June 6th Primaries: NM, MS, CA, IA, AL, NJ, MT, SD

[Citizen James]

Speier is the Democrats best candidate for Lt. Governor.  Westly is the better candidate for Governor.

Angelides and Garamendi will win the primaries.

CA-50 is a toss-up.  Bilbray is a ridiculously bad candidate.  He's been out of the game too long and mostly just runs attack ads.

Seeing the footage of Garamendi in the debate, he strikes me as not-ready-for-primetime, but that's pretty sad when he's been around the block so many times in the past twenty years.  Sure, I probably disagree with him on few issues, but he's way too inarculate and the Democrats need a healthy bench for the soon-to-be-open Feinstein seat.

Why is the Feinstein seat soon to be empty?  Is she planning retirement, or planning on seeking higher office?

And yes, I think Angeledes has the edge - though both candidates are well funded, and Westly polls slightly better against Arnold, Angeledes has the backing of much of the party machinery, including several prominent endorsements.

[Citizen James]

Meanwhile, here in my home district (CA-24), there is a slight chance of a congressional upset.  Naturally, I won't be voting in the GOP primary, though I wouldn't be suprised if some non-partisans chose to vote in the locally hotly debated congressional Republican primary insteand of the very ugly Democratic gubenatorial primary.

Tenenbaum seems to be running a fairly strong ground game, while Gallegly has made several stumbles - such as his last minute withdrawal for medical reasons, followed by his reentry into the race and disaperance of mystery ailment.

In the local editorial page battles, Gallegly's supporters bring up his usual 'tough on immigration' stance and his reputation for constituent service.  Tenenbaum's supporters run on his call for fiscal responsibility, point out that all representitives do constituent service, and not that for a senior member of congress, Gallegly is known for little more beyond towing the party line.

Still, incumbency and a huge war chest are signifigant advantages.  I would still consider Tenenbaum a long shot, but more of a 10-1 long shot; rather than the 100-1 or 1000-1 odds common for so many congressional longshots.