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Author Topic: Has Zogby's methodology completely self destructed?  (Read 2522 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: June 02, 2004, 12:56:08 am »
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These are the results of Zogby's 2002 tracking polls + the 2004 South Dakota House race.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=648

This is how Zogby has done over his last 14 polls.

Has the Zogby Methodological house of cards come tumbling down?



« Last Edit: June 02, 2004, 11:36:19 am by The Vorlon »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2004, 04:07:18 am »
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I think the way Zogby keeps getting by is through the media.  They love using Zogby because he has a massive leftward slant.  Zogby openly denounces Bush on campaign issues.
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« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2004, 07:31:23 am »
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« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2004, 08:48:15 am »
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These are the results of Zogby's 2002 tracking polls + the 2004 South Dakota House race.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=648

This is how Zogby has done over his last 14 polls.

Has the Zogby Methodological house of cards come tumbling down?





I think I made my comments about Zogby's unreliability and bias a few weeks ago.

He had some early good results primarily in New York,

Since 2000 he has become the cheerleader for the Democrats.

He's blown his credibility.

Wonder if he is getting funding from Soros, et al.?
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2004, 09:07:24 am »
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How do you figure an error of 9 in the Georgia race?   This looks like he was off by 5 to me.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2004, 09:10:15 am »
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Interesting that he missed South Dakota by 6 in the other direction last time.  Maybe he readjusted his weighting in that state to favor Dems?
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tweed
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2004, 09:32:51 am »
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"Zogby is the Drudge Report of pollsters."  -The Vorlon
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2004, 10:53:15 am »
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"Zogby is the Drudge Report of pollsters."  -The Vorlon

hahaha . . . I love it.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2004, 11:08:49 am »
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How do you figure an error of 9 in the Georgia race?   This looks like he was off by 5 to me.

Sorry, it is 9% - I just reversed the two candidates Chambliss did win! - Corrected now and thanks for noticing !
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2004, 11:25:15 am »
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"Zogby is the Drudge Report of pollsters."  -The Vorlon

Couldn't have said it better myself.. Cheesy
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2004, 04:04:59 pm »
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"Zogby is the Drudge Report of pollsters."  -The Vorlon

hahaha . . . I love it.

Yeah, but the difference is Drudge is successfully entertaining, but Zogby is seriously failing.
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2004, 05:38:21 pm »
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Yeah, but the difference is Drudge is successfully entertaining, but Zogby is seriously failing.

How is showing Bush doing 8.3% better in MO than IA not entertaining?  Smiley
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« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2004, 05:58:26 pm »
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"Zogby is the Drudge Report of pollsters."  -The Vorlon

hahaha . . . I love it.

Yeah, but the difference is Drudge is successfully entertaining, but Zogby is seriously failing.

I check both sites regularly, and you are right, they are entertaining.  However, I am surprised by the rhetoric which is constantly spouted on the Zogby site.  At least this site everyone (for the most part) is civil and informed.  You should check out the "Drudge Retort" website, the liberal parody website.  Now that is scary.  So many people believe the conspiracy theories listed there.
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« Reply #13 on: June 04, 2004, 10:15:11 am »
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This analysis may actually understate Zogby's inaccuracy.   For those who were following Zogby's polls on his website during the Democratic primaries, he was notorious for having "off-the-wall" results for a long period of time, and then suddenly having a massive shift of his results closer to the "consensus" of other polls the day before the election.

Thus, any results looking at his last-day tracking polls will often understate just how far out in left-field his polls really were.

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #14 on: June 04, 2004, 11:36:16 am »
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This analysis may actually understate Zogby's inaccuracy.   For those who were following Zogby's polls on his website during the Democratic primaries, he was notorious for having "off-the-wall" results for a long period of time, and then suddenly having a massive shift of his results closer to the "consensus" of other polls the day before the election.

Thus, any results looking at his last-day tracking polls will often understate just how far out in left-field his polls really were.

TheOldLine

Zogby has always cut just a stunning array of corners on his polls.  He breaks a very large numbers for faily fundemental rules, but has always, generally speaking, been able to compensate by adding a variety of weights and adjustments to his raw data.

In 2000 he did "ok" - not great but OK.  His National poll was only 2% off, but about 40% of his state by state results were just totally screwed, (He had Gore and Bush TIED in California at the end)

I expect he had made some adjustments for 2004, or at least I hope he has.  He is a businessman, and a smart one, at the end of the day his "product" (accurate results) have to be there or he will go under.
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« Reply #15 on: June 04, 2004, 09:59:48 pm »
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There is an interesting phenomenon in polling.

Those who primarily poll for non-political get fired if their predictions are grossly wrong or they are overpriced.

Firms that provide private political polls don't get used much if they really blow it.

However, remember who pays for the polls (or at least the majority) of polls about politics you see on a daily basis.

As long as the poll produced tilts in the direction of the liberal media (that commissions those polls) they are very forgiving of the pollster and will use the firm again and again, even if it is inaccurate (just not extremely inaccurate) in the right (meaning left) direction.
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