William Jefferson (LA-2)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Does this guy have any credible Democratic challengers? Pelosi has already called for him to resign, so he probably wouldn't get establishment support. If the Republicans in this district are smart, they'll realize no Republican will ever win it, and support the Democrat with the best chance of making the run off. A Jefferson vs. non-scumbag Democrat runoff will probably result in a Jefferson loss (Republicans supporting the other Democrat), but even now Jefferson would beat a Republican.

Of course if reelected Jefferson will probably be forced to resign by the time his term is done and there'll be a special election, but I'd rather have him gone sooner than later.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Democrats should introduce impeachment on his ass, and then go back to pointing out how curropt all the Republicans are.

[Frodo]

Does this guy have any credible Democratic challengers?

Mitch Landrieu could be a strong possibility, although he's white... 

[Galactic Overlord]

One name that's been talked about is N.O. Council-at-large member Oliver Thomas (who is black).

[True Democrat]

There's no real primary though if I recall correctly. . .

[WalterMitty]

Does this guy have any credible Democratic challengers?

Mitch Landrieu could be a strong possibility, although he's white... 

lol. still riding that landrieu bandwagon.

he didnt lose because he is white.  he lost because he is dumber than an 8th grade p.e. teacher.

[Storebought]

The Democrats should introduce impeachment on his ass, and then go back to pointing out how curropt all the Republicans are.

Why go through all that trouble? The House could vote to simply expel Jefferson ... not that I would support the action, however.

I'd happily vote for old Dollar Bill if the open primary was contested between him and Mitch Landrieu.

[WalterMitty]

The Democrats should introduce impeachment on his ass, and then go back to pointing out how curropt all the Republicans are.

Why go through all that trouble? The House could vote to simply expel Jefferson ... not that I would support the action, however.

I'd happily vote for old Dollar Bill if the open primary was contested between him and Mitch Landrieu.

just curious, why do you dislike mitch so much?

[Storebought]

The Democrats should introduce impeachment on his ass, and then go back to pointing out how curropt all the Republicans are.

Why go through all that trouble? The House could vote to simply expel Jefferson ... not that I would support the action, however.

I'd happily vote for old Dollar Bill if the open primary was contested between him and Mitch Landrieu.

just curious, why do you dislike mitch so much?

That would be the question I should ask you.

You're not even from LA, so you've never had the satisfaction of

1. voting against him even if Landrieu's opponent in the LA Lt Gov race was a washed up Clyde Holloway
2. knowing that his father was the single most corrupt mayor New Orleans ever had -- and I'm including Sid Barthelemy, Marc Morial, and Wambly in that list
3. that his sister Mary just managed to scrape 80,000 votes out of Orleans Parish, the last to return ballots, for her 2002 reelection when she found out she lost to Suzie Terrell by 50,000 votes statewide.

The pas-de-deux he played with that 180 lb paperweight Blanco in the 2003 election was just too much.

[Nym90]

The Democrats should introduce impeachment on his ass, and then go back to pointing out how curropt all the Republicans are.

Why go through all that trouble? The House could vote to simply expel Jefferson ... not that I would support the action, however.

I'd happily vote for old Dollar Bill if the open primary was contested between him and Mitch Landrieu.

just curious, why do you dislike mitch so much?

That would be the question I should ask you.

You're not even from LA, so you've never had the satisfaction of

1. voting against him even if Landrieu's opponent in the LA Lt Gov race was a washed up Clyde Holloway
2. knowing that his father was the single most corrupt mayor New Orleans ever had -- and I'm including Sid Barthelemy, Marc Morial, and Wambly in that list
3. that his sister Mary just managed to scrape 80,000 votes out of Orleans Parish, the last to return ballots, for her 2002 reelection when she found out she lost to Suzie Terrell by 50,000 votes statewide.

The pas-de-deux he played with that 180 lb paperweight Blanco in the 2003 election was just too much.

If the 2002 Senate race was stolen, why not just only make up 50,001 or 55,000 or 60,000 votes instead of 80,000? The fewer ballots are doctored, the lower the chance of being caught.

Also, based on past turnout, would a Democratic margin of less than 50,000 in Orleans be something that happens, let's say, at least 95 percent of the time?

I realize you know Louisiana a lot better than I do, but it's just an honest question.

[Galactic Overlord]

I don't think 2002 was stolen.  1996 might have, but unfortunately I think 2002 we lost fair and square.  Landrieu got a huge margin out of N.O., but I think that was to be expected.  Landrieu actually improved her numbers across the board from the open primary to the runoff.  For example:

Jefferson Parish:
Primary: 41%
Runoff: 44%

Ouachita Parish:
Primary: 34%
Runoff: 41%

Bossier Parish:
Primary: 40%
Runoff: 41%

Lafayette Parish:
Primary: 36%
Runoff: 41%

Livingston Parish:
Primary: 32%
Runoff: 36%

St. Tammany Parish:
Primary: 30%
Runoff: 32%

And these are the most Republican parishes in the state, so you can well imagine the Democratic parishes did even better for her.  The trend showed Landrieu gaining votes after the primary, while Terrell failed to pick up all (or even nearly all) the Republican votes from the primary.  Terrell proved to be a weak candidate, and many LA Republican voters have said so.  If our ground game was good enough, New Orleans wouldn't be a problem no matter what the turnout.    For example, Terrell got 55% in suburban Jefferson Parish, while Vitter in 2004 got 62%.  So if we turn out more of our voters next time, we should win this senate seat.   

[Storebought]

I don't think 2002 was stolen.  1996 might have, but unfortunately I think 2002 we lost fair and square. 

I neglected 1996, but that may have been because the "GOP" candidate then was that has-been Woody Jenkins (at the time not nearly the same league as Holloway in 2003, though). That man has lost every major statewide election since Edwards's first term.

If I recall that election, the fraud charges weren't based so much on outright "vote manufacturing" as it was casino owners giving busloads of project inhabitants cash in exchange for votes. But the charges never really stuck because the Democrat usually receives 100,000+ vote pluralities during presidential elections in Orleans anyhow.

But 2002 was unusual in that it wasn't a presidential year, the Democrat usually doing only around 50000 votes or so better (going by Foster's two elections and previous off-year senate races). But that margin would not have been enough for Landrieu to have won reelection.

On the whole, you are right about 2002, though, so it was my mistake to include that particular election in my litany against that marshmonster.

[Galactic Overlord]

I don't know if Jenkins quite fell into the "has been" category.  Bob Dole was on the ballot at the same time, pulling only 40%, so Jenkins ran 10% of Dole right there.  He was more like "the best we had" at the time.   Peggy Wilson wasn't catching fire, and then there was David Duke, clearly not an option.  So the state GOP turned to Jenkins as their best hope.  Jenkins also held Senators Russell Long and J. Bennett Johnston to lower percentages when he ran against each in the 1980s, paving the way for more serious competition later on. 

[minionofmidas]

Does this guy have any credible Democratic challengers?

Mitch Landrieu could be a strong possibility, although he's white... 

lol. still riding that landrieu bandwagon.

he didnt lose because he is white.  he lost because he is dumber than an 8th grade p.e. teacher.

He came so close because he is white, and because of the (only very) partial success of the post-Katrina ethnical cleansing campaign by the city's White business community.