1980 without Carter

[adam]

If you remember your history correctly; the charasmatic congressman from Arizona, Mo Udall, was a shoo-in to win the 1976 Democratic primary. He narrowly lost under murky circumstamces. However, let's go back and say that he won the primary and the 1976 election. He handles the economy more conservativly than Carter and exerts a deal of leadership in the Iran hostage situation.

Who wins the election of 1980

Reagan/Bush or Udall/Mondale?

[Nym90]

I think that Udall would have made a very good President, although to a large extent the problems that plagued Carter would have been there no matter who was President. Not saying someone else couldn't have done better, but it was a perfect storm of sorts and a lot of things were out of control of the President.

[HardRCafé]

Mo Udall, was a shoe in to win the 1976 Democratic primary.

Shoo-in.

[adam]

Mo Udall, was a shoe in to win the 1976 Democratic primary.

Shoo-in.

Oops. Thanks. I was headed out the door as I finished this post.

[Lincoln Republican]

A much closer election between Reagan and Udall, than between Reagan and Carter, however, the conservative/moderate ticket of Reagan/Bush defeats the very liberal ticket of Udall/Mondale.

The U.S. economy is stagnant, and even though President Udall handles the Iran hostage situation well, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan resulted in serious setbacks for the U.S.

As well, the independent candidacy of the ticket of liberal Republican John Anderson and liberal Democrat Patrick Lucey, draws votes away from liberals Udall and Mondale. 

Instead of Reagan 489, Carter 49

Tally is Reagan 305, Udall 233 

[True Democrat]

A much closer election between Reagan and Udall, than between Reagan and Carter, however, the conservative/moderate ticket of Reagan/Bush defeats the very liberal ticket of Udall/Mondale.

The U.S. economy is stagnant, and even though President Udall handles the Iran hostage situation well, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan resulted in serious setbacks for the U.S.

As well, the independent candidacy of the ticket of liberal Republican John Anderson and liberal Democrat Patrick Lucey, draws votes away from liberals Udall and Mondale. 

Instead of Reagan 489, Carter 49

Tally is Reagan 305, Udall 233 

You can't apply a 2004 type map to 1980.  Udall would be a lot more likely to win Missouri than Vermont.

[Lincoln Republican]

In 1980, Reagan defeated Carter in Vermont by 5.96% and he defeated Carter in Missouri by 6.81%.

It is more likely for liberal Udall to win Vermont in 1980 than for him to have won Missouri against conservative Reagan. 

[adam]

As well, the independent candidacy of the ticket of liberal Republican John Anderson and liberal Democrat Patrick Lucey, draws votes away from liberals Udall and Mondale. 

Hm, that's a tough call to make. I saw it more as Carter pushing votes to Anderson rather than Anderson taking them. You'll notice that all through the election that Anderson's numbers slowly leaked back to Carter until Anderson finished with a relatively good 7%. I think an Udall ticket could have slumped the Anderson ticket even farther down to say a more insignificant 3%.

I think that will you are right about the soviet threat, I think people will trust Udall enough to let him finish. Kind of like Bush in 04', Udall will face a lot of hardship but in general the politic of fear will give him a needed boost. My prediction:

Udall/Mondale - 50% - 282 EVs
Reagan/Bush - 48% - 256 EVs
Anderson/Lucey - 2%

[Lincoln Republican]

Regardless, there would still be a split in the more liberal vote, with Anderson drawing a share, at the expense of Udall.  This could only hurt the Udall candidacy.

[kashifsakhan]

Regardless, there would still be a split in the more liberal vote, with Anderson drawing a share, at the expense of Udall.  This could only hurt the Udall candidacy.

I dont think a split would really be strong enough to cost Udall the presidency. I just dont see Anderson as being strong enough to swing an election, like Perot in 1992 or Nader in 2000.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

(Udall) exerts a deal of leadership in the Iran hostage situation.

I think that Udall would have been able to convince the electorate that deaths were a result of SAVAK's overreaction to the event, but after Reza Pahlavi I's death in in 1980, he'd be able to repair the breach in relations with Iran with his son Reza Pahlavi II.