My 2008 prediction

[Nym90]

Warner would have an excellent chance of winning West Virginia, but you are being pretty unrealistic in thinking he could win Mississippi, unless he won a landslide victory nationally. He would have a much better chance of winning North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, or Louisiana than Mississippi.

Also, I agree that Rice as the GOP nominee is unrealistic.

[Nym90]

Warner would have an excellent chance of winning West Virginia, but you are being pretty unrealistic in thinking he could win Mississippi, unless he won a landslide victory nationally. He would have a much better chance of winning North Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia, or Louisiana than Mississippi.

Also, I agree that Rice as the GOP nominee is unrealistic.

I agree with you on most counts, but I have to say the situation is looking pretty grim for you guys in WV. It was supposed to be a 4-5 point victory for Bush in the state and it ended up a 13 point landslide. The shows that the average Democrat (which I'm not entirely convinced that Warner isn't) has trouble keeping the ground it gains until the end of the election in that particular state. I think a lot of it can be attributed to social conservative movement that is growing like wildfire in states large blue collar work forces. WV is one of those states that has been fooled into thinking that preserving the "tradition" of marriage is more important than creating jobs, improving working conditions, tax reform, etc etc...

For that reason, I think West Virginia will sink for the Dems before it will begin floating again.

You may be right; it will be interesting to see if it comes back to the Democrats in 2008. If any Democrat can win it, it would be Warner, considering that he's moderate and from Virginia. If he is nominated and loses West Virginia I would definitely agree with you that it should be considered part of the GOP base.

[Nym90]

Which states would rice win in Primaries? She'd probably end up like Sharpton in '04 and just pull second in DC.

I'm thinking she'll be the Bush-backed candidate.

See, I think you're wrong there, Harry. The Bush-backed candidate would probably be Allen or Frist.

I agree, which is why neither has much chance of winning the election unless Bush's approval ratings rebound.