Romney in Michigan 2002

[Keystone Phil]

If Romney "would have chosen Michigan" in 2002 to run for Governor, would he have run as a more social conservative candidate, something he obviously couldn't do in MA? Would he have won?

Comments, especially from Michigan residents, are welcome.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Good idea for a post.  I'd be thinking about that to.  I suppose if Romney could get elected in Massachusetts he could certainly have been elected in Michigan. His organisation of the Utah Winter Olympics really helped his campaign.  I also think Michigan would have been favourable obviously because of his father's governorship.  However, he would have faced a competetive Republican primary if Dick Posthumous? had run.  I still think he'd have been favoured though.  Granholm was a strong candidate in the general; the race would have been a tossup but I think Romney could have prevailed.  Being a social conservative doesn't kill you does it?  He would have been so much better running in Michigan, he could have run for re-election, although he would face a hard fight.  But being able to carry the state for the GOP in 2008 would have made him a lot more competetive in a Republican primary.

[WalterMitty]

phil, romeny is a social conservative in mass.

of course, he drifted further to the right since his election.  but even during the campaign he was obviously more socially conservative than any of the previous republican governors in the bay state.

in fact, he probably won the election  due to social issues.  shannon o'brien wanted to lower the age of consent to some ridiculous age.  she also favored basically unrestricted abortion.

[Keystone Phil]

phil, romeny is a social conservative in mass.

I said would he run as one to deflect comments from people like you.   

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I didn't know that. However, wouldn't that be more of O'Brien campaigning on social issues and looking like a nut job? I highly doubt Romney stressed being a social conservative throughout the campaign. In a state like Michigan, though, that wouldn't be a problem.

Granholm was a strong candidate in the general; the race would have been a tossup but I think Romney could have prevailed. 

Granholm was a strong candidate but I believe she only won by about three points.

[Nym90]

He would have run more socially conservative than he did in Massachusetts, I'm sure, but I doubt he could have beaten Granholm. She was pretty popular from her time as Attorney General, plus there would be the carpetbagging issue. Yes, his dad was Governor of Michigan, but that was 35 years before this so it wouldn't really carry much of any weight with voters.

The race in 2002 ended up being closer than the polls predicted, but Granholm still won by 4 points. Engler still had pretty decent approval ratings so that's why his Lt. Governor came close to winning.

[HardRCafé]

Granholm didn't screw up at the end like O'Brien.

[Lincoln Republican]

Perhaps Romney should have made his home in Michigan, which it was originally, instead of in Massachusetts.

Romney certainly could have run as a social conservative in Michigan.

Likely he could have been elected as Governor of Michigan, served two terms, then get elected to the U.S. Senate.

From there, he could launched a very effective campaign for President, without people accusing him of not wanting to face the voters of his state again, like they have accused him of in Massachusetts.     

[Republican Michigander]

I don't know if Romney would win or not. If he was pro-life(like he claims now), maybe. If he was pro-2nd amendment (question mark), maybe.

Granholm nearly lost because of social issues. She won because of state workers PO'ed at Engler.

North Michigan didn't like Engler and took it out on Posthumus. The UP (and northeast MI was 50/50) went for Granholm and Bush twice.

Eaton/Ingham/Clinton Counties went big for Granholm. Clinton County went 53% for Posthumus, but that's really a Granhom win as it's a 58% Bush county. Eaton went for Granholm in 02 - and Bush Twice. Ingham went more for Granholm than Bush despite East Lansing.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I think he would have run as a more social conservative than he could in MA; however, I think he would have lost to Granholm.  She was quite popular as the A.G., and I think that's what got her into office.  She was well known and liked--but so was Engler--and that's why it was such a close race.  Posthumus was L.G., so with Engler being so popular, some of that carried over to Posthumus, but not enough to give him the win.  W/o this popularity, Romney wouldn't have been able to be as close to winning as Posthumus was.