Bromley & Chislehurst by-election

[Peter]

If the Tories lose this then the answer Michael Portillo should have given in 1997 when asked "Are we seeing the death of the Conservative Party as a viable force in British politics?", was "Yes!"

I don't see how they can do any better than Cameron: Anybody else, whilst probably attractive to the likes of Bono, simply won't sit as well with the electorate (unless Ken Clarke proves that 4th time is indeed a charm).

[Peter]

With Farage as the UKIP candidate, I can see UKIP polling something substantial (maybe breaking 10%) - this would undoubtedly cause problems from the Tories and the LDs are likely to pick up Labour votes.

I expect the seat to be much tighter than is generally expected.

[Peter]

With Farage as the UKIP candidate, I can see UKIP polling something substantial (maybe breaking 10%) - this would undoubtedly cause problems from the Tories and the LDs are likely to pick up Labour votes.

I expect the seat to be much tighter than is generally expected.

Vindicated.

[Peter]

I'm still a little puzzeled as to how the LibDems came so close here though; does anyone know why? I have to admit not following this by-election at all, until the last few days.

Thats because you don't know how to think like a Southerner.

Nigel Farage was certainly a brilliant help and my old friend at my college who is something in the LD association was practically squealing like a pig when he heard that he was running in B&C. He is quite charismatic and a good orator and has consistently been a thorn in the Tories' side (see Thanet South, for example).

The time of year was probably helpful - anybody who doesn't have kids, i.e. the elderly, will have gone on holiday before the school holidays start in a week or two. It only gives a small reduction, but it undoubtedly helped.

As ever, the Lib dem machine did bombard the seat with activists and I get the feeling from what a couple of them have said to me that the Tories were quite complacent. The LD machine operated in such a way that I think they were trying to come in under the radar as they did in Dunfermline.

The seat has a number of similarities with Solihull - high prof/managerial/technical, with very low unskilled workers (who in somewhere like Bromley would have been a useful base for the Tories).

The campaign was overwhlemlingly local for the LDs - I don't think Minging Campbell had much to do with their near miss, whilst Cameron might just have helped the tories to hold onto it.

The general area is not unaccustomed to LD MPs given that Orpington had one up until 1970, and more recently Greenwich (only down the road really) had Saint Rosie and Saint John as MPs, and Erith which had that most Wellbeloved MP, Saint James.