CA-50 Special Election Busby vs. Bilbray

[Tender Branson]

Get´s very interesting. After that paper somment i expect a narrow loss for Busby, allthough i hope it comes the other way round.

My prediction: Busby 47 - Bilbray 53

[Alcon]

Ill say;

Bilbray 52%
Busby 46%
Other 2%

Rounding error to Bilbray.  Basically, a margin of 6 or so.

[Tender Branson]

Just saw that there are also some others in the race:

Therefore it´s:

Busby - 47
Bilbray - 51
Others - 2

[Keystone Phil]

Bilbray - 53%
Busby - 46%
Other - 1%

[TheresNoMoney]

Bilbray wins by 5%.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I am going to be partisan and predict that Busby wins.  I think that this race is a genuine toss-up and that both sides have a 50:50 chance of victory:

BUSBY 49%
BILBRAY 48%

[MarkWarner08]

The infamous "papers" remark will cancel out the damage done by the McCain fiasco.

Bilbray: 49%
Busby 46%
Griffith: 3%
Libertarian: 2%

54% votes for GOP leaning candidates in a district that went 55% for Bush.

This race says as much about the November '06 elections as  Chandler and Herseth's '04 victories predicted in Nov '04 election.

[Sam Spade]

The infamous "papers" remark will cancel out the damage done by the McCain fiasco.

Bilbray: 49%
Busby 46%
Griffith: 3%
Libertarian: 2%

54% votes for GOP leaning candidates in a district that went 55% for Bush.

This race says as much about the November '06 elections as  Chandler and Herseth's '04 victories predicted in Nov '04 election.

Even though I said Bilbray by 2 in the earlier thread, I think your prediction is probably better. 

Here's what to look for:  About 12:00 EST, the absentees will start coming in.

My prediction is that if Bilbray is only by 5% in those, he will probably go down.  If he's up by 5-10%, we will see a close race, but edge Bilbray (more with a greater percentage).  If he's above 10% in an absentee lead, it's over with.

[Eraserhead]

I predict...

Bilbray 50%

Busby 47%

Others 3%

Democrats suck at winning elections. I hope I'm surprised tonight though.

[Flying Dog]

Busby 50%

Bilbray 48%

[Flying Dog]

Reports about LOW TURNOUT are circulating.




 I think the minutman candidate will siphone off enough votes from bilbray that busby will win

[Eraserhead]

Reports about LOW TURNOUT are circulating.




 I think the minutman candidate will siphone off enough votes from bilbray that busby will win

Low turnout is almost always bad for democrats.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Reports about LOW TURNOUT are circulating.




 I think the minutman candidate will siphone off enough votes from bilbray that busby will win

Low turnout is almost always bad for democrats.

I bet it would have helped in the 2004 election, since the average Kerry voter felt far more strongly about the election than the average Bush voter.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Its really hard to predict these special elections in California as a high percentage of the vote typically comes from 'early'  voting.

My best guess when the dust settles is:

Bilbray               Republican          49%
Busby                Democrat            45
Griffith               Independent         4
King                   Libertarian            2

Bilbray is a lackluster candidate who barely won the Republican primary.

[Flying Dog]

Reports about LOW TURNOUT are circulating.




 I think the minutman candidate will siphone off enough votes from bilbray that busby will win

Low turnout is almost always bad for democrats.

Maybe not in this republican distirct

[Alcon]

I am not sure low turnout is necessarily great for either party here.  You could either say that only the most energised voters - the Democrats - will turn out.  You could also say that those energised voters aren't turning out, leaving the Republican-leaning base.  It could very well be a mix.

However, registered voter turnout in this district is usually quite excellent.  I would be suspicious of any report claiming that turnout is exceptionally low.  Even if they are unhappy with the choices, this seems like the sort of district where people ote.

Where are these turnout reports coming from?  Mail ballots or precinct voters?

[Flying Dog]

I am not sure low turnout is necessarily great for either party here.  You could either say that only the most energised voters - the Democrats - will turn out.  You could also say that those energised voters aren't turning out, leaving the Republican-leaning base.  It could very well be a mix.

However, registered voter turnout in this district is usually quite excellent.  I would be suspicious of any report claiming that turnout is exceptionally low.  Even if they are unhappy with the choices, this seems like the sort of district where people ote.

Where are these turnout reports coming from?  Mail ballots or precinct voters?

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20060606-9999-1n6elect.html

[Soaring Eagle]

Wait a sec. It's Satan Day, isn't it? That means Bilbray will win.

Note: The above comment was a joke and is not meant to be taken seriously.

[Alcon]

I am not sure low turnout is necessarily great for either party here.  You could either say that only the most energised voters - the Democrats - will turn out.  You could also say that those energised voters aren't turning out, leaving the Republican-leaning base.  It could very well be a mix.

However, registered voter turnout in this district is usually quite excellent.  I would be suspicious of any report claiming that turnout is exceptionally low.  Even if they are unhappy with the choices, this seems like the sort of district where people ote.

Where are these turnout reports coming from?  Mail ballots or precinct voters?

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20060606-9999-1n6elect.html

Hmm, that is statewide, isn't it?  That means about half the statewide turnout than in 2004.  I bet that will be much higher in the 50th, though.

[Defarge]

*sigh* I'm afraid not, though I would be quite happy if Busby did win.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Bilbray will win, but it will obviously be closer than it would normally be.

True.

1. Bilbray is a poor candidate.

2. Turnout should be higher among Democrats than Republicans due to contested Governor's race.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bilbray will win, but it will obviously be closer than it would normally be.

True.

1. Bilbray is a poor candidate.

2. Turnout should be higher among Democrats than Republicans due to contested Governor's race.

The 2 candidates for governor went negative on each other, which will likely hurt turnout. Maybe they should have run for Lt. governor, and those 2 good candidates for Lt. governor should have run for governor.

[Eraserhead]

Does anyone know how the early voting is shaping up or anything?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Appearantly the Republican party has spent over $10 million on this race. I wonder how much that will be per vote Bilbray gets?

[Nym90]

I certainly hope Busby wins. If she can at least come very close, however, it would be a bad sign overall for the GOP.