Day 141: Russia

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/rs.html

Discuss.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

[WMS]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

That's not necesarily a bad thing.

[© tweed]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

Well elections are held fairly, which is the criteria for a democracy, but the constitution is routinely ignored and other freedoms abriged consistently and corporatism prevalent.  (Sort of like PRI Mexico)

[WMS]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

Well elections are held fairly, which is the criteria for a democracy, but the constitution is routinely ignored and other freedoms abriged consistently and corporatism prevalent.  (Sort of like PRI Mexico)

I'm not even sure about the fair election part from the 2005 Freedom House report:
"Russia's political rights rating declined from 5 to 6, and its status from Partly Free to Not Free, due to the virtual elimination of influential political opposition parties within the country and the further concentration of executive power.

Political Rights and Civil Liberties
Russians cannot change their government democratically, particularly in light of the state's far-reaching control of broadcast media and the growing harassment of opposition parties and their financial backers. In the parliamentary elections of December 2003, more than two-thirds of seats in the Duma were won by the Kremlin's Unity Party, while most of the remaining seats were captured by parties promoted by the Kremlin-controlled media. There was significant evidence that there had been an undercount in the vote for liberal opposition parties that kept them from attaining the 5 percent threshold required for parliamentary representation. The leader of the third largest legislative party, Motherland (Rodina), backed President Vladimir Putin in the March 2004 presidential race. The Liberal Democratic Party, the fourth largest group in the Duma, is an ultranationalist faction known for the long-standing ties of its leaders to intelligence circles. The Communists are the sole party in the legislature generally free of Kremlin influence. In the presidential election of March 2004, state dominance of the media was in full display, debate was absent, and Putin won a first-round victory with 71.4 percent of the vote, more than five times that of his closest rival.

The 1993 constitution established a strong presidency with the power to appoint, pending parliamentary confirmation, and dismiss the prime minister. The bicameral legislature consists of a lower chamber (the Duma) and an upper chamber (the Federation Council). The power of the president is likely to be strengthened in the coming months, when the president gains control over the appointment of regional governors, who until now have been elected officials."

[ag]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

Too big a topic, in every sense of the word. I'd need more specific questions to answer - otherwise, I'd have write something the length of the "War and Peace". So, if you have any questions about Russia that you were afraid to ask, please, be my guest.

[MHS2002]

Has anyone here read the book "Kremlin Rising?" It's by a couple of Washington Post writers that details Russia's move toward a more authoritarian state under Putin.

[© tweed]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

Well elections are held fairly, which is the criteria for a democracy, but the constitution is routinely ignored and other freedoms abriged consistently and corporatism prevalent.  (Sort of like PRI Mexico)

I'm not even sure about the fair election part

From Wikipedia:

Nevertheless, the election campaign and the actual balloting were both declared "free and fair" by an international observation mission run by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

Too big a topic, in every sense of the word. I'd need more specific questions to answer - otherwise, I'd have write something the length of the "War and Peace". So, if you have any questions about Russia that you were afraid to ask, please, be my guest.

I'm wondering what you think Putin will do after 2008 and if you mhe might return to office later. Also do you think it's possible Russia will ever end up like Belarus, where the elections aren't just unfair, they're so blatantly fixed the mean nothing? And how likely is a possible Belarus/Russia unification too?

[??????????]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

Too big a topic, in every sense of the word. I'd need more specific questions to answer - otherwise, I'd have write something the length of the "War and Peace". So, if you have any questions about Russia that you were afraid to ask, please, be my guest.

Why do the Russian people appear to like being oppressed? And I mean that in all seriousness. Why have the Russians refused to stand up and fight for freedom?

[Jacobtm]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

Too big a topic, in every sense of the word. I'd need more specific questions to answer - otherwise, I'd have write something the length of the "War and Peace". So, if you have any questions about Russia that you were afraid to ask, please, be my guest.

Why do the Russian people appear to like being oppressed? And I mean that in all seriousness. Why have the Russians refused to stand up and fight for freedom?

I've got this book from the '60's about the USSR and Russian history that's just a compilation of original sources. Lots of the ones about Russia before the USSR just focus on how miserable and resigned the Russian character is. They go into detail about how no soldiers can die like Russian soldiers, because their whole life they've just been waiting to die. They don't call for their wives or mothers, they just stoically accept death. It seems that attitude has stuck around.

[??????????]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

Too big a topic, in every sense of the word. I'd need more specific questions to answer - otherwise, I'd have write something the length of the "War and Peace". So, if you have any questions about Russia that you were afraid to ask, please, be my guest.

Why do the Russian people appear to like being oppressed? And I mean that in all seriousness. Why have the Russians refused to stand up and fight for freedom?

I've got this book from the '60's about the USSR and Russian history that's just a compilation of original sources. Lots of the ones about Russia before the USSR just focus on how miserable and resigned the Russian character is. They go into detail about how no soldiers can die like Russian soldiers, because their whole life they've just been waiting to die. They don't call for their wives or mothers, they just stoically accept death. It seems that attitude has stuck around.

Thats' sad. Really, I find that to be awful.

[ag]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

Too big a topic, in every sense of the word. I'd need more specific questions to answer - otherwise, I'd have write something the length of the "War and Peace". So, if you have any questions about Russia that you were afraid to ask, please, be my guest.

Why do the Russian people appear to like being oppressed? And I mean that in all seriousness. Why have the Russians refused to stand up and fight for freedom?

I've got this book from the '60's about the USSR and Russian history that's just a compilation of original sources. Lots of the ones about Russia before the USSR just focus on how miserable and resigned the Russian character is. They go into detail about how no soldiers can die like Russian soldiers, because their whole life they've just been waiting to die. They don't call for their wives or mothers, they just stoically accept death. It seems that attitude has stuck around.

A lot of bull.

[ag]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

Too big a topic, in every sense of the word. I'd need more specific questions to answer - otherwise, I'd have write something the length of the "War and Peace". So, if you have any questions about Russia that you were afraid to ask, please, be my guest.

I'm wondering what you think Putin will do after 2008 and if you mhe might return to office later. Also do you think it's possible Russia will ever end up like Belarus, where the elections aren't just unfair, they're so blatantly fixed the mean nothing? And how likely is a possible Belarus/Russia unification too?

Ha. Good question.  Will answer it later today - the pundit needs to think.

[ag]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

Too big a topic, in every sense of the word. I'd need more specific questions to answer - otherwise, I'd have write something the length of the "War and Peace". So, if you have any questions about Russia that you were afraid to ask, please, be my guest.

I'm wondering what you think Putin will do after 2008 and if you mhe might return to office later. Also do you think it's possible Russia will ever end up like Belarus, where the elections aren't just unfair, they're so blatantly fixed the mean nothing? And how likely is a possible Belarus/Russia unification too?

The funny thing, a friend of mine has just been on a Russian radio discussing your first question just a few days ago with one of the government's top PR man. Both concluded that Putin's second term would be undesirable, but my friend claimed it will likely happen, while the other guy claimed it is unlikely. Let me try my hand at this punditry as well.

I believe it is most likely Putin will not formally run himself, but try to put in a dependent guy to keep the seat warm trhough 2012 when he can run again. It's absolutely a different matter, if he succedes - this is always a dangerous strategy, given that your technical replacement might want the power for himself. The likeliest "heir" at this point is one Medvedev (at present he is a deputy PM, was chief of staff before), but he is not 100% safe, as far as Putin is concerned. The second most powerful guy in the country is the Defense Minister Ivanov, who also happens to be Putin's old KGB buddy. But, though they are close friends, Putin is, probably, too smart to risk Ivanov taking the Presidency - Ivanov is no "seat warmer".

As for your second question, the difference between Russia and Belarus right now is simply that Putin is smarter than Lukashenka, so he does not cheat more than he has to to keep control. Putin is OK w/ his party taking 40% of the vote, as long as it takes 70% of the seats in a legislature - and this is what has been happening at all levels for a few years now.  If any party threatens to deny the "Unity" a 2/3 majority in seats in some local elections, it is simply not allowed to run on a technicality (since, most of the time, the threat comes from the hard-core nationalists, this is usually done on the noble pretext of "confronting extremism", so few others really object). A combination of oil-price induced government generosity, nationalist retoric, marginalization of opposition and effective government control of all political TV broadcasts is very efficient - the chances of opposition winning an election in Russia and in Belarus are about the same: nil. Just to make things sure, gobernatorial elections have been abolished, the upper house is all-appointed (by now, for all practical purposes, by the president himself), if local legislatures try to resist approving presidential "nominations" their leaders go to prison on corruption charges (in Russia you can put any politician to jail for corruption without having to invent too much - the system only runs because of corruption, so everybody other than, possibly, some cleaning ladies are jailable).

Russian-Belorussian unification is going to be "on the agenda" for many years to come, without actually happening. Both sides need it kept alive for political reasons (it is generally popular in both countries - though, in practice, both populations would, probably, suffer if it came to pass), but in both countries the political elites have more to lose than to gain from it. On the other hand, making opposition look "opponents of integration" is another effective way of marginalizing them, both for Putin and for Lukashenka. In fact, the two presidents whole-heartedly despise each other, so it is hard to see how one would agree to subordinate himself to another.

[WMS]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

Well elections are held fairly, which is the criteria for a democracy, but the constitution is routinely ignored and other freedoms abriged consistently and corporatism prevalent.  (Sort of like PRI Mexico)

I'm not even sure about the fair election part

From Wikipedia:

Nevertheless, the election campaign and the actual balloting were both declared "free and fair" by an international observation mission run by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

I prefer my source tyvm

And upon reading ag's piece I think I win.

[© tweed]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

Well elections are held fairly, which is the criteria for a democracy, but the constitution is routinely ignored and other freedoms abriged consistently and corporatism prevalent.  (Sort of like PRI Mexico)

I'm not even sure about the fair election part

From Wikipedia:

Nevertheless, the election campaign and the actual balloting were both declared "free and fair" by an international observation mission run by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

I prefer my source tyvm

And upon reading ag's piece I think I win.

You don't think that Putin legitimately won?  I don't think voting is rigged, I just think the system is tilted to aid the person/party in power.

[WMS]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

Well elections are held fairly, which is the criteria for a democracy, but the constitution is routinely ignored and other freedoms abriged consistently and corporatism prevalent.  (Sort of like PRI Mexico)

I'm not even sure about the fair election part

From Wikipedia:

Nevertheless, the election campaign and the actual balloting were both declared "free and fair" by an international observation mission run by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

I prefer my source tyvm

And upon reading ag's piece I think I win.

You don't think that Putin legitimately won?  I don't think voting is rigged, I just think the system is tilted to aid the person/party in power.

Putin may, in fact, have won a free and fair vote...if one had been held. As ag has said before, the same can be said for Lukashenka in Belarus, but that wasn't a free and fair election either.

Ag's third paragraph pretty much answers your second sentence.

[ag]

I'll just say that I really hope ag replies to this one.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Not a democracy any more, not even a rough one...

Well elections are held fairly, which is the criteria for a democracy, but the constitution is routinely ignored and other freedoms abriged consistently and corporatism prevalent.  (Sort of like PRI Mexico)

I'm not even sure about the fair election part

From Wikipedia:

Nevertheless, the election campaign and the actual balloting were both declared "free and fair" by an international observation mission run by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.

I prefer my source tyvm

And upon reading ag's piece I think I win.

You don't think that Putin legitimately won?  I don't think voting is rigged, I just think the system is tilted to aid the person/party in power.

The "actual balloting" was ok - they may have done a bit of minor hanky-panky to make sure there wasn't a second round and that the turnout wouldn't look embarassing, but this was within the "generally accepted levels of cheating". The problem was, there wasn't really any opposition seriously running, since everybody knew their case was hopeless, at best, and personally dangerous, at worst. Hey, everything was so clear ex ante that one of the party leaders actually chose to nominate his body guard for presidency, rather than run himself. Most of the Russians I know actually didn't even bother to vote - I wouldn't be surprised if their ballots were indeed "cast" by somebody else, but this is relatively minor. The right question is not whether Putin obtained whatever votes he officially obtained - it is whether he could have possibly lost. And the answer to that question is "no".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the state of any religious/ethnic minorities in Russia [west of the Urals] these days?

[ag]

What's the state of any religious/ethnic minorities in Russia [west of the Urals] these days?

What exactly interests you?  There are a few dosen major groups, and more minor groupings, and all of them have their own fates.  In general, Russia is xenophobic, if that's what you have in mind, so visible minorities in Moscow and other ethnically Russian area  are not doing well. Just today I've read in the news about a study that people of visibly "Caucasian" (which in Russia means those from the Caucasus) are randomly stopped by the police at 21 times the rate of "Slavic whites" (in the study only 3% of the stops resulted in uncovering anything, almost invariably the "irregularity" was the lack of Moscow residence permit).

East or West of the Urals is not an important distinction in this respect, by the way. Most ethnic minorities live predominantly in European Russia, and ethnic Russians form a majority in nearly all of Siberia.  The only "Asian" area where Russians are but a small minority is Tuva, which wasn't even part of Russia until 1943.

I guess, what I should do is make a few "case studies" on different minorities as illustrations - I will try, if I have time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What exactly interests you?

I'm a bit worried by some of the reports that (occasionally) turn up in the press over here. That, and I've always had an interest in minority groups (comes from being a bit of everything myself I think).

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Not good... has that been getting worse recently?

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Interesting; didn't know that.

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Thanks

[ag]

I'm a bit worried by some of the reports that (occasionally) turn up in the press over here. That, and I've always had an interest in minority groups (comes from being a bit of everything myself I think).

Well, you a right to be worried.

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Yes, for quite some time actually.

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Most inhabitable areas East of the Urals are overwhelmingly Russian, and most majority-native areas are nearly uninhabitable because of the climate.  There are only 3 "native Siberian" groups that have over 100 thousand members (the Yakut, the Buryat and the Tuvin) and none of them have even a million. In contrast, there are over 6 mln. Tatars in Russia, and a vast majority of them lives in European Russia.

[ag]

Here is the list of the largest ethnic minorities in Russia, as per the 2002 census (in the census Russians ask people to declare their "ethnicity" - "nacional'nost'" in Russian). Out of some 145 mln. people counted in the census, nearly 116 mln. declared themselves ethnically Russian (of which 140 thousand claimed to be cossack) and another 1.5 mln. refused to declare anything. Here is the list of the largest other groups, with a brief description: area where they mainly live/come from, language group, dominant religion, etc.  Choose which one do you want to learn more about.

1. Tatars - 5.55 mln. All over Russia but mostly along the Volga. Roughly half in the autonomous Republic of Tatarstan. Turkic, Sunni Muslim (except for the 27 thousand Kryashenlar - literally, "Christians" in Tatar).

2. Ukrainians - 2.94 mln. in Russia, all over the country. Eastern Slavic, mostly Orthodox Christian (in Russia, overwhelmingly so), since the Soviet break-up a "foreign" minority.

3. Bashkirs - 1.67 mln, between the Volga, the Urals and the Kazakh border. Similar to Tatar (Turkic, Sunni Muslim), but nomadic until the 20th century. "Title ethnicity" in the autonomous Republic of Bashkortostan.

4. Chavash - 1.64 mln, along the Volga. Distantly related to other Turks (the language is Turkic, but very distinct), Christian Orthodox, "title ethnicity" in the Chavash Republic

5. Chechens - 1.36 mln, in the Northern Caucasus and across the country. North-Central Caucasian (Nakhi) language, Sunni Muslim, autonomous "Chechen Republic" (I don't think I have to remind you what it is).

6. Armenians - 1.13 mln. in Russia. Given the state of affairs in Armenia and the expulsion of Armenians from Azerbaijan Russia has become a major destination. Christian "Gregorian" (Monophysite).

7. Mordvins - 843 thousand, along the Volga, "title ethnicity" in the autonomou Republic of Mordovia in the Volga area. Finnic language, Christian Orthodox and Animist.

8. Avars - 814 thousand. Actually an amalgamation of closely related groups in the Dagestan area of the North Caucasus, the largest ethnic group in the multi-ethnic Republic of Dagestan. Northeast-Caucasian language, Sunni Muslim.

9. Belarusians - 808 thousand in Russia. See Ukrainians for an identical description.

10. Kazakh - 654 thousand in Russia. Likewise, a "foreign" group since the Soviet break-up. Turkic, Sunni Muslim, similar to and neighbors of the Bashkirs.

11. Udmurt - 637 thousand in the Volga-Urals area. "Title ethnicity" in the Republic of Udmurtia, Finnic language, Christian Orthodox and animist religion.

12. Azeris - 622 thousand in Russia. Another "newly foreign" group. Very closely related to Turks (Azeri and Turkish are mutually understandable), Muslim, but, unlike the Turks they are Shiites, not Sunnis.

13. Maris - 604 thousand. The "title ethnicity" in the Mari-El Republic. Finnic language(s) (there are actually two: the Mountain Mari and the Pasture Mari), Christian Orthodox/ Animist.

14. Germans - 597 thousand in Russia. Despite the exile to Central Asia in WWII and the mass departure for Germany in the 1990s, there are still quite a few of them left in Russia, settlment dates back to the 18th century. Christian Protestants and Catholics.

15. Kabardins - 520 thousand. One of the "title ethnicities" in the Kabarda-Balkar Republic in the North-Caucasus. Northwest-Caucasian (Circassian) language, Sunni Muslim.

16. Osetians - 515 thousand in Russia's North Caucasus, ethnic area spills accross the Caucasus into Georgia. "Title ethnicity" of the Republic of North Osetia - Alania. Indoeuropean (East Iranian) language, mostly Orthodox Christians, at least in Russia, with a Sunni Muslim minority (Muslims live mainly in Georgia).

17. Dargins - 510 thousand. Another of the Dagestani groups, Northeast Caucasian language, Sunni Muslim.

18. Buryats - 445 thousand. The largest native Siberian group. Buryat-Mongol language, Tibetan Buddhist religion, "title ethnicity" in the Republic of Buryatia and the Ust'-Ordynsky and Aginsky Buryat autonomous districts (the two districts are in the process of being incorporated into the neighboring Russian provinces).

19. Yakuts - 444 thousand. Another native Siberian group. Turkic language, Animist and Christian Orthodox religion. "Title ethnicity"  in the gigantic (it covers the area equal to that of the entire Western Europe) Republic of Yakutia - Sakha. One of the few non-Russian ethnic groups in Russia that actually manages to dominate some of the smaller neighbors (many of the Evenki, who abandon their language, switch to Yakut and not to Russian; there is even a Yakut-based Yakut-Russian creole language called Dolgan - this is extremely rare, since Russians tend to completely wipe out the local tongues, not to assimilate them).

20. Kumyks - 422 thousand. Another Dagestani group, but, unlike most of the rest, Kumyks speak a Turkic language. Sunni Muslim.

21. Ingush - 413 thousand. Close cousins of the Chechens, "title ethnicity" in the Republic of Ingushetia. A North-central Caucasian (Nakhi) language, Sunni Muslim.

22. Lezgis - 412 thousand in Russia, ethnic area spills accross the border into Azerbaijan. Another Dagestani Northeast Caucasian Sunni (and partially Shiite) Muslim group.

23 Komi-Zyriane 293 thousand in Russia. Finnic language, Animist and Christian Orthodox Religion, in the Northern Urals (on the European side of the range). "Title ethnicity" in the Komi Republic.

24. Tuvins 243 thousand. The "original Turks" (or, at least, the Turks who live in the original Turkish homeland in the Southern Siberia, just North of Mongolia). Turkic language, Tibetan Buddhist religion. Until 1943 this was an independent, though Soviet-dominated" state (they even declared war on Germany in 1941). Russians never formed even a third of the population there, and post-1991 most of them fled, leaving a largely ethnic Tuvin, if struggling and lawless and still not independent, Republic of Tuva (after the brief period in the 1990s the calls for independence seem to have subsided).

25. (European/Ashkenazic) Jews - 230 thousand still in Russia. Bizarrely, there is even a Jewish Autonomous Region in Southeastern Siberia, on the Chinese border, though few Jews live there. Almost all Jews in Russia speak Russian these days, Yiddish being on its deathbed. Obviously, religiously mostly Jewish.

There are another 17 groups that recorded between 90 thousand and 200 thousand members in the 2002 census, and numerous still smaller ones.