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Author Topic: California satan day election results  (Read 7540 times)
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jfern
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« on: June 06, 2006, 10:03:28 pm »
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Primaries:
http://vote.ss.ca.gov/

3.0% reporting
Governor: Angelides leads Westly 48.5-43.1
Lt. Governor: Garamendi leads Speier 42.4-41.1
Secretary of State: Debra Bowen winning
Controller: Chiang leads Dunn 54.0-46.0
Treasurer: Lockyer unopposed
Attorney Gneeral: Jerry Brown winning
Insurance commissioner: Bustamente winning (damn)
US Senate: Feinstein landsliding (I voted against her)

CA-11: Not reporting

Prop 81 is 46.3%
Prop 82 is 41.9%







CA-50: Bilbray leads Bushby 50.6-42.9 with 11.4% reporting. Both are easily winning their primaries at the same time (confusing, huh?).
http://www.sdvote.org/election/congress.xml



« Last Edit: June 06, 2006, 10:40:16 pm by jfern »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2006, 10:12:39 pm »
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they are absentee only.  Republicans always lead in early absentee returns
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« Reply #2 on: June 06, 2006, 10:16:25 pm »
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they are absentee only.  Republicans always lead in early absentee returns

I'm not sure if Republicans always lead absentees in California, but in any case, CA-50 has 57/500 precincts reporting.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: June 06, 2006, 10:30:45 pm »
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These are the early absentees.  If you would have read my earlier post on the other thread, you would know what I predicted would happen in the absentees and how it would translate into the election.

Now knowing the absentees, it is about a 90% certainty that Bilbray will win.  Not 100%, but very likely
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« Reply #4 on: June 06, 2006, 11:01:56 pm »
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Results are coming in slowly.  Primary updates with 6.7% in:

Governor:  Angelides beating Westly 48.1-42.9
lt. Governor: Flip flopping lead with Garamendi beating Speier 43.1-40.5
Controller: Chiang leading Dunn 52.3-47.7

Both Props likely going down

CA-50 returns stalled.
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« Reply #5 on: June 06, 2006, 11:44:01 pm »
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Man, this election is really slow.

9.1%
Governor: Angelides beating Westly 47.1-43.8
Lt. Gov.: Garamendia beating Speier 42.5-41.0
Controller: Chiang beating Dunn 52.7-47.3

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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2006, 12:06:48 am »
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they are absentee only.  Republicans always lead in early absentee returns

In my experience of watching the last dozen or so elections, this tends to be the case.

As this is the primaries, the major races may or may not fluctuate much from that fact.

Propositions are a different matter though.  Generally, liberal props tend to gain ground as the night moves on, and conservitive ones sink a bit.  (usually if a lib starts over 50 it's a good bet, and vice versa for conservative ones.)

At this point (13% of votes counted) 81 - Library bonds - is down 44.6 to 55.4.  Rough guess, I give it a 50-50 chance of passing.

82 - tax the rich for preschool, is down 40.8-50.2.  I give it a 1:3 chance of closing and crossing the gap.
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« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2006, 12:14:17 am »
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We've a lead change in the Dem LG race - Speer has taken a lead for the moment 42.6 to 41.4 over Garamendi with 13.4 in.  It may be a long night for this race.
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« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2006, 12:16:21 am »
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they are absentee only.  Republicans always lead in early absentee returns

In my experience of watching the last dozen or so elections, this tends to be the case.

As this is the primaries, the major races may or may not fluctuate much from that fact.

Propositions are a different matter though.  Generally, liberal props tend to gain ground as the night moves on, and conservitive ones sink a bit.  (usually if a lib starts over 50 it's a good bet, and vice versa for conservative ones.)

At this point (13% of votes counted) 81 - Library bonds - is down 44.6 to 55.4.  Rough guess, I give it a 50-50 chance of passing.

82 - tax the rich for preschool, is down 40.8-50.2.  I give it a 1:3 chance of closing and crossing the gap.

I think those are a little optimistic on the liberal side. Last year SoCal suburban counties reported relatively early, while LA county held until almost the very end, along with big chunks of Alameda and a couple other Bay counties. This time it looks like LA county and the Bay area have already reported in large numbers, and they arent all that favorable to the propositions.

While I think absentee do generally lean GOP, in the previous CA-50 primary as SamSpade pointed out Busby also achieved about exactly 42.9% and ended up at 43.7%. And that was with another Democrat in the race. Now she is the only Democrat and only pulling the same numbers. Kerry got something like 45% in this district?

I think, the bottom line is, the Democrats still need work on GOTV and moderating the party's stances, but most of all GOTV and fundraising. Plus, when the LA Times doesn't endorse your liberal propositions (like they didnt endorse 82), theres clearly a problem on the PR front.
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« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2006, 12:18:44 am »
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I'm really cheering for Speier and she has huge margins in the Bay area (san mateo county, wow!) but L.A. has not reported anything yet so I fear she has more downside than upside potential.

That said, though Speier (and Westly, who I'm also rooting for) may be at a disadvantage in the regional ballots outstanding, I suspect both did better on election day than in absentee totals.

I'm glad to see Chiang ahead in the contoller's race.  And Debra Bowen is sure performing well.  I hope that bodes well for the race against McPherson.
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« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2006, 12:20:21 am »
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I think both Props are going down, fwiw, but I am much more sure on tax the rich for preschool rather than the library bonds.

Tax the rich for preschool is getting defeated presently in ultra-liberal Marin County.
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« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2006, 12:26:07 am »
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Meanwhile on the GOP side, the controllers race is also tight

Strictland 38.6
Maldonada 37.6

18.4% reporting
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« Reply #12 on: June 07, 2006, 01:02:44 am »
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With 30.3% in...

Angelides 47.4%, Westly 43.6%
Speier 42.0%, Garamendi 41.2%
Chiang 52.7%, Dunn 47.3%

on the GOP side...
Strickland 38.2%, Maldonado 38.1%

California is sure slow tonight...
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« Reply #13 on: June 07, 2006, 01:56:02 am »
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I think Angelides is likely to hold on and win this thing.

Garamandi is now up on Speier by 1.8%

Maldonado leads Strickland very slightly, by 0.6%.  This thing is still ongoing.
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« Reply #14 on: June 07, 2006, 02:02:44 am »
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Bah, I was hoping for Westly.  Oh well.
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« Reply #15 on: June 07, 2006, 02:07:20 am »
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Bah, I was hoping for Westly.  Oh well.

Westly would be the stronger candidate, imho.  It also looks like Garamandi is going to win the Lt. Governor primary and face McClintock in November.
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« Reply #16 on: June 07, 2006, 02:19:20 am »
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GOP primary for Controller:
Strickland v. Maldonado

is the race to watch now.

Nite.
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« Reply #17 on: June 07, 2006, 04:36:10 am »
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Imperial County is such an interesting and odd duck...

Since it has the largest Latino population, it is unusual for its populism.  This was illustrated in the November special election when all of Arnold's anti-labor propositions were defeated with tremendous margins while it was one of the only counties to support the more left-wing props 78 & 79 as well as prop 73, which limited access to abortion for minors..

One also expects imperial County to have a bias towards candidates with Latin surnames...

Latino/as were running on the Dem primary ballot for four statewide offices, including longshots rocky Delgadillo for AG, Deborah Ortiz for Secretary of State, Liz Figueroa for LG.

As expected, each won Imperial County, with Sacramento's Ortiz also picking up her home base and Delgadillo winning heavily Latino Northern Sacramento valley counties and overperforming in L.A.







Of course, since he won every other county in the state, one might expect Cruz Bustamonte to perform particularly well in Imperial County.  But, no, its the only county that he loses!  I don't know what to make of it...

« Last Edit: June 07, 2006, 04:46:26 am by socaldem »Logged

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« Reply #18 on: June 07, 2006, 09:56:37 am »
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Have California's Democratic primary voters just handed Schwarzenegger victory or what?

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« Reply #19 on: June 07, 2006, 10:30:17 am »
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Have California's Democratic primary voters just handed Schwarzenegger victory or what?

Dave

He would likely have won no matter whom Democrats chose, so it really doesn't make that big of a difference. 
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« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2006, 02:55:44 pm »
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Have California's Democratic primary voters just handed Schwarzenegger victory or what?

Dave

He would likely have won no matter whom Democrats chose, so it really doesn't make that big of a difference. 

Yeah, that's right, when Arnold is down 10 points to the candidate I voted for in the primary in a poll, he's completely invulnerable.
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« Reply #21 on: June 07, 2006, 02:59:05 pm »
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Here's a map of Prop 82, useful for determining how economically liberal a county is.



We can conclude that San Francisco and Alameda are highly liberal, Imperial county is California's lone populist county, Napa is libertarian, and Orange county is conservative.
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« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2006, 03:04:52 pm »
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jfern, would you say that Alpine is populist, or it's just a solid split between liberals and conservatives?  The precinct results indicate that it is split between fairly conserative areas and very liberal ones.
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« Reply #23 on: June 07, 2006, 03:07:34 pm »
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jfern, would you say that Alpine is populist, or it's just a solid split between liberals and conservatives?  The precinct results indicate that it is split between fairly conserative areas and very liberal ones.

Seeing as last year, 63% of them voted against parental notification when a minor gets an abortion, I'd say they are definitely socially liberal.

Imperial county is the only populist county in California. A candidate like Frodo would likely lose our 55 electoral votes.

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« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2006, 03:41:44 pm »
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A number of socially conservative counties didn't vote for Washington's partial birth abortion ban.  I'm not always convinced that abortion votes are the best ways to determine that sort of thing.

For instance, the moderately Republican but generally middle-class Clark County voted against legalising marijuana.  I wouldn't call it populist, just suburbanite conservative.  If you kow what I'm getting at...

Sometimes I think that there are a lot of "cultural conservatives" out there who are more uncomfortable than they realise with social conservatism.
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