June 6th Primaries: NM, MS, CA, IA, AL, NJ, MT, SD
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  June 6th Primaries: NM, MS, CA, IA, AL, NJ, MT, SD
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Author Topic: June 6th Primaries: NM, MS, CA, IA, AL, NJ, MT, SD  (Read 8757 times)
Sarnstrom
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« on: May 28, 2006, 12:17:23 PM »
« edited: May 28, 2006, 12:23:28 PM by Sarnstrom »

June 6th is a big day for state primaries. Races to watch:

New Mexico:
GOP Gubernatorial Primary (Damron vs. Bailey)
GOP Senatorial Primary (Carraro vs. Pfeffer)

Mississippi:
DEM Senatorial Primary (Fleming vs. Bowlin vs. O'Keefe)

California:
DEM Gubernatorial Primary (Angelides vs. Westly)
DEM LT. Gubernatorial Primary (Garamendi vs. Figueroa vs. Speier)
District 50 - Special Election (Busby vs. Bilbray)

Iowa:
DEM Gubernatorial Primary (Culver vs. Blouin)
District 1 - DEM Primary (Braley vs. Dickinson)
District 1 - GOP Primary (Dix vs. Kennedy vs. Whalen)

Alabama:
DEM Gubernatorial Primary (Siegelman vs. Baxley)
GOP Gubernatorial Primary (Riley vs. Moore)

New Jersey:
District 13 - DEM Primary (Vas vs. Sires)

Montana:
DEM Senatorial Primary (Morrison vs. Tester)

South Dakota:
DEM Gubernatorial Primary (Billion vs. Wiese)

This should be an exciting night!
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2006, 12:31:48 PM »

June 6th is a big day for state primaries. Races to watch:

New Mexico:
GOP Gubernatorial Primary (Damron vs. Bailey)
GOP Senatorial Primary (Carraro vs. Pfeffer)
Take both off watchlist since none of them'll stand a chance in the general.

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Take off watchlist since whoever wins won't stand a chance in the general, and IIRC the primary too is a foregone conclusion.

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Watch. Intently.
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Don't know.
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Watch. Intently.

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Don't know.
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Watch. Intently.

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Watch. Although I guess either'll lose.
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Watch; although Riley'll win, Moore's numbers (and their distribution) will be interesting.

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Watch. Intently.

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Watch. Intently.

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Watch, although either'll lose.
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socaldem
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2006, 05:35:47 PM »

NM

The primary to watch here is the Dem primaries for statewide office.  The AG primary, in particular, should be interesting with Gubernatorial scion and '04 NM-02 Congressional nominee Gary King facing off against Geno Zamora an ex-aide to Gov. Richardson.  King had an early advantage because of name ID but I expect Zamora to win.

There are also contested Democratic primaries for secretary of state, auditor and land comissioner.  I expect Democrats are favored in all of these races in November.

MS

The race to watch here is the 2nd district congressional primary where state Rep. Chuck Espy, nephew to former Ag Sec. Mike Espy is challenging Rep. Benny Thompson in the primary.  Thompson is a rather divisive figure who gets support almost exclusively from African-American voters while the Espy family has shown greater cross-over appeal.  The Espy candidacy hasn't really caught on and I don't expect him to win, though it would have been nice to have an up and coming African-American who might have one day had statewide appeal...  At the same time, I think Thompson has done pretty well as ranking member on Homeland Security, so I don't think his constituents will see any reason to toss him out of office...

CA

Primary day will be huge in Cali!  But mostly on the state level, where there are a huge number of open assembly and senate districts (courtesy of term limits) in which Democrats and Republicans have fierce intra-party skirmishes. 

Of course, there are also congressional races with the most important being the CA-50 special election between Francine Busby and Brian Bilbray and the primary for the same race where Bilbray faces opposition from conservative businessman Bill Hauf (who doesn't seem to be getting much support).

The other race to watch is CA-11 where Richard Pombo faces a challenge from liberal Republican Pete McCloskey and the Democratic primary features a brawl between DCCC-backed airline piolt Steve Filson and wind turbine manufacturer Jerry McNerney.  Normally in a primary like this in a GOP-leaning district, I support the candidate with the best shot in the general, which would seem to be the more moderate-conservative Filson.  Filson, though, has been pathetic at fundraising and is a pretty lousy, uninspiring candidate who I don't think can win.  So, I suppose, McNerney might as well be the nominee because at least he has grassroots and labour enthusiasm on his side.  I expect the general here to be pretty competitive because there will be a ton of pro-environment third party expenditures.

The governors race is a tough call.  Phil Angelides is a smart policy wonk who I think would govern well but I'm not sure he'd be a popular governor because he's not particularly likeable or inspiring to the broad mass of people who are not Democratic activists/policy wonks.  Even if he were elected, would he be popular enough to push through his agenda?

Steve Westly, meanwhile, can be exactly the type of candidate that can win and be popular but I think he may lack something in substance...

I think the race is a toss-up and I'm leaning towards Westly, who I think is a better candidate and would be a decent and popular governor.  That said, I think Angelides may have a slight edge in the primary.

The LG primary is one of several musical chair races.  Insurance Comissioner Garamendi, who's a good public official but has, imo, been around the block one too many times faces the nails-smart Jackie Speier, whom I support.  Speier, however, will lose some female voters to Senator Liz Figueroa, so I expect Garamendi to win the primary.

The AG primary will go to Jerry Brown in a walk.  And he deserves to win over Rocky Delgadillo, L.A.'s all too developer-friendly city attorney.  Brown also has tons of experience, having been mayor of Oakland for two years, and, of course two-term governor of California from 1975-1983.

For SoS Debra Bowen and Deborah Ortiz are locked in a tight race.  Bowen is expected to win because she has the most establishment support.  This should be a tough race for the fall, though, because the Dem has to face incumbent Bruce McPherson who was appointed after disgraced Democrat Kevin Shelley resigned.

State Controller features tight primaries on both sides and will be competitive in the fall.  Orange Co.'s lone Dem State Sen. Joe Dunn faces John Chiang in the primary.  Dunn has tried to play up his role fighting for the state against Enron.  Chiang, meanwhile, is a super-smart up-and-comer, but has not run the most vigorous campaign.  Both are from the L.A. area, so it really depends on who can pick up the most support up North.  Polls show Dunn ahead, but I'm rooting for Chiang and think he has a chance.

On the GOP side, moderate Central coast state sen Abel Maldonado faces off against conservative ex-assemblyman Tony Strickland.  If Maldonado were to win the primary, he'd have a chance in the fall, but I expect Strickland to win and to lose to the Democrat.

AG Bill Lockyer is a lock for the Dem nod for treasurer and though the gop has a contested primary, it doesn't matter, because Lockyer will likely win the general, too.

Cruz Bustamonte will win the Dem nod for insurance comissioner, but I can't see him winning in the fall because of his baggage from the failed bid for governor during the recall.  Moreover, he faces a tough opponent in moderate GOPer Steve Poizner.

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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2006, 03:53:36 PM »

So far I voted

Garamendi for Lt. Governor
Bowen for Secretary of State
Brown for Attorney General
Kraft for Insurance Commissioner

I'd prefer Angelides, but I might end up voting Westly if I think he has a better chance of winning. After all a flaming bag of dogsh**t would be far preferable to the One-Term-Inator.
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socaldem
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2006, 11:40:32 PM »

So far I voted

Garamendi for Lt. Governor
Bowen for Secretary of State
Brown for Attorney General
Kraft for Insurance Commissioner

I'd prefer Angelides, but I might end up voting Westly if I think he has a better chance of winning. After all a flaming bag of dogsh**t would be far preferable to the One-Term-Inator.

What about Controller?

I highly, highly recommend Chiang;  I think he's a bit to the left of Dunn plus he's an absolutely brilliant guy perfect for the position whereas Dunn had hoped to run for AG but decided to run for controller because he was afraid of challenging Brown.

Plus, it'll be nice to have at least one non-white statewide officeholder.

Why, by the way, Garamendi over Speier?  I'm leaning Speier but am more-or-less on the fence on that one.
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WMS
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« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2006, 04:16:22 PM »

New Mexico:
GOP Gubernatorial Primary (Damron vs. Bailey)
GOP Senatorial Primary (Carraro vs. Pfeffer)
Take both off watchlist since none of them'll stand a chance in the general.
Absoutely. All the excitement in these races ends the second the primary winner is declared. It's like the 1984 Democratic or 1996 Republican Presidential primaries. Smiley

NM

The primary to watch here is the Dem primaries for statewide office.  The AG primary, in particular, should be interesting with Gubernatorial scion and '04 NM-02 Congressional nominee Gary King facing off against Geno Zamora an ex-aide to Gov. Richardson.  King had an early advantage because of name ID but I expect Zamora to win.

There are also contested Democratic primaries for secretary of state, auditor and land comissioner.  I expect Democrats are favored in all of these races in November.

Yup. And don't forget about Lemuel Martinez in the AG race. Wink Actually, as long as lapdog-to-Richardson-in-waiting Zamora doesn't win I'd be satisfied. Smiley The Republican will probably end up losing this one.

Secretary of State is a spectacularly bloody 4-way brawl, and no clear frontrunner. My old boss is running...and I hope she loses. Grin The Republicans have a rather appealing candidate for this race so while the Dems are still favored they have a better shot.

Auditor...*yawn* Armijo has gotten some splashes from the Vigil corruption scandal, and his opponent Buckner has gotten all the newspaper endorsements. Sadly, the Hispanic-vote-bloc will probably elect Armijo anyway. Tongue Oddly enough, this is usually such a low-key race that it could be competitive - the Republicans ran someone who was borderline insane last time around and got 48%. Cheesy

Land Commissioner will be fun. Grin In the big upset of 2002 now-incumbent Patrick Lyons won a narrow victory over ubercorrupt Art Trujillo, and has done pretty well in the job. Both Powell and Baca are envirolefties, so this could be quite a pitched battle both in the primary and in the general. As in 2002, expect Bernalillo County to decide this one.
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jfern
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2006, 04:21:43 PM »

So far I voted

Garamendi for Lt. Governor
Bowen for Secretary of State
Brown for Attorney General
Kraft for Insurance Commissioner

I'd prefer Angelides, but I might end up voting Westly if I think he has a better chance of winning. After all a flaming bag of dogsh**t would be far preferable to the One-Term-Inator.

What about Controller?

I highly, highly recommend Chiang;  I think he's a bit to the left of Dunn plus he's an absolutely brilliant guy perfect for the position whereas Dunn had hoped to run for AG but decided to run for controller because he was afraid of challenging Brown.

Plus, it'll be nice to have at least one non-white statewide officeholder.

Why, by the way, Garamendi over Speier?  I'm leaning Speier but am more-or-less on the fence on that one.

In addition to Governor, I have not voted yet for Controller.

Both Speier and Garamendi seem good, too late to change my vote, though. If you vote Speier, we can cancel each other out. Smiley
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2006, 06:07:31 PM »

I can't wait for the Montana Senate (D) primary results.

I think Tester is going to squeek by Morrison.
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The Duke
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2006, 10:10:33 PM »

Speier is the Democrats best candidate for Lt. Governor.  Westly is the better candidate for Governor.

Angelides and Garamendi will win the primaries.

CA-50 is a toss-up.  Bilbray is a ridiculously bad candidate.  He's been out of the game too long and mostly just runs attack ads.
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socaldem
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« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2006, 04:22:32 AM »

Speier is the Democrats best candidate for Lt. Governor.  Westly is the better candidate for Governor.

Angelides and Garamendi will win the primaries.

CA-50 is a toss-up.  Bilbray is a ridiculously bad candidate.  He's been out of the game too long and mostly just runs attack ads.

Seeing the footage of Garamendi in the debate, he strikes me as not-ready-for-primetime, but that's pretty sad when he's been around the block so many times in the past twenty years.  Sure, I probably disagree with him on few issues, but he's way too inarculate and the Democrats need a healthy bench for the soon-to-be-open Feinstein seat.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2006, 07:15:30 AM »

New Mexico:
GOP Gubernatorial Primary (Damron vs. Bailey)
GOP Senatorial Primary (Carraro vs. Pfeffer)
Take both off watchlist since none of them'll stand a chance in the general.
Absoutely. All the excitement in these races ends the second the primary winner is declared. It's like the 1984 Democratic or 1996 Republican Presidential primaries. Smiley

NM

The primary to watch here is the Dem primaries for statewide office.  The AG primary, in particular, should be interesting with Gubernatorial scion and '04 NM-02 Congressional nominee Gary King facing off against Geno Zamora an ex-aide to Gov. Richardson.  King had an early advantage because of name ID but I expect Zamora to win.

There are also contested Democratic primaries for secretary of state, auditor and land comissioner.  I expect Democrats are favored in all of these races in November.

Yup. And don't forget about Lemuel Martinez in the AG race. Wink
I like that name. I've always thought it sounds cool when Spaniards or Frenchmen have Old Testament names - don't know why actually.
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It's so low-key that everyone just votes their party affiliation?
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WMS
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« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2006, 01:53:44 PM »

Yup. And don't forget about Lemuel Martinez in the AG race. Wink
I like that name. I've always thought it sounds cool when Spaniards or Frenchmen have Old Testament names - don't know why actually.
Agreed Kiki and Lemuel has done a good job as District Attorney for the Thirteenth Judicial District. Pity he's almost certainly not going to win, but NM Dems have been consistently electing people I don't like in primaries for quite some time Tongue

Auditor...*yawn* Armijo has gotten some splashes from the Vigil corruption scandal, and his opponent Buckner has gotten all the newspaper endorsements. Sadly, the Hispanic-vote-bloc will probably elect Armijo anyway. Tongue Oddly enough, this is usually such a low-key race that it could be competitive - the Republicans ran someone who was borderline insane last time around and got 48%. Cheesy
It's so low-key that everyone just votes their party affiliation?
Exactly. Smiley The County map for the 2002 Auditor race was very striking, actually, in almost-entirely showing the basic partisanship of every county in NM. Wink
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Citizen James
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« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2006, 09:42:58 PM »

Speier is the Democrats best candidate for Lt. Governor.  Westly is the better candidate for Governor.

Angelides and Garamendi will win the primaries.

CA-50 is a toss-up.  Bilbray is a ridiculously bad candidate.  He's been out of the game too long and mostly just runs attack ads.

Seeing the footage of Garamendi in the debate, he strikes me as not-ready-for-primetime, but that's pretty sad when he's been around the block so many times in the past twenty years.  Sure, I probably disagree with him on few issues, but he's way too inarculate and the Democrats need a healthy bench for the soon-to-be-open Feinstein seat.

Why is the Feinstein seat soon to be empty?  Is she planning retirement, or planning on seeking higher office?

And yes, I think Angeledes has the edge - though both candidates are well funded, and Westly polls slightly better against Arnold, Angeledes has the backing of much of the party machinery, including several prominent endorsements.
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Citizen James
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« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2006, 10:34:15 PM »

Meanwhile, here in my home district (CA-24), there is a slight chance of a congressional upset.  Naturally, I won't be voting in the GOP primary, though I wouldn't be suprised if some non-partisans chose to vote in the locally hotly debated congressional Republican primary insteand of the very ugly Democratic gubenatorial primary.

Tenenbaum seems to be running a fairly strong ground game, while Gallegly has made several stumbles - such as his last minute withdrawal for medical reasons, followed by his reentry into the race and disaperance of mystery ailment.

In the local editorial page battles, Gallegly's supporters bring up his usual 'tough on immigration' stance and his reputation for constituent service.  Tenenbaum's supporters run on his call for fiscal responsibility, point out that all representitives do constituent service, and not that for a senior member of congress, Gallegly is known for little more beyond towing the party line.

Still, incumbency and a huge war chest are signifigant advantages.  I would still consider Tenenbaum a long shot, but more of a 10-1 long shot; rather than the 100-1 or 1000-1 odds common for so many congressional longshots.
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The Duke
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2006, 01:15:45 AM »

Speier is the Democrats best candidate for Lt. Governor.  Westly is the better candidate for Governor.

Angelides and Garamendi will win the primaries.

CA-50 is a toss-up.  Bilbray is a ridiculously bad candidate.  He's been out of the game too long and mostly just runs attack ads.

Seeing the footage of Garamendi in the debate, he strikes me as not-ready-for-primetime, but that's pretty sad when he's been around the block so many times in the past twenty years.  Sure, I probably disagree with him on few issues, but he's way too inarculate and the Democrats need a healthy bench for the soon-to-be-open Feinstein seat.

Why is the Feinstein seat soon to be empty?  Is she planning retirement, or planning on seeking higher office?

Feinstein will be 79 years old in 2012, making her less than sure to run for a term beyond the one she is currently seeking.
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WMS
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2006, 12:47:10 PM »

Yup. And don't forget about Lemuel Martinez in the AG race. Wink
I like that name. I've always thought it sounds cool when Spaniards or Frenchmen have Old Testament names - don't know why actually.
Agreed Kiki and Lemuel has done a good job as District Attorney for the Thirteenth Judicial District. Pity he's almost certainly not going to win, but NM Dems have been consistently electing people I don't like in primaries for quite some time Tongue
Per information I received from a very reliable source...Lemuel actually doesn't do anything involving legal actions, and has his staff do all the work. So now I'm rooting for Gary King to win this one...
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2006, 01:26:56 PM »

Yup. And don't forget about Lemuel Martinez in the AG race. Wink
I like that name. I've always thought it sounds cool when Spaniards or Frenchmen have Old Testament names - don't know why actually.
Agreed Kiki and Lemuel has done a good job as District Attorney for the Thirteenth Judicial District. Pity he's almost certainly not going to win, but NM Dems have been consistently electing people I don't like in primaries for quite some time Tongue
Per information I received from a very reliable source...Lemuel actually doesn't do anything involving legal actions, and has his staff do all the work. So now I'm rooting for Gary King to win this one...
So? He's good at delegating work. (shrugs) If the office of District Attorney has done a good job, he has done a good job.
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WMS
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« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2006, 01:37:24 PM »

Yup. And don't forget about Lemuel Martinez in the AG race. Wink
I like that name. I've always thought it sounds cool when Spaniards or Frenchmen have Old Testament names - don't know why actually.
Agreed Kiki and Lemuel has done a good job as District Attorney for the Thirteenth Judicial District. Pity he's almost certainly not going to win, but NM Dems have been consistently electing people I don't like in primaries for quite some time Tongue
Per information I received from a very reliable source...Lemuel actually doesn't do anything involving legal actions, and has his staff do all the work. So now I'm rooting for Gary King to win this one...
So? He's good at delegating work. (shrugs) If the office of District Attorney has done a good job, he has done a good job.
Trust me, this comes from a very good source - Lemuel is basically a do-nothing politician with no legal experience or knowledge. Tongue
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #18 on: June 05, 2006, 01:56:53 PM »

Yup. And don't forget about Lemuel Martinez in the AG race. Wink
I like that name. I've always thought it sounds cool when Spaniards or Frenchmen have Old Testament names - don't know why actually.
Agreed Kiki and Lemuel has done a good job as District Attorney for the Thirteenth Judicial District. Pity he's almost certainly not going to win, but NM Dems have been consistently electing people I don't like in primaries for quite some time Tongue
Per information I received from a very reliable source...Lemuel actually doesn't do anything involving legal actions, and has his staff do all the work. So now I'm rooting for Gary King to win this one...
So? He's good at delegating work. (shrugs) If the office of District Attorney has done a good job, he has done a good job.
Trust me, this comes from a very good source - Lemuel is basically a do-nothing politician with no legal experience or knowledge. Tongue
Okay... either the people working in that office are such a good team that it doesn't matter who their elected figurehead is, or your initial impression "that he has been doing a good job" was completely misguided - and I mean completely... or your normally very good source has a reason not to be honest with you on this one. Wink
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WMS
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« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2006, 12:12:46 PM »

Yup. And don't forget about Lemuel Martinez in the AG race. Wink
I like that name. I've always thought it sounds cool when Spaniards or Frenchmen have Old Testament names - don't know why actually.
Agreed Kiki and Lemuel has done a good job as District Attorney for the Thirteenth Judicial District. Pity he's almost certainly not going to win, but NM Dems have been consistently electing people I don't like in primaries for quite some time Tongue
Per information I received from a very reliable source...Lemuel actually doesn't do anything involving legal actions, and has his staff do all the work. So now I'm rooting for Gary King to win this one...
So? He's good at delegating work. (shrugs) If the office of District Attorney has done a good job, he has done a good job.
Trust me, this comes from a very good source - Lemuel is basically a do-nothing politician with no legal experience or knowledge. Tongue
Okay... either the people working in that office are such a good team that it doesn't matter who their elected figurehead is, or your initial impression "that he has been doing a good job" was completely misguided - and I mean completely... or your normally very good source has a reason not to be honest with you on this one. Wink
Both of the reasons in bold are accurate. Wink
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2006, 02:28:22 PM »

The NJ primary has me worried... Tom Kean could be in serious trouble.

I'm saying that he'll break 80% tonight in a close race.
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2006, 07:01:04 PM »

Does anyone have election result  links to AL, or NJ
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Flying Dog
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« Reply #22 on: June 06, 2006, 07:27:01 PM »

Governor   (0% Precincts Reporting)
     Bob Riley   GOP   66   66.67%
     Roy Moore   GOP   33   33.33%

 Governor   (0% Precincts Reporting)
     Lucy Baxley   Dem   277   60.22%
     Don Siegelman   Dem   142   30.87%
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jerusalemcar5
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« Reply #23 on: June 06, 2006, 07:27:44 PM »

Alabama:

http://www.nbc13.com/politics/9321779/detail.html

New Jersey:

http://www.state.nj.us/lps/elections/2006results/2006_primary_election.html

Neither have results yet, New Jersey hasn't set up its link.
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jerusalemcar5
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« Reply #24 on: June 06, 2006, 07:28:35 PM »

Governor   (0% Precincts Reporting)
     Bob Riley   GOP   66   66.67%
     Roy Moore   GOP   33   33.33%

 Governor   (0% Precincts Reporting)
     Lucy Baxley   Dem   277   60.22%
     Don Siegelman   Dem   142   30.87%

Where's that from?
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