State of Fear is brilliant (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 03:25:02 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Debate
  Book Reviews and Discussion (Moderator: Torie)
  State of Fear is brilliant (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: State of Fear is brilliant  (Read 8849 times)
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,798


« on: June 03, 2006, 03:22:04 AM »

I had a lengthy post on this topic on another thread, so I won't copy it all here. What I will mention is that until about three years ago I was quite a skeptic of the causal relation between human effects and warming. The paper I cite in the above link I found to be an excellent study to answer exactly that question. The study found that both natural and human effects played a role, and I don't find their conclusions particularly extremist. However, many who read them cannot escape the evidence for human contribution to warming, and this leads to more dramatic statements in the media.
Logged
muon2
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,798


« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2006, 01:53:52 PM »

Here is an example of something that should be considered.  The first chart is the deperature and CO2 levels for the last about 18,000 years.



The second is sea level increases:
   

CO2 was increasing from 18,000 BP until about 13,500; then it stopped until 11,500.  What happened?  Both sea level and temperature began to rise prior to CO2 level rising (for about 1000 years).  Then all three jumped.

Then what happened?  Sea level rose, temperature fluctuated, but stayed in the same range, and CO2 decreased.  Then temperatures peaked, to 2 degrees C above the baseline, just before 8,000 BP.  CO2 levels dropped slightly, sea level continued to increase.

I'm sorry, but this isn't exactly a strong correlation.  There has to be some mechanism(s) that we don't understand.

The biggest problem is that typical observable effects like sea level rise and hurricane frequency have no demonstrated correlation to the CO2 rise. The strongest correlation is between human activity and the CO2 rise of the last century, a rise more rapid than any other in the last 20,000 years. A secondard correlation exists between CO2 rise and temperature increase, but that includes many factors. The paper I cited earlier troes to esblish the strength of that correlation and concludes that the human-induced CO2 increase does correlate with part of the global temperature rise.

Effects like sea-level rise could be expected to take many centuries to exhibit themselves after a temperature increase. Note that the sea-level increase from 11,000 to 8,000 years ago continued long after temperatures had more generally leveled off. Any future sea-level increase in response to a current temperature rise would also develop over a similar period of time.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 13 queries.