This analysis may actually understate Zogby's inaccuracy. For those who were following Zogby's polls on his website during the Democratic primaries, he was notorious for having "off-the-wall" results for a long period of time, and then suddenly having a massive shift of his results closer to the "consensus" of other polls the day before the election.
Thus, any results looking at his last-day tracking polls will often understate just how far out in left-field his polls really were.
TheOldLine
Zogby has always cut just a stunning array of corners on his polls. He breaks a very large numbers for faily fundemental rules, but has always, generally speaking, been able to compensate by adding a variety of weights and adjustments to his raw data.
In 2000 he did "ok" - not great but OK. His National poll was only 2% off, but about 40% of his state by state results were just totally screwed, (He had Gore and Bush TIED in California at the end)
I expect he had made some adjustments for 2004, or at least I hope he has. He is a businessman, and a smart one, at the end of the day his "product" (accurate results) have to be there or he will go under.
