Alcon
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,866
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« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2006, 10:30:34 AM » |
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Cantwell's numbers are not "tanking." Look at the polls so far - the last one was +5 too. She was up 13 before, yes, but McGavick has gained six points because people now know who he is, and he's not nuts. Over the entire time, Cantwell has lost only two points -- not great, given, but hardly a freefall.
Now, look at the 2004 polls for Washington. I am not saying that Cantwell cannot lose, but once both candidates are both decently well-known, polling will usually get really, really boring.
I've been saying for a while that, if someone put a knife to my throat and made me make a projection on a race this far out (which I hate), I'd say Cantwell would win by a bit less than Kerry. Cantwell +5 supports this.
I think Murray also polled pretty close to Nethercutt in the early year too, but then again Nethercutt made a fool of himself. McGavick probably isn't as prone to that, and we know Cantwell isn't (certainly less than Murray).
Cantwell's best trait, which helps her in debates and campaigns, is that she is amiable. Even if I disagree with her, she seems like a decent person, but in a business-like way. It is kind of hard to explain, but it translates well in debates and ads and makes it hard to attack her on fundamentals -- something which McGavick may need to do to win.
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