Fitzpatrick's not going down in PA-8.
The democrats in PA 8 are darn near incompetent
I agree with you historically, but if a "wave election" appears, and that's what the Democrats want, Fitz will be in that dangerous Lean Rep. category naturally. His seat is too marginal and his opponent right now has too much money and decent quality for me to ignore.
Remember, at this point in the campaign, here are the main issues I'm dealing with on the list (not in order):
1. Overall macro dynamic - Obviously this favors Democrats at this moment, by how much is the question.
2. Overall partisan lean - this is measured as Bush 2000/2004 numbers weighted against the mean. Since there were no "major" third-parties in either of these elections, the numbers are fairly nice clean (unlike 1992 and 1996)). Marginal districts are put higher up on the list for obvious reasons.
3. Open seats - Again, sort of obvious.
4. Scandal-tainted incumbents - On the Rep. side, this encompasses Ney, Pombo, Sherwood and DeLay, would he have run again. On the Dem. side, this encompasses Mollohan.
5. Strength of incumbent - Often measured by long-term (elected in 2002 or earlier) incumbents who underperform the Presidential numbers or the partisan lean of the CD. Examples of this include Cubin on the Rep. side and Boswell on the Dem. side.
6. Strength of challenger - Is he a state senator or restauranteur? Having organization helps, as well as name recognition.
7. Fundraising prowess of challenger - Sort of self-explanatory. With House incumbents typically having major money advantages, being able to fundraise makes you competitive, if the CD is decently marginal or open.
The one big thing I've left off the list, because we don't know it yet in most cases, is how the challenger appears on TV. This goes into strength of challnger and can often turn a competitive race into a non-competitive one and vice versa.
