In case anyone is interested...

[Gustaf]

...the ruling Red-Green coalition in Sweden has retaken their lead in polls, after 15 months of trailing.

While the race is still very close, I'm getting pessimistic. To think that after all the scandals that have hit the SAP they could still get reelected is simply mind-boggling.

[© tweed]

Haven't they won 65 of the past 74 election or controlled the government 65 of the past 74 years (or something to that effect)?  You really shouldn't be surprised anymore, old buddy.

[Ben.]

Gustaf.

I had a lecture or two, a few weeks back, on "dominant party systems" Sweden and Japan where the case studies, it interesting, though i expect for you the novelty has worn off a little - hope to see them out of power, thankfully I dont think a dominant party system is ever going to develop in the UK, the US (in the long term) could be different.   

[Gustaf]

Haven't they won 65 of the past 74 election or controlled the government 65 of the past 74 years (or something to that effect)?  You really shouldn't be surprised anymore, old buddy.

Yeah, they've controlled government for 65 out of the last 74 years, or won all but three elections since 1932.

Ben, I wouldn't say it is AS bad as Japan, where there hasn't been any serious opposition in a long time. The Swedish opposition is, most of the time, credible, in the sense that they COULD win. They just never do. But considering all the scandals that have hit the SAP and their socialist partners, I am surpised they can still have this much support. It's time to throw the bums out!

[afleitch]

Now I can see why Labour used to say they wished to emulate the Swedish model...

[minionofmidas]

I am!

[Gustaf]

I am!

If you want more details, feel free to ask. I'm going to be horribly biased though.

[Jens]

I am!

If you want more details, feel free to ask. I'm going to be horribly biased though.

Please tell more and be biased - lets have a fun discussion.
On an completely different topic, have you given any thought on what university you are going to? I've been to Vårbal in Uppsala this weekend and it was great fun

[Gustaf]

I made an execercise last summer. If you use the numbers of last elections and divide Sweden to 350 constituencies, (even using gerrymandering) you get about 250 - 100 lead to the left. That is because the only area that is not socialdemocrat is Northern Stockholm and some subburbs. For example, all about 50 deputies north of Uppsala would be ALL social democrat. In big cities there is lot of strong leftist areas, but there are strong chunks of social democrat strength everywhere. Yuo can draw some non-socialist ghettos in most of the counties, but the districts look like those drawn for African-Americans in deep south. I'm sorry I have missed the maps and the statistics I used.

Wow, that's very ambitious of you, I'm impressed. You have to keep in mind though that the left won the last election by a margin of 9%. That would produce a blow-out in most systems using FPTP, so it doesn't come as a surprise to me. And yes, there are basically three areas in Sweden where the centre-right is strong: the Stockholm suburbs, the richer areas in Skåne in the southern parts and those Christian Democrat areas in Småland, where everyone owns their own company and goes to church on Sundays.

[Gustaf]

I am!

If you want more details, feel free to ask. I'm going to be horribly biased though.

Please tell more and be biased - lets have a fun discussion.
On an completely different topic, have you given any thought on what university you are going to? I've been to Vårbal in Uppsala this weekend and it was great fun

On the personal note, I'm quite undecided, so therefore I will start off by taking courses in Practical Philosophy and Physics at Stockholm University. Then I will decide on my next move. I'm basically torn between 3 options: Handelshögskolan (Business School) in Stockholm, which is very good for the career, but seems horribly boring, Political Masters in Uppsala, which seems interesting, but would force me to move there and doesn't seem to offer good career opportunities, or the Mathematical-economics program at Stockholm which seems interesting, but doesn't have very high application requirements.

Now, on the election.

The Swedish Cente-Right has never been as united as they are now. Just today, the Centre Party left the cross-aisles agreement on nuclear power, removing what has historically been the biggest obstacle to centre-right cooperation. The conservatives has also given up every conservative view on every issue, declaring themselves "fanaticially in favour" of trade unions and collective bargaining and promising to expand the public sector.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats have displayed their increasing corruption and incompetence through a long, long, long (did I say long?) series of scandals on all levels of government, including violence, drunkenness, ballot fraud, nepotism, corruption and fraud. The Swedish Left also got hurt by electing an out-spoken Communist as their new chairman and kicking out every reasonable person from the party.

More to come eventually.

[Gustaf]

It was possible to draw a very gerrymandered centre district in Hälsingland and in Dalarna. I have followed the Swedish elections for two decades now and I am impressed that there is no trend of change in Sweden (the result last time was even worse for social democrats). If you compare to Finland Centre would get about 66/200 of the seats with ease. The problem is propably that the social democrat seem to have all the votes they used to have thirties. In many other countries the places like Södermalm would not elect a socialist majority.

The few areas I could make a centrist distirict were (if you count first the blocks and then the majority party within a block (Australia style).

The outer Gotland
Öland
Some area in Östgötland
Some area in east coast (scarve out valdemarsvik and some other socialist areas).
One district in Dalsland, Bohuslän and West Gothonia.
At last one gerrymandered seat combining all rural areas of Hälsingland.

The map was actually very swiftly made (using excel) because the val.se has good files and maps.






 

I disagree on Södermalm, it consists only of latte liberals and immigrants. I don't know if you've ever been there, but it basically consists of coffee houses where John Lennon-look-a-likes sit around smoking Cuban cigars, discussing poverty in the third world and the independent art/music scene! (well, not EXACTLY, but pretty much)

I would very much like to see the map, if you still have it.

I haven't really looked into it, but there are a lot of rural areas in Sweden where the Centre Party is really strong, but I have no idea whether it is enough to make up a district.

[Gustaf]

In Gävleborg län, Ovanåker would be Centre party for instance.