June 6th Primaries: NM, MS, CA, IA, AL, NJ, MT, SD

[socaldem]

NM

The primary to watch here is the Dem primaries for statewide office.  The AG primary, in particular, should be interesting with Gubernatorial scion and '04 NM-02 Congressional nominee Gary King facing off against Geno Zamora an ex-aide to Gov. Richardson.  King had an early advantage because of name ID but I expect Zamora to win.

There are also contested Democratic primaries for secretary of state, auditor and land comissioner.  I expect Democrats are favored in all of these races in November.

MS

The race to watch here is the 2nd district congressional primary where state Rep. Chuck Espy, nephew to former Ag Sec. Mike Espy is challenging Rep. Benny Thompson in the primary.  Thompson is a rather divisive figure who gets support almost exclusively from African-American voters while the Espy family has shown greater cross-over appeal.  The Espy candidacy hasn't really caught on and I don't expect him to win, though it would have been nice to have an up and coming African-American who might have one day had statewide appeal...  At the same time, I think Thompson has done pretty well as ranking member on Homeland Security, so I don't think his constituents will see any reason to toss him out of office...

CA

Primary day will be huge in Cali!  But mostly on the state level, where there are a huge number of open assembly and senate districts (courtesy of term limits) in which Democrats and Republicans have fierce intra-party skirmishes. 

Of course, there are also congressional races with the most important being the CA-50 special election between Francine Busby and Brian Bilbray and the primary for the same race where Bilbray faces opposition from conservative businessman Bill Hauf (who doesn't seem to be getting much support).

The other race to watch is CA-11 where Richard Pombo faces a challenge from liberal Republican Pete McCloskey and the Democratic primary features a brawl between DCCC-backed airline piolt Steve Filson and wind turbine manufacturer Jerry McNerney.  Normally in a primary like this in a GOP-leaning district, I support the candidate with the best shot in the general, which would seem to be the more moderate-conservative Filson.  Filson, though, has been pathetic at fundraising and is a pretty lousy, uninspiring candidate who I don't think can win.  So, I suppose, McNerney might as well be the nominee because at least he has grassroots and labour enthusiasm on his side.  I expect the general here to be pretty competitive because there will be a ton of pro-environment third party expenditures.

The governors race is a tough call.  Phil Angelides is a smart policy wonk who I think would govern well but I'm not sure he'd be a popular governor because he's not particularly likeable or inspiring to the broad mass of people who are not Democratic activists/policy wonks.  Even if he were elected, would he be popular enough to push through his agenda?

Steve Westly, meanwhile, can be exactly the type of candidate that can win and be popular but I think he may lack something in substance...

I think the race is a toss-up and I'm leaning towards Westly, who I think is a better candidate and would be a decent and popular governor.  That said, I think Angelides may have a slight edge in the primary.

The LG primary is one of several musical chair races.  Insurance Comissioner Garamendi, who's a good public official but has, imo, been around the block one too many times faces the nails-smart Jackie Speier, whom I support.  Speier, however, will lose some female voters to Senator Liz Figueroa, so I expect Garamendi to win the primary.

The AG primary will go to Jerry Brown in a walk.  And he deserves to win over Rocky Delgadillo, L.A.'s all too developer-friendly city attorney.  Brown also has tons of experience, having been mayor of Oakland for two years, and, of course two-term governor of California from 1975-1983.

For SoS Debra Bowen and Deborah Ortiz are locked in a tight race.  Bowen is expected to win because she has the most establishment support.  This should be a tough race for the fall, though, because the Dem has to face incumbent Bruce McPherson who was appointed after disgraced Democrat Kevin Shelley resigned.

State Controller features tight primaries on both sides and will be competitive in the fall.  Orange Co.'s lone Dem State Sen. Joe Dunn faces John Chiang in the primary.  Dunn has tried to play up his role fighting for the state against Enron.  Chiang, meanwhile, is a super-smart up-and-comer, but has not run the most vigorous campaign.  Both are from the L.A. area, so it really depends on who can pick up the most support up North.  Polls show Dunn ahead, but I'm rooting for Chiang and think he has a chance.

On the GOP side, moderate Central coast state sen Abel Maldonado faces off against conservative ex-assemblyman Tony Strickland.  If Maldonado were to win the primary, he'd have a chance in the fall, but I expect Strickland to win and to lose to the Democrat.

AG Bill Lockyer is a lock for the Dem nod for treasurer and though the gop has a contested primary, it doesn't matter, because Lockyer will likely win the general, too.

Cruz Bustamonte will win the Dem nod for insurance comissioner, but I can't see him winning in the fall because of his baggage from the failed bid for governor during the recall.  Moreover, he faces a tough opponent in moderate GOPer Steve Poizner.

[socaldem]

So far I voted

Garamendi for Lt. Governor
Bowen for Secretary of State
Brown for Attorney General
Kraft for Insurance Commissioner

I'd prefer Angelides, but I might end up voting Westly if I think he has a better chance of winning. After all a flaming bag of dogsh**t would be far preferable to the One-Term-Inator.

What about Controller?

I highly, highly recommend Chiang;  I think he's a bit to the left of Dunn plus he's an absolutely brilliant guy perfect for the position whereas Dunn had hoped to run for AG but decided to run for controller because he was afraid of challenging Brown.

Plus, it'll be nice to have at least one non-white statewide officeholder.

Why, by the way, Garamendi over Speier?  I'm leaning Speier but am more-or-less on the fence on that one.

[socaldem]

Speier is the Democrats best candidate for Lt. Governor.  Westly is the better candidate for Governor.

Angelides and Garamendi will win the primaries.

CA-50 is a toss-up.  Bilbray is a ridiculously bad candidate.  He's been out of the game too long and mostly just runs attack ads.

Seeing the footage of Garamendi in the debate, he strikes me as not-ready-for-primetime, but that's pretty sad when he's been around the block so many times in the past twenty years.  Sure, I probably disagree with him on few issues, but he's way too inarculate and the Democrats need a healthy bench for the soon-to-be-open Feinstein seat.