My 2008 prediction
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Author Topic: My 2008 prediction  (Read 1775 times)
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Harry
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« on: June 04, 2006, 12:15:35 PM »

it's basically a gut feeling, but I'm sticking to this:



Mark Warner--377
Condoleeza Rice--161

Rice can't ever get it together because she's too closely associated with the Bush administration.  Being black, female, and moderate doesn't play too well to her base either, many of whom stay home.
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awfernan2002
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« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2006, 12:29:06 PM »

This is a joke, right?

Condolezza Rice as GOP nominee = laughable.
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adam
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« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2006, 01:08:07 PM »

Haha.

If Christ himself ran as a Democrat, he would still lose Mississippi. Also, West Virginia - it's a lost cause for Democrats.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #3 on: June 04, 2006, 01:14:13 PM »

Haha.

If Christ himself ran as a Democrat, he would still lose Mississippi.
No.
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adam
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« Reply #4 on: June 04, 2006, 01:23:45 PM »

Haha.

If Christ himself ran as a Democrat, he would still lose Mississippi.
No.
Yes.
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Nym90
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« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2006, 01:28:45 PM »

Warner would have an excellent chance of winning West Virginia, but you are being pretty unrealistic in thinking he could win Mississippi, unless he won a landslide victory nationally. He would have a much better chance of winning North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, or Louisiana than Mississippi.

Also, I agree that Rice as the GOP nominee is unrealistic.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2006, 01:31:22 PM »

Warner would have an excellent chance of winning West Virginia, but you are being pretty unrealistic in thinking he could win Mississippi, unless he won a landslide victory nationally. He would have a much better chance of winning North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, or Louisiana than Mississippi.
Not entirely sure about Georgia actually ... sure got more outer suburban uberpartisans than Mississippi. (And yes I know Clinton won it in 92 - it#s changed a lot since then though.)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #7 on: June 04, 2006, 01:45:04 PM »

Not to appear misleading: I do view either discussion as entirely academic. I do not believe the Democrats have a chance at winning Mississippi in 2008.
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Harry
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« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2006, 02:24:33 PM »

Mississippi is more of a Democratic state than several nearby it, thanks to the high black population.

Mississippi is also much less progressive, and won't pick a black woman over a respectable Southern white man.

If it's Warner vs. Rice, Warner wins MS.
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adam
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« Reply #9 on: June 04, 2006, 02:38:26 PM »

Warner would have an excellent chance of winning West Virginia, but you are being pretty unrealistic in thinking he could win Mississippi, unless he won a landslide victory nationally. He would have a much better chance of winning North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, or Louisiana than Mississippi.

Also, I agree that Rice as the GOP nominee is unrealistic.

I agree with you on most counts, but I have to say the situation is looking pretty grim for you guys in WV. It was supposed to be a 4-5 point victory for Bush in the state and it ended up a 13 point landslide. The shows that the average Democrat (which I'm not entirely convinced that Warner isn't) has trouble keeping the ground it gains until the end of the election in that particular state. I think a lot of it can be attributed to social conservative movement that is growing like wildfire in states large blue collar work forces. WV is one of those states that has been fooled into thinking that preserving the "tradition" of marriage is more important than creating jobs, improving working conditions, tax reform, etc etc...

For that reason, I think West Virginia will sink for the Dems before it will begin floating again.
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Nym90
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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2006, 06:06:08 PM »

Warner would have an excellent chance of winning West Virginia, but you are being pretty unrealistic in thinking he could win Mississippi, unless he won a landslide victory nationally. He would have a much better chance of winning North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, or Louisiana than Mississippi.

Also, I agree that Rice as the GOP nominee is unrealistic.

I agree with you on most counts, but I have to say the situation is looking pretty grim for you guys in WV. It was supposed to be a 4-5 point victory for Bush in the state and it ended up a 13 point landslide. The shows that the average Democrat (which I'm not entirely convinced that Warner isn't) has trouble keeping the ground it gains until the end of the election in that particular state. I think a lot of it can be attributed to social conservative movement that is growing like wildfire in states large blue collar work forces. WV is one of those states that has been fooled into thinking that preserving the "tradition" of marriage is more important than creating jobs, improving working conditions, tax reform, etc etc...

For that reason, I think West Virginia will sink for the Dems before it will begin floating again.

You may be right; it will be interesting to see if it comes back to the Democrats in 2008. If any Democrat can win it, it would be Warner, considering that he's moderate and from Virginia. If he is nominated and loses West Virginia I would definitely agree with you that it should be considered part of the GOP base.
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adam
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« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2006, 06:28:33 PM »

Warner would have an excellent chance of winning West Virginia, but you are being pretty unrealistic in thinking he could win Mississippi, unless he won a landslide victory nationally. He would have a much better chance of winning North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, or Louisiana than Mississippi.

Also, I agree that Rice as the GOP nominee is unrealistic.

I agree with you on most counts, but I have to say the situation is looking pretty grim for you guys in WV. It was supposed to be a 4-5 point victory for Bush in the state and it ended up a 13 point landslide. The shows that the average Democrat (which I'm not entirely convinced that Warner isn't) has trouble keeping the ground it gains until the end of the election in that particular state. I think a lot of it can be attributed to social conservative movement that is growing like wildfire in states large blue collar work forces. WV is one of those states that has been fooled into thinking that preserving the "tradition" of marriage is more important than creating jobs, improving working conditions, tax reform, etc etc...

For that reason, I think West Virginia will sink for the Dems before it will begin floating again.

You may be right; it will be interesting to see if it comes back to the Democrats in 2008. If any Democrat can win it, it would be Warner, considering that he's moderate and from Virginia. If he is nominated and loses West Virginia I would definitely agree with you that it should be considered part of the GOP base.

Warner's regionalism and moderate platform could help, despite historical bad blood between Virginia and West Virginia. It will be intresting though, I guess only time will tell.
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2006, 08:16:01 PM »

Which states would rice win in Primaries? She'd probably end up like Sharpton in '04 and just pull second in DC.
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Harry
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« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2006, 08:49:24 PM »

Which states would rice win in Primaries? She'd probably end up like Sharpton in '04 and just pull second in DC.
I'm thinking she'll be the Bush-backed candidate.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2006, 02:41:07 PM »

Which states would rice win in Primaries? She'd probably end up like Sharpton in '04 and just pull second in DC.
I'm thinking she'll be the Bush-backed candidate.

See, I think you're wrong there, Harry. The Bush-backed candidate would probably be Allen or Frist.
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adam
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2006, 02:55:58 PM »

Which states would rice win in Primaries? She'd probably end up like Sharpton in '04 and just pull second in DC.
I'm thinking she'll be the Bush-backed candidate.

For starters, she has decided against running in 2008 from what I've heard. Who can blame her really? If I was a cog in this administration, I wouldn't jump right into any kind of politics.

Secondly, I highly doubt that Bush would back an openly pro-choice candidate for President.
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Nym90
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2006, 08:32:52 PM »

Which states would rice win in Primaries? She'd probably end up like Sharpton in '04 and just pull second in DC.
I'm thinking she'll be the Bush-backed candidate.

See, I think you're wrong there, Harry. The Bush-backed candidate would probably be Allen or Frist.

I agree, which is why neither has much chance of winning the election unless Bush's approval ratings rebound.
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