Most Vulnerable Governorships

[nclib]

How would you rank the Gubernatorial races from most vulnerable to least vulnerable? Here is Chuck Todd's rankings (from National Journal):

1. NEW YORK (Open-R)
2. OHIO (Open-R)
3. IOWA (Open-D)
4. MASSACHUSETTS (Open-R)
5. ARKANSAS (Open-R)
6. COLORADO (Open-R)
7. MARYLAND (Ehrlich-R)
8. WISCONSIN (Doyle-D)
9. MICHIGAN (Granholm-D)
10. ILLINOIS (Blagojevich-D)
11. PENNSYLVANIA (Rendell-D)
12. FLORIDA (Open-R)
13. NEVADA (Open-R)
14. CALIFORNIA (Schwarzenegger-R)
15. ALASKA (Murkowski-R)
16. OREGON (Kulongoski-D)
17. MINNESOTA (Pawlenty-R)
18. ALABAMA (Riley-R)
19. RHODE ISLAND (Carcieri-R)
20. GEORGIA (Perdue-R)
21. MAINE (Baldacci-D)
22. TEXAS (Perry-R)
23. OKLAHOMA (Henry-D)
24. VERMONT (Douglas-R)
25. SOUTH CAROLINA (Sanford-R)
26. CONNECTICUT (Rell-R)
27. TENNESSEE (Bredesen-D)
28. KANSAS (Sebelius-D)
29. ARIZONA (Napolitano-D)
30. NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lynch-D)
31. SOUTH DAKOTA (Rounds-R)
32. IDAHO (Kempthorne-R)
33. HAWAII (Lingle-R)
34. WYOMING (Freudenthal-D)
35. NEW MEXICO (Richardson-D)
36. NEBRASKA (Heineman-R)

http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/governor/

Most of this seems reasonable, but I'd move Calif. up a bit.

[The Dowager Mod]

1-5 are so obvious.
If things get interesting in Texas watch out for an upset there.

[Alcon]

13. NEVADA (Open-R)
14. CALIFORNIA (Schwarzenegger-R)

Uh?

[nclib]

Those weren't my rankings (they were National Journal's). I would have put Calif. above Nevada.

[The Dowager Mod]

Didn't the Tennessee gov's running mate quit because the gov is so dirty?

[Nym90]

California, Minnesota, and Alaska should all be ahead of Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Oregon.

[7,052,770]

Didn't the Tennessee gov's running mate quit because the gov is so dirty?

that was in KY

[Gustaf]

My ranking:

1. NEW YORK (Open-R)
2. OHIO (Open-R)
3. ARKANSAS (Open-R)                                                           
4. MASSACHUSETTS (Open-R)
5. ALASKA (Murkowski-R)                                             

6. COLORADO (Open-R)
7. MARYLAND (Ehrlich-R)                                                   
8. MICHIGAN (Granholm-D)
9. ILLINOIS (Blagojevich-D)
10. IOWA (Open-D)
11. WISCONSIN (Doyle-D)                                   
12. OREGON (Kulongoski-D)
13. MINNESOTA (Pawlenty-R)
14. FLORIDA (Open-R)
15. CALIFORNIA (Schwarzenegger-R)
16. MAINE (Baldacci-D)
17. RHODE ISLAND (Carcieri-R)
18. PENNSYLVANIA (Rendell-D)

19. ALABAMA (Riley-R)
20. GEORGIA (Perdue-R)
21. SOUTH CAROLINA (Sanford-R)                                       
22. TEXAS (Perry-R)
23. TENNESSEE (Bredesen-D)

24. OKLAHOMA (Henry-D)
25. NEVADA (Open-R)
26. CONNECTICUT (Rell-R)
27. KANSAS (Sebelius-D)
28. HAWAII (Lingle-R)
29. VERMONT (Douglas-R)
30. ARIZONA (Napolitano-D)
31. SOUTH DAKOTA (Rounds-R)
32. WYOMING (Freudenthal-D)
33. NEW MEXICO (Richardson-D)
34. NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lynch-D)
35. IDAHO (Kempthorne-R)
36. NEBRASKA (Heineman-R)

[7,052,770]

Gustaf, you have Nevada way too low...Gibson and Gibbons are within 5% in the latest poll

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, you people seem to be under rating California. Arnold is ahead in the polls less than half of the time. Not good for an incumbent.

[TheresNoMoney]

California should certainly be among the top 6 or 7.

[ilikeverin]

Minnesota at 17?!?  No way.

[Gustaf]

Why should I rank Oregon higher than any of the other races? I definitely think Oregon is in play, but so are a lot of Governor's mansions.

California should not be in top 6 or 7. No way does it rank higher than NY, OH, AR, MA, AK, MD, etc.

[Alcon]

Why should I rank Oregon higher than any of the other races? I definitely think Oregon is in play, but so are a lot of Governor's mansions.

The latest poll shows Kulongoski up by only two points without Ben Westlund included.  Even if Westlund polls in at the very lowest range people are predicting (which is around 8 percent), that would probably be enough to give the GOP the advantage.

I would even wager that the GOP is probably ahead right now.

[Gustaf]

Why should I rank Oregon higher than any of the other races? I definitely think Oregon is in play, but so are a lot of Governor's mansions.

The latest poll shows Kulongoski up by only two points without Ben Westlund included.  Even if Westlund polls in at the very lowest range people are predicting (which is around 8 percent), that would probably be enough to give the GOP the advantage.

I would even wager that the GOP is probably ahead right now.

I don't take one single poll like that and read too much into it. And why would Westlund do that well? I have to say that I give a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic state in a Democratic year the edge, even if he is impopular. I do think it'll be close, but Wisconsin is right now looking closer to me.

[Alcon]

Why should I rank Oregon higher than any of the other races? I definitely think Oregon is in play, but so are a lot of Governor's mansions.

The latest poll shows Kulongoski up by only two points without Ben Westlund included.  Even if Westlund polls in at the very lowest range people are predicting (which is around 8 percent), that would probably be enough to give the GOP the advantage.

I would even wager that the GOP is probably ahead right now.

I don't take one single poll like that and read too much into it. And why would Westlund do that well? I have to say that I give a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic state in a Democratic year the edge, even if he is impopular. I do think it'll be close, but Wisconsin is right now looking closer to me.

I would not either.  However, Oregon is not an extremely Democratic state.  Kulongoski is dangerously unpopular.

The only reason Kerry won in 2004 was the independent vote, of course.  In places like Washington County, where Republicans still outnumber Democrats significantly, the self-identified independent vote is critical.  Every approval poll has shown Kulongoski's disapproval among independents over 60 percent.  Washington County and suburban independents will eat up a candidate like Ben Westlund - moderate libertarian with a liberal lean.  Every prediction I have seen says he should achieve between 8% and 25%.  I'm not sure what to think of that, but it sounds fairly reasonable.

Now, here's the big, big rub.  The Rasmussen poll showing Kulongoski up two had a 52-44 approval surplus.  Surplus!  This is the only poll to show a positive approval rating for Kulongoski.

Westlund not being included, and the ridiculously positive approval rating for Kulongoski, both make me think that the GOP probably has a pretty decent advantage working here.

[nclib]

I'm pleased to see South Dakota move up in the rankings after Rounds signed that ridiculous abortion bill.

Also, it is ironic that Dems in Kerry states are much more vulnerable than Dems in Bush states.

[Gabu]

Also, it is ironic that Dems in Kerry states are much more vulnerable than Dems in Bush states.

Ignoring the incorrect use of the word "ironic", that makes perfect sense to me, really.  Democrats who get elected in Republican states must be elected for a reason, whereas Democrats who get elected in Democratic states have a much higher chance of being elected just because they're the Democrat, and it could very well turn out that they aren't that competent.

[Gustaf]

Why should I rank Oregon higher than any of the other races? I definitely think Oregon is in play, but so are a lot of Governor's mansions.

The latest poll shows Kulongoski up by only two points without Ben Westlund included.  Even if Westlund polls in at the very lowest range people are predicting (which is around 8 percent), that would probably be enough to give the GOP the advantage.

I would even wager that the GOP is probably ahead right now.

I don't take one single poll like that and read too much into it. And why would Westlund do that well? I have to say that I give a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic state in a Democratic year the edge, even if he is impopular. I do think it'll be close, but Wisconsin is right now looking closer to me.

I would not either.  However, Oregon is not an extremely Democratic state.  Kulongoski is dangerously unpopular.

The only reason Kerry won in 2004 was the independent vote, of course.  In places like Washington County, where Republicans still outnumber Democrats significantly, the self-identified independent vote is critical.  Every approval poll has shown Kulongoski's disapproval among independents over 60 percent.  Washington County and suburban independents will eat up a candidate like Ben Westlund - moderate libertarian with a liberal lean.  Every prediction I have seen says he should achieve between 8% and 25%.  I'm not sure what to think of that, but it sounds fairly reasonable.

Now, here's the big, big rub.  The Rasmussen poll showing Kulongoski up two had a 52-44 approval surplus.  Surplus!  This is the only poll to show a positive approval rating for Kulongoski.

Westlund not being included, and the ridiculously positive approval rating for Kulongoski, both make me think that the GOP probably has a pretty decent advantage working here.

I hear you, and I admit to not knowing all these fact before. Still, I've learned over time onyl to trust "hard" facts and not speculation. If you're right on all these matters, it should show up in polls. Until that happens I'm gonna be conservative and keep Oregon lower than states where we know more on what's happening.

To give an example, I held Alaska way down the list, even though I thought the odds of KNowles getting in and kicking out Murkowski were pretty good. But I waited until Knowles actually announced before I moved it up.

[ian]

Likely Switch
1. OHIO (Open-R)
2. NEW YORK (Open-R)

Lean Switch
3. COLORADO (Open-R)
4. IOWA (Open-D)
5. WISCONSIN (Doyle-D)
6. ILLINOIS (Blagojevich-D)
7. MAINE (Baldacci-D)

Tossup
8. MASSACHUSETTS (Open-R) 
9. MARYLAND (Ehrlich-R)
10. ARKANSAS (Open-R)

Lean Incumbent Party
11. FLORIDA (Open-R)
12. CALIFORNIA (Schwarzenegger-R)
13. PENNSYLVANIA (Rendell-D)
14. MICHIGAN (Granholm-D)
15. ALASKA (Murkowski-R)
16. NEVADA (Open-R)

Likely Incumbent Party
17. RHODE ISLAND (Carcieri-R)
18. TEXAS (Perry-R)
19. OREGON (Kulongoski-D)
20. MINNESOTA (Pawlenty-R)
21. ALABAMA (Riley-R)
22. GEORGIA (Perdue-R)
23. TENNESSEE (Bredesen-D)
24. KANSAS (Sebelius-D)

Strong Incumbent Party
25. OKLAHOMA (Henry-D)
26. SOUTH CAROLINA (Sanford-R)
27. IDAHO (Isn’t this open now?-R)
28. VERMONT (Douglas-R)
29. SOUTH DAKOTA (Rounds-R)
30. HAWAII (Lingle-R)
31. ARIZONA (Napolitano-D)
32. NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lynch-D)
33. CONNECTICUT (Rell-R)
34. WYOMING (Freudenthal-D)
35. NEW MEXICO (Richardson-D)
36. NEBRASKA (Heineman-R)


I realize this list is a little kooky.  I didn't put too much time in it, but I really do think that Baldacci is that vulnerable; I'm surprised that it's not that much of a concensus.

[socaldem]

Definite Turnover
1. NEW YORK (Open-R)

Likely Turnover

2. OHIO (Open-R)

Lean Turnover
3. MASSACHUSETTS (Open-R)
4. ARKANSAS (Open-R)

Toss-ups
5. ALASKA (Murkowski-R)
6. MARYLAND (Ehrlich-R)
7. COLORADO (Open-R)
8. IOWA (Open-D)
9. CALIFORNIA (Schwarzenegger-R)
 ---------------------------------------
10. WISCONSIN (Doyle -D)
11. ILLINOIS (Blagojevich-D)
12. OREGON (Kulongoski-D)
13. MINNESOTA (Pawlenty-R)

Lean Retention
14. MICHIGAN (Granholm-D)
15. NEVADA (Open-R)
16. MAINE (Baldacci-D)
17. RHODE ISLAND (Carcieri-R)

Likely Retention
18. ALABAMA (Riley-R)
19. FLORIDA (Open-R)
20. GEORGIA (Perdue-R)
21. PENNSYLVANIA (Rendell-D)
22. TEXAS (Perry-R)
23. OKLAHOMA (Henry-D)

Definite Retention
24. IDAHO (Kempthorne-R)
25. VERMONT (Douglas-R)
26. TENNESSEE (Bredesen-D)
27. SOUTH CAROLINA (Sanford-R)
28. KANSAS (Sebelius-D)
29. ARIZONA (Napolitano-D)
30. CONNECTICUT (Rell-R)
31. NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lynch-D)
32. HAWAII (Lingle-R)
33. WYOMING (Freudenthal-D)
34. NEW MEXICO (Richardson-D)
35. SOUTH DAKOTA (Rounds-R)
36. NEBRASKA (Heineman-R)

[adam]

Incumbent  Screwed:

1. ALASKA (Murkowski-R)   
2. NEW YORK (Open-R)
3. OHIO (Open-R)

Incumbent Probably Screwed:

4. MASSACHUSETTS (Open-R)
5. ARKANSAS (Open-R)
6. CALIFORNIA (Schwarzenegger-R)

[nclib]

27. IDAHO (Isn’t this open now?-R)

Yes, Gov. Kempthorne was appointed to Secretary of the Interior, and the acting Governor is running for Lieutenant Governor.

[ilikeverin]

20. MINNESOTA (Pawlenty-R)

...?!?