California satan day election results

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A number of socially conservative counties didn't vote for Washington's partial birth abortion ban.  I'm not always convinced that abortion votes are the best ways to determine that sort of thing.

For instance, the moderately Republican but generally middle-class Clark County voted against legalising marijuana.  I wouldn't call it populist, just suburbanite conservative.  If you kow what I'm getting at...

Sometimes I think that there are a lot of "cultural conservatives" out there who are more uncomfortable than they realise with social conservatism.

Apples to orange comparision, partial birth abortion is a non-medical term, and did the ban make an exception to save the life of the woman? Also, Alpine county did vote for Kerry and Boxer.

[minionofmidas]

A number of socially conservative counties didn't vote for Washington's partial birth abortion ban.  I'm not always convinced that abortion votes are the best ways to determine that sort of thing.

For instance, the moderately Republican but generally middle-class Clark County voted against legalising marijuana.  I wouldn't call it populist, just suburbanite conservative.  If you kow what I'm getting at...

Sometimes I think that there are a lot of "cultural conservatives" out there who are more uncomfortable than they realise with social conservatism.

Apples to orange comparision, partial birth abortion is a non-medical term, and did the ban make an exception to save the life of the woman?

More to the point, what sort of support did it get statewide?

[Alcon]

A number of socially conservative counties didn't vote for Washington's partial birth abortion ban.  I'm not always convinced that abortion votes are the best ways to determine that sort of thing.

For instance, the moderately Republican but generally middle-class Clark County voted against legalising marijuana.  I wouldn't call it populist, just suburbanite conservative.  If you kow what I'm getting at...

Sometimes I think that there are a lot of "cultural conservatives" out there who are more uncomfortable than they realise with social conservatism.

Apples to orange comparision, partial birth abortion is a non-medical term, and did the ban make an exception to save the life of the woman? Also, Alpine county did vote for Kerry and Boxer.

The ban item read as follows:

Shall the termination of a fetus' life during the process of birth be a felony crime except when necessary to prevent the pregnant woman's death?

So, yes, it did, and I think "process of birth" is a pretty clear term.  In fact, with that wording, I'm surprised it failed so badly.  It failed statewide with under 43%.

The medical marijuana item read as follows:

Shall the medical use of marijuana for certain terminal or debilitating conditions be permitted, and physicians authorized to advise patients about medical use of marijuana.

It passed with 59%.

I know Alpine voted for Kerry and Boxer.  That's why I was asking.  It seems odd that the two groups (the liberals and the mainstream conservatives) could have voted together so strongly even 15 years ago if it wasn't for the Democrats being either populists or libertarians.  It's an area which I'd like to know more about (Mono County, too).

This was passed along with an anti-governmental affirmative action proposition (which passed 58%, with support of every county but a narrow defeat in King).

[Nym90]

Jfern, did you vote for Angelides?

[Frodo]

Have California's Democratic primary voters just handed Schwarzenegger victory or what?

Dave

He would likely have won no matter whom Democrats chose, so it really doesn't make that big of a difference. 

Yeah, that's right, when Arnold is down 10 points to the candidate I voted for in the primary in a poll, he's completely invulnerable.

Since you're the type that take polls so seriously, did you believe all those exit polls on election day in 2004 saying Kerry had a lead over George W. Bush? 

[© tweed]

Have California's Democratic primary voters just handed Schwarzenegger victory or what?

Dave

He would likely have won no matter whom Democrats chose, so it really doesn't make that big of a difference. 

Yeah, that's right, when Arnold is down 10 points to the candidate I voted for in the primary in a poll, he's completely invulnerable.

Since you're the type that take polls so seriously, did you believe all those exit polls on election day in 2004 saying Kerry had a lead over George W. Bush? 

Polls aren't exit polls.  Most polls had Bush leading slimly before election day started.

It's generally accepted that Arnold is vulnerably right now and it's factually incorrect to say he isn't. 

[Frodo]

Have California's Democratic primary voters just handed Schwarzenegger victory or what?

Dave

He would likely have won no matter whom Democrats chose, so it really doesn't make that big of a difference. 

Yeah, that's right, when Arnold is down 10 points to the candidate I voted for in the primary in a poll, he's completely invulnerable.

Since you're the type that take polls so seriously, did you believe all those exit polls on election day in 2004 saying Kerry had a lead over George W. Bush? 

Polls aren't exit polls.  Most polls had Bush leading slimly before election day started.

It's generally accepted that Arnold is vulnerably right now and it's factually incorrect to say he isn't. 

It is also a fact that incumbent governors in California usually win re-election after suffering serious setbacks early in their first terms.  Schwarzenegger may be vulnerable, but he has recovered significantly from where he was late last year.  There is nothing to suggest that it won't continue and follow the familiar pattern.   

[© tweed]

It is also a fact that incumbent governors in California usually win re-election after suffering serious setbacks early in their first terms. 

But what was the logic behind your statement to fern? 

Look, I think Arnold will win too, but you brought up this thing about 2004 exit polls which had nothing to do with the discussion.

[Frodo]

It is also a fact that incumbent governors in California usually win re-election after suffering serious setbacks early in their first terms. 

But what was the logic behind your statement to fern? 

Look, I think Arnold will win too, but you brought up this thing about 2004 exit polls which had nothing to do with the discussion.

Jfern seems especially gullible when it comes to polls, so I asked in a mocking and sarcastic manner whether he also took the exit polls in 2004 at face value as he seems to be doing now with regard to Angelides' supposed lead over Schwarzenegger, and deducing from that that he will win in November. 

It was merely a hypothetical question that was more a statement than an actual question. 

[© tweed]

It is also a fact that incumbent governors in California usually win re-election after suffering serious setbacks early in their first terms. 

But what was the logic behind your statement to fern? 

Look, I think Arnold will win too, but you brought up this thing about 2004 exit polls which had nothing to do with the discussion.

Jfern seems especially gullible when it comes to polls, so I asked in a mocking and sarcastic manner whether he also took the exit polls in 2004 at face value as he seems to be doing now with regard to Angelides' supposed lead over Schwarzenegger, and deducing from that that he will win in November. 

It was merely a hypothetical question that was more a statement than an actual question. 

Actually, he didn't say much of anything about the exit polls on 110204.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It is also a fact that incumbent governors in California usually win re-election after suffering serious setbacks early in their first terms. 

But what was the logic behind your statement to fern? 

Look, I think Arnold will win too, but you brought up this thing about 2004 exit polls which had nothing to do with the discussion.

Jfern seems especially gullible when it comes to polls, so I asked in a mocking and sarcastic manner whether he also took the exit polls in 2004 at face value as he seems to be doing now with regard to Angelides' supposed lead over Schwarzenegger, and deducing from that that he will win in November. 

It was merely a hypothetical question that was more a statement than an actual question. 

Go start a war, stupid warmonger.

[socaldem]

A number of socially conservative counties didn't vote for Washington's partial birth abortion ban.  I'm not always convinced that abortion votes are the best ways to determine that sort of thing.

For instance, the moderately Republican but generally middle-class Clark County voted against legalising marijuana.  I wouldn't call it populist, just suburbanite conservative.  If you kow what I'm getting at...

Sometimes I think that there are a lot of "cultural conservatives" out there who are more uncomfortable than they realise with social conservatism.

Apples to orange comparision, partial birth abortion is a non-medical term, and did the ban make an exception to save the life of the woman? Also, Alpine county did vote for Kerry and Boxer.

The ban item read as follows:

Shall the termination of a fetus' life during the process of birth be a felony crime except when necessary to prevent the pregnant woman's death?

So, yes, it did, and I think "process of birth" is a pretty clear term.  In fact, with that wording, I'm surprised it failed so badly.  It failed statewide with under 43%.

The medical marijuana item read as follows:

Shall the medical use of marijuana for certain terminal or debilitating conditions be permitted, and physicians authorized to advise patients about medical use of marijuana.

It passed with 59%.

I know Alpine voted for Kerry and Boxer.  That's why I was asking.  It seems odd that the two groups (the liberals and the mainstream conservatives) could have voted together so strongly even 15 years ago if it wasn't for the Democrats being either populists or libertarians.  It's an area which I'd like to know more about (Mono County, too).

This was passed along with an anti-governmental affirmative action proposition (which passed 58%, with support of every county but a narrow defeat in King).

An awful lot of fuss about the whopping 700 voters in Alpine County!   Since .00564% of the state's voters live there, it could be crucial!

[Gustaf]

It is also a fact that incumbent governors in California usually win re-election after suffering serious setbacks early in their first terms. 

But what was the logic behind your statement to fern? 

Look, I think Arnold will win too, but you brought up this thing about 2004 exit polls which had nothing to do with the discussion.

Jfern seems especially gullible when it comes to polls, so I asked in a mocking and sarcastic manner whether he also took the exit polls in 2004 at face value as he seems to be doing now with regard to Angelides' supposed lead over Schwarzenegger, and deducing from that that he will win in November. 

It was merely a hypothetical question that was more a statement than an actual question. 

Go start a war, stupid warmonger.

Good response.

The only poll showing Angelides ahead is LA Times. I rest my case.

[Alcon]

An awful lot of fuss about the whopping 700 voters in Alpine County!   Since .00564% of the state's voters live there, it could be crucial!

It's an interesting topic of discussion because it used to be an extraordinarily Republican county and now it is not.  What's the big deal?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It is also a fact that incumbent governors in California usually win re-election after suffering serious setbacks early in their first terms. 

But what was the logic behind your statement to fern? 

Look, I think Arnold will win too, but you brought up this thing about 2004 exit polls which had nothing to do with the discussion.

Jfern seems especially gullible when it comes to polls, so I asked in a mocking and sarcastic manner whether he also took the exit polls in 2004 at face value as he seems to be doing now with regard to Angelides' supposed lead over Schwarzenegger, and deducing from that that he will win in November. 

It was merely a hypothetical question that was more a statement than an actual question. 

Go start a war, stupid warmonger.

Good response.

The only poll showing Angelides ahead is LA Times. I rest my case.

There were others before the primary really got under way. It's awfully arrogant of you out of state DINOs to be calling this race already.

[minionofmidas]

An awful lot of fuss about the whopping 700 voters in Alpine County!   Since .00564% of the state's voters live there, it could be crucial!

It's an interesting topic of discussion because it used to be an extraordinarily Republican county and now it is not.  What's the big deal?

Well from what I understand it's basically 40% Mormon, 25% Peyotist, and 30% young tourism industry workers who were probably mostly born in the Bay Area and the northern part of the Central Valley. (adds to 95% because there's bound to be some people who don't fit in)... and the recent growth (huge in percentage, though small in numbers) is in the last of these figures. Hardly surprising it changed hands, then.

[adam]

Bummer,  I liked Westly. Oh well...either way I think the governators days are numbered.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

An awful lot of fuss about the whopping 700 voters in Alpine County!   Since .00564% of the state's voters live there, it could be crucial!

It's an interesting topic of discussion because it used to be an extraordinarily Republican county and now it is not.  What's the big deal?

Well from what I understand it's basically 40% Mormon, 25% Peyotist, and 30% young tourism industry workers who were probably mostly born in the Bay Area and the northern part of the Central Valley. (adds to 95% because there's bound to be some people who don't fit in)... and the recent growth (huge in percentage, though small in numbers) is in the last of these figures. Hardly surprising it changed hands, then.

I assume that Mono county is similar?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The general election campaign is in full gear.

Here's Angelides with Westly and the State Assembly Speaker.



Anyways, some people on this forum may be underating Angelides. He was the California Democratic chair from 1991-1993. California basically changed from a Republican state to a Democratic state in that period. DiFi won a Republican Senate seat, while the other seat went to liberal Boxer. In the previous 10 Presidential elections, California had only gone for LBJ in his blowout landslide. California is now a safe Democrat state.

[minionofmidas]

An awful lot of fuss about the whopping 700 voters in Alpine County!   Since .00564% of the state's voters live there, it could be crucial!

It's an interesting topic of discussion because it used to be an extraordinarily Republican county and now it is not.  What's the big deal?

Well from what I understand it's basically 40% Mormon, 25% Peyotist, and 30% young tourism industry workers who were probably mostly born in the Bay Area and the northern part of the Central Valley. (adds to 95% because there's bound to be some people who don't fit in)... and the recent growth (huge in percentage, though small in numbers) is in the last of these figures. Hardly surprising it changed hands, then.

I assume that Mono county is similar?

Only in that it's got the tourism sector worker influx as well. Fewer Mormons, fewer Indians, and they're not Peyotists as far as I'm aware. Unlike Alpine it's got a sizeable "normal" rural American element.

[jman724]

Anyways, some people on this forum may be underating Angelides. He was the California Democratic chair from 1991-1993. California basically changed from a Republican state to a Democratic state in that period. DiFi won a Republican Senate seat, while the other seat went to liberal Boxer. In the previous 10 Presidential elections, California had only gone for LBJ in his blowout landslide. California is now a safe Democrat state.

maybe i'm missing something, but why do you think in a brief two year period california became a democratic state?  that is an awfully short period of time.  It seems like it usually takes at least 10 years for a state to shift completely from one side to the other. 

[adam]

Bummer,  I liked Westly. Oh well...either way I think the governators days are numbered.

I agree. My current formula has Angelides besting the Governator by 3. Let's hope it widens in the next 5 months.

If Arnold wins, it wont be because he did something miraculous. This is Angelides race to screw up. The Cali Dems, at least as far as the governorship is concerned, are going to be vulnerable until they can fully convince people that they aren't still a proponent of Gray Davis. Angelides has his work layed out for him...if he says anything Davis like than his numbers are going to slip.

[Alcon]

Am I the only one who thinks that Angelides looks a little like Richard Belzer?

[Nym90]

Am I the only one who thinks that Angelides looks a little like Richard Belzer?

Yes.

I'm just kidding, of course.

[adam]

Am I the only one who thinks that Angelides looks a little like Richard Belzer?

I can see it.