Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 01, 2014, 06:57:21 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
| | |-+  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
| | | |-+  Rasmussen Georgia Poll...
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Rasmussen Georgia Poll...  (Read 4459 times)
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3751


View Profile
« on: June 03, 2004, 10:26:49 am »
Ignore

is not newsworthy in that it is from a non battleground state.  What is interesting is that it reflects the same exact 12 pt margin that occurred in the 2000 election.  It's like nothing has happened in the last four years to move the numbers from where they ended up in 2000.

In state after state it's as if nothing at all happened to change anything over the last four yrs.
Logged
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56871
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2004, 10:38:38 am »
Ignore

Before I'll make a commet... what were the actual numbers?
Leads are meaningless to me...
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
millwx
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 402


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2004, 10:40:05 am »
Ignore

In state after state it's as if nothing at all happened to change anything over the last four yrs.
I think it's simply because the nation is so polarized... other than that modest 10-15% of "swing" voters.  Neither Gore nor Kerry are "attractive" candidates.  So, to a large degree (IMO) both 2000 and 2004 are referendums on the same person... Bush.  So, given the polarization, there's no way to shift anything.  Voters who supported Bush in 2000 were so staunchly pro-Bush that they're not likely to be swayed by anything.  He could appoint Osama as new CIA director and the 2000 Bush voters would still vote for him in 2004.  Ditto for the anti-Bush voters.  Unemployment could go to zero and we could pull out of a stable Iraq by September and the 2000 anti-Bush voters would still vote for Kerry in 2004.

Yes, that's hyperbole, but you get my point... It will be VERY difficult to sway voters' opinions.
Logged

The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: June 03, 2004, 10:46:11 am »
Ignore

Before I'll make a commet... what were the actual numbers?
Leads are meaningless to me...

51/39

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=13200405310
Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56871
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #4 on: June 03, 2004, 10:53:11 am »
Ignore


Thanks Smiley
Not good numbers for Bush, but nothing that'll make him panic... on the balance of probabilities Bush holds GA, however it isn't beyond reasonable doubt.
Kinda what I'd expected really.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: June 03, 2004, 11:02:25 am »
Ignore


Thanks Smiley
Not good numbers for Bush, but nothing that'll make him panic... on the balance of probabilities Bush holds GA, however it isn't beyond reasonable doubt.
Kinda what I'd expected really.

Actually, almost a clone of 2000.

In 2000:

Bush got 54.67%
Gore got 42.98%

Lead = 11.69% versus 12% +/- 5% quoted in survey

Georgia is a very polarized state.  If you're Black or dirt poor you vote Democrat, if you're not, you vote Republican.

Blacks made up 35.73% of actual voters in Georgia in 2000 (highest Black turnout as a % to total votes cast in the nation)

Blacks went 92/8 for Gore
Non-Blacks went 81/19% for Bush
« Last Edit: June 03, 2004, 11:03:20 am by The Vorlon »Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56871
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #6 on: June 03, 2004, 11:10:50 am »
Ignore

Almost a clone but not quite Grin
Mind you, GA has a weirdly volatile electorate (despite, or possibly because, of the polarisation).
Suburban Atlanta is very conservative... kinda like NOVA in the '80's actually...
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4567


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: June 03, 2004, 11:18:49 am »
Ignore

Almost a clone but not quite Grin
Mind you, GA has a weirdly volatile electorate (despite, or possibly because, of the polarisation).
Suburban Atlanta is very conservative... kinda like NOVA in the '80's actually...

Yes Mr. Grammar/word usuge nazi.. you are correct Sad

Clone is like "unique"

It is a clone, or it is not
It is unique, or it is not.

Can't be "almost" of either.

How about "similar to 2000" then.... Wink
Logged

No man's liberty is safe while Congress is in session...Thomas Jefferson
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56871
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #8 on: June 03, 2004, 11:39:59 am »
Ignore

% Democrat vote 2000


Population by County 2000


The Dems are still holding their own in most of rural GA, but the suburbs have been slowly killing them since Jimmy Carter left electoral politics...
Rural GA has lost almost all it's political influence (shame, the people there are nice. Oh well. Sanford Bishop for Prez!)
---
Grammer Nazi? I prefer "pedant" Grin
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1761


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2004, 11:42:03 am »
Ignore

I have a feeling that almost all undecideds will go to Kerry, unless he seriously s up or Bush gets his sh**t together.  However, knowing Kerry the former is highly likely.
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35715
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2004, 12:56:33 pm »
Ignore

12% seems like a reasonable spread
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1761


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2004, 01:11:20 pm »
Ignore

I'm predicting a final result of 51-45-2-2 Bush-Kerry-Badnarik-Peroutka.
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
millwx
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 402


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2004, 01:14:33 pm »
Ignore


51/39


FWIW, their Missouri poll is out now too...  44% Bush, 43% Kerry
Logged

WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21043


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2004, 01:29:09 pm »
Ignore

I'm predicting a final result of 51-45-2-2 Bush-Kerry-Badnarik-Peroutka.

good laugh.

are you saying that 4% of georgian voters are going to vote for a nut?  give the people of georgia a little more credit.

im a conservative, but id vote for ralph nader with a smile on my face before id even consider voting for badnarik or peroutka <cringe>
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56871
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2004, 01:36:37 pm »
Ignore

I'm predicting a final result of 51-45-2-2 Bush-Kerry-Badnarik-Peroutka.

good laugh.

are you saying that 4% of georgian voters are going to vote for a nut?  give the people of georgia a little more credit.

im a conservative, but id vote for ralph nader with a smile on my face before id even consider voting for badnarik or peroutka <cringe>

Cobb County voted for Newt for about 30 years...
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1761


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2004, 01:57:00 pm »
Ignore

The libertarian party won 2% last time.

I think that especially if Roy Moore is campaigning for the Constitution party, they will pull around 2 off of Bush's numbers in the south.
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21043


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2004, 02:38:07 pm »
Ignore

as a southerner, i think roy moore is an embarrassment.

he's a modern day george wallace.  

ironic that moore would campaign for a member of the 'constitution party', seeing as how moore snubs his nose at the constitution and the rule of law.
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1761


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2004, 02:48:24 pm »
Ignore

But you have to admit that pulling 2 points from Bush in the south isn't very farfetched.
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21043


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2004, 03:00:42 pm »
Ignore

i dont know about 2%.  moore isnt being honest with the people.  this isnt about religion or the ten commandements, it's about the rule of law.  im a god fearing man, but i strongly believe we must abide by the supreme court rulings (even those i disagree with)

i visited the constitution party website.  this peroutka character is scary.  he seems like he is advocating nothing short of a theocracy.

i find it amusing that he uses the word 'sodomy' quite frequently.

peroutka on education:

"Our public schools are a cesspool of politically correct, condom dispensing, sodomy promoting sewage that calls itself education."

peroutka on marriage:

"First, we do not support any sodomy-based policy, let alone marriage"


"He slams President Bush for promoting "safe sodomy" and doling out tax dollars to Planned Parenthood."

and my personal favorite:


"* If John Kerry was President, he might appoint pro-sodomy and pro-abortion people to high government positions."


lol!!! 'pro-sodomy'
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
Storebought
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3054
View Profile
« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2004, 03:08:41 pm »
Ignore

I never understood the appeal of disbarred Judge Moore, either.

What is he famous for? Getting removed from office by not removing a hunk of granite from a courthouse. Lame.

Who does Roy Moore intend to campaign against? President Bush, who, for all his faults, is exterminating the Religion of Peace faster than they can breed.
Logged
WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21043


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2004, 04:47:40 pm »
Ignore

i intend on smiling and voting for bush.
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35715
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2004, 06:00:39 pm »
Ignore

Chances are that Peroutka will NOT be on the Georgia ballot. Badnarik is already on but the Constitution Party needs to collect over 37,000 valid signatures before July 13th to gain a spot on the ballot. By the way, Nader had only collected 800 signatures as of June 1st toward that 37,153 valid signature requirement so you might not even be able to smile and vote for him either.

Where did you get that info?
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72587
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: June 03, 2004, 06:03:58 pm »
Ignore

That's good news about Nader, he must be doing pathetic elsewhere also then.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35715
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2004, 06:12:38 pm »
Ignore

I doubt Nader would do well in Georgia anyway.  The south is not third party friendly.
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3698


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

View Profile
« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2004, 06:53:19 pm »
Ignore


Anyone seen anything about a new InsiderAdvantage poll in Georgia?  I saw it on Insider Politics, but I can't find it on the web.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines