Bromley & Chislehurst by-election

[Ben.]

 Unless a strong Indie-Tory runs.

Farge is running for UKIP... then again UKIP seem to be a bit of a "busted flush"... I dont know how this seat falls to the LibDems (and their the only party that might take it) but Cameron will be looking for a candidate who fits his image for the Tory party (interestingly he was disaptioned with the the A-list, thinking some candidates to "southern" and lightweight) and at the same time pulls off a hefty win for the party in a strong area he probably hopes for 55%+ (in a by-election that would be very good).

[Ben.]

I would have expected an embarassing campaign had an A-lister ran.

Indeed... thing is 2/3rds of the A-list a pretty solid the rest are a bit iffy, Iain Dale not being on is understandable, after N.Norfolk in '05 (even though I think he'd be a good parlimentarian) but there are plenty good very hard working candidates who performed well who've been "passed over" for folks who seem frankly lightweight and havent put in much practical effort for the Tories in the past.

But as you say Neill has a solid record and should pull off an equally solid win.     

[Ben.]

The other two candidates where Syed Kamall MEP and Julia Manning (Chair of the Conservative Christian Fellowship) both are actually rather good and do very well on TV and in the media, personally I would have favoured Manning though i think Kamall would have been a better "by-election candidate" and a better campaigner (though i'm basing that on gut feeling more than anything), it's not that Neill isnt a credible and competant candidate rather that he simply isnt very exception though he's by all acounts been a good member of the GLA so he should do well. 

[Ben.]

Who was in the A list?

Syed Kamall, London MEP, secular muslim and by all acounts a pretty robust and effective pol, also very eurosceptic.




Julia Manning, chair of the Conservative Christian Fellowship i think she ran for a "unwinable" seat last time around and is well regarded, less tested than Kamall but probably my prefered candidate.


Interestingly, despite the hype, Neill was a big supporter of Cameron's during the leadership election, from pretty early on, and is fairly pro-european... he's also a good "fit" for Bromley. Whats more its interesting to note, again despite the hype, that the local association picked two of the three candidates for the final hustings from the A-list, this when lots of local "worthies" (such as Mrs Forth) where seeking the nomination.       

[Ben.]

What's a "secular Muslim"?

I assume the none "scary" kind In reality i think its short-hand for no beard or prayer robes... not my words i should add.

Indeed Kamal would be my pick to contest Tooting that looks like being very shaky for Labour next time around.

[Ben.]

I assume the none "scary" kind In reality i think its short-hand for no beard or prayer robes... not my words i should add.

Most Muslims that don't have a big beard and wear robes (and that's most of them) certainly wouldn't describe themselves as "secular Muslims" and it would be wrong to describe them as such.

Thinking about this for a minute, "Secular Muslim" actually sounds quite like "Lapsed Catholic", although he might mean something else.

As i said Al "not my words" and the "scary" tag was used somewhat "tong-in-cheek"

As for Tooting, gentrification is spreading into the seat, on top of that I'd expect the Tories to again do better in London than the rest of the country making Tooting look very marginal indeed, though at the same time I'd expect the LibDem vote to go down a little (though last time around there was a swing to the Tories of 4% IIRC).   

[Ben.]

Oh yes; Manning was the Tory candidate in Bristol East last election. She polled 21% and came third. Bristol East was Tory from it's creation in 1983 until 1992. The two old seats that made up most of it were traditionally Labour (one of which was first Stafford Cripps's and then Tony Benn's seat) although not by as much as Bristol South.

I think its fair to say lots of seats that where Tory from 1983-92 stayed Labour last time around, its hardly a reflection on the local candidate. A seat being competative thirteen years ago doesnt really mean all that much for a contest like 2005 to be honest... indeed plenty of good candidates from all parties lost in 2005.

[Ben.]

Also worth noting that the Tory machine in Bristol has almost totally collapsed (most of the remaining Tory councillers have there own personal machines o/c) in recent years. The old Bristol West was Tory from the 1870's onwards IIRC (it's Tory-ness was weakend, quite a lot actually, by the expansion of the seat, but they'd have still lost the old seat in 1997. But to the LibDems) and in 1987 they came very close to gaining Bristol *South* (although if Cocks hadn't been deselected this wouldn't have happend, but that's by-the-by...)

Very True... and of course the case in many cities, the LibDem (in Bristol West for example) can now hoover up sufficent right of centre voters and win enougth liberal, white collar workers to win in places like Bristol West... If things continue as they are though there might be a few places where a DC led Tory revival (on any scale) could undermine the LibDems and potentially help Labour (Bristol?, Chesterfeild?). 

[Ben.]

For what it's worth, betting odds have apparently moved strongly in the Tories favour.

[Ben.]

EDIT- I kinda hate this constant yo-yo of whats happening you get thanks to the net

pb.com is an emotional rollercoster

[Ben.]

EDIT- I kinda hate this constant yo-yo of whats happening you get thanks to the net

pb.com is an emotional rollercoster

And full of bloody Lib Dems!

And their "sources"

[Ben.]

Tories telling Sky it's 48/38 Tory/LibDem split.

[Ben.]

Radio 5 saying a recount, but that doesnt seem to square with nearly everything else coming out... hmmm...

[Ben.]

LibDems fought a brutally, agressive campaign... you might not like it's tone but such campaigns are effective, somthing which the Conservatives must now learn.

Still what impact did Dumferline have?

[Ben.]

Reports where that the local Tory party dictated much of their campaign, I cant help but think that if somone other than Neill (who seems a decent sort of chap) had been selected and the campaign tightly directed things would not be so dicey right now.