Bromley & Chislehurst by-election
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  Bromley & Chislehurst by-election
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Author Topic: Bromley & Chislehurst by-election  (Read 9715 times)
Ben.
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« Reply #50 on: June 29, 2006, 07:53:40 PM »

Reports where that the local Tory party dictated much of their campaign, I cant help but think that if somone other than Neill (who seems a decent sort of chap) had been selected and the campaign tightly directed things would not be so dicey right now.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #51 on: June 29, 2006, 08:10:30 PM »

Reports that the gap has narrowed further and that the Tories may have lost.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #52 on: June 29, 2006, 08:14:49 PM »

Reports that the gap has narrowed further and that the Tories may have lost.

Now that would be an upset!

Dave
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #53 on: June 29, 2006, 08:16:32 PM »

Congrats to Pete:

I expect the seat to be much tighter than is generally expected.

He also got Solihull (quite similer to Bromley) right in the General Election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #54 on: June 29, 2006, 08:45:15 PM »

Tories have squeaked it.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #55 on: June 29, 2006, 08:47:18 PM »


Any idea by how many?

Dave
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #56 on: June 29, 2006, 08:51:28 PM »


About 600. The contrast between what Neill and Abbot have said in their speeches and what Davies and Smith said in there's is huge. I'm tired so I'll be blunt; the sort of stuff (and more to the point, the way they said it) said by the latter is the sort of stuff we need to get more people intopolitics. The violent nastyness spewed by both in Bromley is quite the reverse.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #57 on: June 29, 2006, 08:57:03 PM »


About 600. The contrast between what Neill and Abbot have said in their speeches and what Davies and Smith said in there's is huge. I'm tired so I'll be blunt; the sort of stuff (and more to the point, the way they said it) said by the latter is the sort of stuff we need to get more people intopolitics. The violent nastyness spewed by both in Bromley is quite the reverse.

I can imagine things at Bromley sounding rather nasty Sad

Dave
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #58 on: June 30, 2006, 01:10:31 AM »

Robert James MacGillivray Neill, Con    11629   40.01%
Benjamin Peter Abbots, LDm    10988   37.81%
Nigel Paul Farage, UKIP     2347    8.07%
Rachel Jane Reeves, Lab     1925    6.62%
Ann Christine Garrett, Grn      811    2.79%
Paul Winnett, NF      476    1.63%
John Stanley Charles David Hemming Clark, IndC      442    1.52%
Steven Uncles, EDP      212    0.72%
John Sydney Cartwright, Lny      132    0.45%
Nicholas Alexandros Hadziannis, Ind       65    0.22%
Anne Emily Jane Besley, MRP       33    0.11%
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #59 on: June 30, 2006, 04:23:43 AM »

Wow. That was awfully close, in a seat the Tories have absolutely no business losing.
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Voice from the South West
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« Reply #60 on: June 30, 2006, 05:10:00 AM »

Reports where that the local Tory party dictated much of their campaign, I cant help but think that if somone other than Neill (who seems a decent sort of chap) had been selected and the campaign tightly directed things would not be so dicey right now.

Well we shall never know, for all we know a parachuted A-Lister may have lost the seat completely!

Quite frankly though I am appalled by the result. It would seem yet again that inept by-election campaigning has been the hall-mark of this election. Cheadle, Moray, Bromley - the list could go on and on. CCHQ needs to get a grip and sort something out soon before Bromley Mk. II happens. As the Agent of my local association said to me this morning: "thank god for Ming Campbell." Any other leader of the Lib Dems - Nick Clegg, David Laws, maybe even Charlie Kennedy himself - and we probably would have lost.
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Peter
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« Reply #61 on: June 30, 2006, 05:31:01 AM »

With Farage as the UKIP candidate, I can see UKIP polling something substantial (maybe breaking 10%) - this would undoubtedly cause problems from the Tories and the LDs are likely to pick up Labour votes.

I expect the seat to be much tighter than is generally expected.

Vindicated.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #62 on: June 30, 2006, 05:32:23 AM »

Notice the gross vote figures:

Bob Neill, Conservative: 11,621
(- 11,962 from 2005)
Ben Abbotts, Liberal Democrat: 10,988
(+ 1,620)
Rachel Reeves, Labour: 1,925
(- 8,316)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #63 on: June 30, 2006, 05:43:43 AM »

Notice the gross vote figures:

Bob Neill, Conservative: 11,621
(- 11,962 from 2005)
Ben Abbotts, Liberal Democrat: 10,988
(+ 1,620)
Rachel Reeves, Labour: 1,925
(- 8,316)


Oooh... turnout was down a lot then. Looking over historical results, while turnout in by-elections does tend to drop, the raw vote of the main opposition party is usually fairly stable.

Did Reeves save her deposit after all?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #64 on: June 30, 2006, 06:04:30 AM »

With Farage as the UKIP candidate, I can see UKIP polling something substantial (maybe breaking 10%) - this would undoubtedly cause problems from the Tories and the LDs are likely to pick up Labour votes.

I expect the seat to be much tighter than is generally expected.

Vindicated.

Bromley is rather like Solihull isn't it?
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afleitch
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« Reply #65 on: June 30, 2006, 07:35:09 AM »

Poor showing from the Tories. Some comfort can be taken from the low turnout (possibly due to the belief it would be a shoe in) but lessons have to be learned.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #66 on: June 30, 2006, 09:02:54 AM »

Poor showing from the Tories. Some comfort can be taken from the low turnout (possibly due to the belief it would be a shoe in) but lessons have to be learned.

I think you guys holding Bromley & Chislehurst is marginally preferable to Labour failing to regain Blaenau Gwent

Of course what would happen come a general if the Labour vote collapsed in safe Tory seats and switched to the Lib Dems on a similar scale? I doubt it will happen though

It's certainly not good for Labour that, considering they were second  (albeit just) to the Conservatives in Bromley & Chislehurst in 2005, that the anti-Tory vote broke overwhelmingly for the Lib Dems. I think I'd have prefered Labour to have been a respectable second, or third even, in this by-election. Still such anti-Tory tactical voting could, arguably, offer some comfort to Labour

Still, given the slump in turnout, it is plausible that many Tories simply didn't bother voting assuming a Conservative hold was going to be a shoe-in

Dave
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #67 on: June 30, 2006, 09:41:27 AM »

I think you guys holding Bromley & Chislehurst is marginally preferable to Labour failing to regain Blaenau Gwent

Depends how you look at it; on the one hand the Tories have their seat, and Labour don't... but... Bromley sort-of came out of a clear sky (had the LibDems swung, what, about 300, voters their way this would have been the biggest by-election upset since Romsey; up until very late into the night the Tories were insisting that they had a good lead).

Ultimately neither is that important; Westminster by-elections have lately been a very bad way of measuring how different parties are doing, especially ones as obvious weird as these two. The Blaenau Gwent results basically keep the status quo (not that that is good news for the minority government in Cardiff Bay), and while the Bromley result might burst Cameron's bubble, I doubt it.
Just goes to show that you should never, ever take by-elections for granted.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #68 on: June 30, 2006, 10:44:32 AM »

I'm still a little puzzeled as to how the LibDems came so close here though; does anyone know why? I have to admit not following this by-election at all, until the last few days.
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« Reply #69 on: June 30, 2006, 10:55:15 AM »

I'm still a little puzzeled as to how the LibDems came so close here though; does anyone know why? I have to admit not following this by-election at all, until the last few days.

Maybe their drift to the economic right is helping them in places like outer london, which aren't all that socially conservative. They might be of a potential "orange" flavour, but the Lib Dems underperformed in the general election (failing to take places like Orpington and their vote falling in South-West London).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #70 on: June 30, 2006, 11:00:50 AM »

That would make sense actually; especially as the drift to the right has intensified post-local elections.

I found Ming's remark on this semi-interesting:

"It shows that there is no confidence in Cameron's Tories in the Conservative heartlands"

Although more for the reasons that he actually said it, rather than the words themselves.
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Peter
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« Reply #71 on: June 30, 2006, 11:34:53 AM »

I'm still a little puzzeled as to how the LibDems came so close here though; does anyone know why? I have to admit not following this by-election at all, until the last few days.

Thats because you don't know how to think like a Southerner.

Nigel Farage was certainly a brilliant help and my old friend at my college who is something in the LD association was practically squealing like a pig when he heard that he was running in B&C. He is quite charismatic and a good orator and has consistently been a thorn in the Tories' side (see Thanet South, for example).

The time of year was probably helpful - anybody who doesn't have kids, i.e. the elderly, will have gone on holiday before the school holidays start in a week or two. It only gives a small reduction, but it undoubtedly helped.

As ever, the Lib dem machine did bombard the seat with activists and I get the feeling from what a couple of them have said to me that the Tories were quite complacent. The LD machine operated in such a way that I think they were trying to come in under the radar as they did in Dunfermline.

The seat has a number of similarities with Solihull - high prof/managerial/technical, with very low unskilled workers (who in somewhere like Bromley would have been a useful base for the Tories).

The campaign was overwhlemlingly local for the LDs - I don't think Minging Campbell had much to do with their near miss, whilst Cameron might just have helped the tories to hold onto it.

The general area is not unaccustomed to LD MPs given that Orpington had one up until 1970, and more recently Greenwich (only down the road really) had Saint Rosie and Saint John as MPs, and Erith which had that most Wellbeloved MP, Saint James.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #72 on: June 30, 2006, 05:34:37 PM »

Thats because you don't know how to think like a Southerner.

Heh; true Grin

Some interesting points actually; thanks. True about Lib/SDP/LibDem M.P's in Kentish London (this old term should be used more often), although judging by election results Wellbeloved wasn't especially well beloved by people in Erith Wink
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #73 on: July 01, 2006, 05:30:50 AM »

Bromley vs Solihull

Bromley by-election 2006

Robert James MacGillivray Neill, Con    11629   40.01% (-11%)
Benjamin Peter Abbots, LDm    10988   37.81% (+18%)
Nigel Paul Farage, UKIP     2347    8.07% (+5%)
Rachel Jane Reeves, Lab     1925    6.62% (-15%)
Ann Christine Garrett, Grn      811    2.79% (Unchanged)
Paul Winnett, NF      476    1.63%
John Stanley Charles David Hemming Clark, IndC      442    1.52%
Steven Uncles, EDP      212    0.72%
John Sydney Cartwright, Lny      132    0.45%
Nicholas Alexandros Hadziannis, Ind       65    0.22%
Anne Emily Jane Besley, MRP       33    0.11%

Solihull General Election 2005

Lorely Burt, LDm    20896   39.94% (+13%)
John Taylor, Con    20617   39.41% (-6%)
Rory Vaughan, Lab     8058   15.40% (-10%)
Diane Carr, BNP     1752    3.34% (+3%)
Andy Moore, UKIP      990    1.89% (Unchanged)

Mmm, there could be something said about that, yes. But I'm more intrigued by this idea of gains due to a swing to UKIP (as raised by Mr. Farage MEP)

1% Con / UKIP swing: Lab gain 3, Lib Dems gain 1
2% Con / UKIP swing: Lab gain 10, Lib Dems gain 1
3% Con / UKIP swing: Lab gain 14, Lib Dem gain 2
4% Con / UKIP swing: Lab gain 18, Lib Dem gain 3
5% Con / UKIP swing: Lab gain 21, Lib Dem gain 7

1% Lab / UKIP swing: Con gain 11, Lib Dem gain 1
2% Lab / UKIP swing: Con gain 15, Lib Dem gain 2, SNP gain 1
3% Lab / UKIP swing: Con gain 20, Lib Dem gain 4, SNP gain 1
4% Lab / UKIP swing: Con gain 27, Lib Dem gain 5, PC gain 1, SNP gain 1
5% Lab / UKIP swing: Con gain 34, Lib Dem gain 5, PC gain 1, SNP gain 1
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« Reply #74 on: July 01, 2006, 04:41:40 PM »

With Farage as the UKIP candidate, I can see UKIP polling something substantial (maybe breaking 10%) - this would undoubtedly cause problems from the Tories and the LDs are likely to pick up Labour votes.

I expect the seat to be much tighter than is generally expected.

Vindicated.

Bromley is rather like Solihull isn't it?

Yes. But Posher.
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