Oregan Poll: Kerry leads by 5 with Nadar in ballot

[nomorelies]

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=8387

I myself had fears over Oregan, but it appears that the democratic party need not worry. This last month, the polls have showed that the democrats are consolidating Democrat ground but also making ground in states like Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia and Virginia. Oregan is a state that the Republicans want.
Kerry is up by 5 points. 49% Kerry 44% Bush Nadar 2%. Considering how tight Oregan was in 2000, this shows that the democrats are beginning to consolidate their own ground. Kerry spent time in Oregan in May so it shows that on the ground voters are appealing to him.

[The Vorlon]

Zogby Internet poll.



His regular polls are not even working properly, so I would really be careful about any of his internet stuff.

For example, Zogby has bush up 5 in Iowa and down 3 in Missouri via the internet...

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=4306

[WalterMitty]

bush will win oregon.

[nomorelies]

Fox News does the same. A couple of days ago they said that Minnesota was looking bad for Kerry as the democrats won by a larger margin. But everyone knows that the democrats only won Minnesota by around 2%. i think the result was gore 47.91 bush 45.50. John Zogby is democrat, i have no doubt. i think Oregon and Wisconsin will be won by Kerry despite the high number of cultural conservatives who lean republican

[The Vorlon]

Fox News does the same. A couple of days ago they said that Minnesota was looking bad for Kerry as the democrats won by a larger margin. But everyone knows that the democrats only won Minnesota by around 2%. i think the result was gore 47.91 bush 45.50. John Zogby is democrat, i have no doubt. i think Oregon and Wisconsin will be won by Kerry despite the high number of cultural conservatives who lean republican

Oregon - Very close
Wisconsin - Lean Kerry

By way of Contrast, here is a poll showing Bush +5 in Oregon

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=41200405130

The firm which conducted it, Riley Research, has a fairly decent record in Oregon.

In 2002 they polled the Oregon Governors race and missed by only 1%, they also polled the Senate Race, and missed by 5%

In direct contradiction, Research 2000 (Who polled the same two races in Oregon in 20002 and missed by very similar 2% and 5% margins) has Kerry up 2%

http://www.portlandtribune.com/archview.cgi?id=24200

The Riley sample was a tab bigger, and had Bush up by more than the Research2000 had Kerry up, so if forced to pick I'd say Bush was up a tad, but in reality there is no way to tell.

[nomorelies]

I agree with you that they will be close like 2000, but the democrats will still through. but kerry has to keep spending money in other states to expand the possibilities. we cant rely on 21 or so states that HAVE to come in. we have gained New Hampshire i reckon. we could gain Nevada if we can increase turnout. West Virginia is beginning to look a lost cause. Pennsylvania is vital as it sures up the vote in New Jersey.