Bromley & Chislehurst by-election

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Candidates:

Tories have narrowed down to Bob Neill (leader of the Tories on the GLA) and two "A" list candidates*. Final choice will be announced fairly soon.
No idea for the other parties.

*I should perhaps point out that while accusations of the various "A" list candidates being carpet-baggers etc. are largely valid, Eric Forth himself was a carpet-bagger; he used to be the M.P for the old Mid Worcestershire seat (which sort-of turned into the current Redditch seat) and did the chicken-run down to Bromley in 1997. Interestingly Bromley's most famous M.P (a certain '50's/'60's P.M) was also a carpet-bagger, heading off to Bromley after being heavily beaten in Stockton in '45.

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I think other candidates will be picked soon as well... but while both the LibDems and Labour have decent minority votes in part of the constituency (there are a few old estates here and there (Cray West ward, which (just) voted Labour earlier this year is in the seat I think and we didn't do all that badly in Mottingham) while there's a minority LibDem vote in almost all white-collar suburbia... I think they had some councillers here in 1998...) that both votes come from very different people and the fact that the seat has a natural Tory majority, makes an upset about as likely as the Tories winning Blaenau Gwent later this month. Unless a strong Indie-Tory runs.

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What's a "secular Muslim"?

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I assume the none "scary" kind In reality i think its short-hand for no beard or prayer robes... not my words i should add.

Most Muslims that don't have a big beard and wear robes (and that's most of them) certainly wouldn't describe themselves as "secular Muslims" and it would be wrong to describe them as such.

Thinking about this for a minute, "Secular Muslim" actually sounds quite like "Lapsed Catholic", although he might mean something else.

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Not especially; demographic changes aren't exactly helpful to Labour in the area (and neither are the slight boundary changes) but they aren't really devastating. It'll certainly be treated as a marginal by both sides (even if it isn't really one on paper) but it would certainly be a suprise if it fell (rather like Bradford West last year).
The local election results in Tooting were slightly better than expected actually; although quite suprising at the same time. Local elections in Wandsworth are strange things o/c.

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As for Tooting, gentrification is spreading into the seat,

True; not as rapidly as happend in Battersea in the '80's though.

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The Tories will do better than average in most of Outer London and also in the Inner West. Tooting more-or-less has elements of both, although things are confused further by the continued good Labour results in that inner-suburban belt south of Wandsworth and Lambeth (it's where a lot of people moved out from Battersea ended up IIRC. Actually it isn't quite true to say south of Lambeth; Streatham South ward is in it) which Tooting *also* has certain elements of (Furzedown ward especially I think).

Oh yes; Manning was the Tory candidate in Bristol East last election. She polled 21% and came third. Bristol East was Tory from it's creation in 1983 until 1992. The two old seats that made up most of it were traditionally Labour (one of which was first Stafford Cripps's and then Tony Benn's seat) although not by as much as Bristol South.

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I think its fair to say lots of seats that where Tory from 1983-92 stayed Labour last time around, its hardly a reflection on the local candidate. A seat being competative thirteen years ago doesnt really mean all that much for a contest like 2005 to be honest... indeed plenty of good candidates from all parties lost in 2005.

That's true and I wasn't really making any judgements on how good a candidate she was or not (I have no idea). But while Bristol East was Tory in the '80's, it wouldn't have been in any Post War decade before then.
Also worth noting that the Tory machine in Bristol has almost totally collapsed (most of the remaining Tory councillers have there own personal machines o/c) in recent years. The old Bristol West was Tory from the 1870's onwards IIRC (it's Tory-ness was weakend, quite a lot actually, by the expansion of the seat, but they'd have still lost the old seat in 1997. But to the LibDems) and in 1987 they came very close to gaining Bristol *South* (although if Cocks hadn't been deselected this wouldn't have happend, but that's by-the-by...)

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Bumps for the purposes of the usual dodgy postal vote rumours:

Apparently the samples here have been suprising.

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Oh and there's been some silly row about whether the Tory candidate is legal or not.

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There are rumours that the LibDems have called in extra troops (so to speak) here... anyone know whether that be true or not?

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No, the result will be declared early on friday. Voting is today.

LibDems are talking of "another Romsey". Don't really believe them, but they have spent a lot of money in Bromley (sad how Dunfermline changed the political culture in that way; all parties now shell out huge sums on by-elections that they think they can win or might get a good result from. UKIP has even gone so far as to *brag* about spending £75,000 in Bromley...)

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Rennard is reported to have said that the LibDems have a real chance of winning...

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Rennard is reported to have said that the LibDems have a real chance of winning...

Sounds like yellow noise time again.

Ala Newcastle Central?

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There are rumours that a recount may happen

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We might have lost our deposit...
...all non-Socialist candidates might have done in Blaenau Gwent as well...

Strange.

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EDIT- I kinda hate this constant yo-yo of whats happening you get thanks to the net

pb.com is an emotional rollercoster

And full of bloody Lib Dems!

Is it always like this? Only ever check it at by-election time (for every single bloody media source is so ing slow...) so I wouldn't know (the discussion is always pretty bad and there are better places for poll results). I find it very hard to believe almost anything on it...

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Lib Dems seem to mass on PB when election results are due- going on about their 'sources' and watching the betting markets.

The betting markets are almost totally influenced by that site... how stupid could...

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Lol!

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BBC are reporting that the gap between the Tories and LibDems is about 600 votes. A recount is underway...

===
Bad night for both Tony and Dave then. Can't help but think that that be good...

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Still what impact did Dumferline have?

A huge (and highly negative) one on political culture (as far as by-elections go). Politically it may have helped Ming and stopped the (probably artificial anyway) collapse in the polls. But other than that, not much. Weren't no Orpington or Eastbourne.

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Reports that the gap has narrowed further and that the Tories may have lost.

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Congrats to Pete:

I expect the seat to be much tighter than is generally expected.

He also got Solihull (quite similer to Bromley) right in the General Election.

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Tories have squeaked it.

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Tories have squeaked it.

Any idea by how many?

Dave

About 600. The contrast between what Neill and Abbot have said in their speeches and what Davies and Smith said in there's is huge. I'm tired so I'll be blunt; the sort of stuff (and more to the point, the way they said it) said by the latter is the sort of stuff we need to get more people intopolitics. The violent nastyness spewed by both in Bromley is quite the reverse.

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Notice the gross vote figures:

Bob Neill, Conservative: 11,621
(- 11,962 from 2005)
Ben Abbotts, Liberal Democrat: 10,988
(+ 1,620)
Rachel Reeves, Labour: 1,925
(- 8,316)

Oooh... turnout was down a lot then. Looking over historical results, while turnout in by-elections does tend to drop, the raw vote of the main opposition party is usually fairly stable.

Did Reeves save her deposit after all?

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With Farage as the UKIP candidate, I can see UKIP polling something substantial (maybe breaking 10%) - this would undoubtedly cause problems from the Tories and the LDs are likely to pick up Labour votes.

I expect the seat to be much tighter than is generally expected.

Vindicated.

Bromley is rather like Solihull isn't it?

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I think you guys holding Bromley & Chislehurst is marginally preferable to Labour failing to regain Blaenau Gwent

Depends how you look at it; on the one hand the Tories have their seat, and Labour don't... but... Bromley sort-of came out of a clear sky (had the LibDems swung, what, about 300, voters their way this would have been the biggest by-election upset since Romsey; up until very late into the night the Tories were insisting that they had a good lead).

Ultimately neither is that important; Westminster by-elections have lately been a very bad way of measuring how different parties are doing, especially ones as obvious weird as these two. The Blaenau Gwent results basically keep the status quo (not that that is good news for the minority government in Cardiff Bay), and while the Bromley result might burst Cameron's bubble, I doubt it.
Just goes to show that you should never, ever take by-elections for granted.