular Senators, 8 are Democrats, and the 2 Republcians are about as moderate as Republicans get (the 2 ME Senators). Reasonably liberal Leahy, Reed, and Obama are included in the top 10.

Yes, and of the 12 Senators with negative net approval, 10 are Republicans and all of them are pretty conservative.

[Cashcow]

A grand total of 39% approve of Menendez! Wow! How surprising

[Alcon]

Maybe Cashcow or some other New Jersey person can clarify this, but what's been up with New Jersey polls lately?  Both match polls and approval polls are showing a weird number of undecideds relative to other states.

[Gabu]

Maybe Cashcow or some other New Jersey person can clarify this, but what's been up with New Jersey polls lately?  Both match polls and approval polls are showing a weird number of undecideds relative to other states.

Maybe they're finally looking at all of the available politicians and thinking to themselves, "OH sh**t we're in NEW JERSEY".

[Cashcow]

Maybe Cashcow or some other New Jersey person can clarify this, but what's been up with New Jersey polls lately?  Both match polls and approval polls are showing a weird number of undecideds relative to other states.

We honestly have no idea what the hell is going on. I can't explain this. Nobody seems very fond of Menendez (I'm certainly not); Lautenberg has been dead for at least 50 years; in general, state politics are a huge mess.

What else is new?

[ATFFL]

New Jersey usually has a lot of undecideds.  This is a lot even for them though.  It could be a case of kean being a very good NJ Republican and menendez being, well, scum.  They are so used ot supporting Dems it can be hard to change.

Or they are just being more new Jerseyian than usual.

[Moooooo]

Why is Thune so unpopular compared to Dorgan, Conrad, and Johnson?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Someone explain to me why Santorum is going to win again? Now you got these numbers in addition to the match up ones.

Why is Thune so unpopular compared to Dorgan, Conrad, and Johnson?

Because the Democrats are approved of by almost all the Democrats in those states and about half the Republicans. Thune is only approved by Republicans.

[ag]

Maybe Cashcow or some other New Jersey person can clarify this, but what's been up with New Jersey polls lately?  Both match polls and approval polls are showing a weird number of undecideds relative to other states.

The Jersey problem is the local politicians are dominated by their neighbors. Very few people live outside the NYC and Philly media markets, so they tend to know more about politicians in the neighboring states than about their own (this would be even more true between elections, when the NYT and the Philadelphia Inquirer, as well as the local TV and radio stations, don't have much reason to cover Jersey politicians).  This might account for consistently high number of undecideds: they might have clearer views on NY and PA senators and governors.

[nclib]

Interesting, considering that they [NJ] have only voted Democrat for president 5 times...the last 4 elections and the Johnson landslide.

They've gone Democratic other times too, but before 1960.

[True Democrat]

Here's approval maps (if a Senator is disapproved of, the color of the opposite party is used, for example, Kyl):

Senior:



Juinor:

[12th Doctor]

Maybe Cashcow or some other New Jersey person can clarify this, but what's been up with New Jersey polls lately?  Both match polls and approval polls are showing a weird number of undecideds relative to other states.

Maybe they're finally looking at all of the available politicians and thinking to themselves, "OH sh**t we're in NEW JERSEY".

ROTFLMAO

[Jake]

Someone explain to me why Santorum is going to win again? Now you got these numbers in addition to the match up ones.

Explain how a 50-35-12 party breakdown is representative of PA *at all*.

[Smash255]

Someone explain to me why Santorum is going to win again? Now you got these numbers in addition to the match up ones.

Explain how a 50-35-12 party breakdown is representative of PA *at all*.

His #'s are brutal regardless.  I decided to see what his approvals would be using a few different serts of a partisan breakdown

42% Dem, 38% GOP. 20% Ind Santorum would be at 37.3 % approve/ 56.5% disapprove

Using a 40% Dem, 35% GOP, 25% Ind,  Santorum would be at 37.1% approve, 56.8% disapprove

Using a 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind breakdown, Santorum is at 36.6% approve, 57.4% disapprove

And even if you split into 3 ways making it 33.33% each Santorum is only at 37.6% approve, 56.4% disapprove

PS is generally about 4-6 points more Dem than GOP, and in a year like this could be more of 7-10 points in the state (depending on the political situation of the time a state could swing a few points in its party representation from its typical representation

[HardRCafé]

Don't forget Christine Todd Whitman!

Can't we, please?