USA Today: Dems. Favored in fall elections

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Poll favors Democrats in fall elections
Updated 6/27/2006 5:22 PM ET E-mail | Save | Print | Reprints & Permissions | Subscribe to stories like this   
 
 

By Susan Page, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Americans are paying unusually close attention to the congressional elections in November, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and they are more inclined to deliver big gains to Democrats than in any year since Republicans swept to control of the House and Senate in 1994.
The survey, taken Friday through Sunday, indicates that voters are more concerned about national issues than local ones — a situation that favors Democrats hoping to tap discontent over the Iraq war and gas prices — and prefer Democrats over Republicans on handling every major issue except terrorism.

President Bush looms as a significant drag: 39% of those surveyed say they are less likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush. Just 21% say they would be more likely.

"At this point, it certainly looks like a significant tilt to the Democrats, but it's still quite early," says James Campbell, a political scientist at the University of Buffalo and author of The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections.

Democrats including House leader Nancy Pelosi of California express optimism about winning the 15 seats needed to take control. They are hampered, though, by the limited number of competitive districts across the country.

"Things are difficult, and there's a reasonable chance we'll lose some seats in both bodies," says Republican pollster David Winston, a former adviser to House Republicans. "But at the moment the majorities look reasonably solid because Democrats haven't put into play the sort of seats they need to."

The telephone poll of 1,000 adults has an error margin of +/- 3 percentage points.

Among the findings:

• Voters are interested in the election at levels not usually seen in non-presidential years. More than a third have thought "quite a lot" about the congressional elections. Seven of 10 say they are very motivated to get out and vote this year.

• Democrats are particularly engaged: 56% of Democrats say they are "more enthusiastic about voting than usual," the highest level of enthusiasm since the question was first asked in 1994. In comparison, 43% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic than usual.

• Americans are increasingly likely to identify themselves as Democrats. Including those who "lean" to one party or the other, 55% call themselves Democrats, 38% Republicans — the biggest edge for Democrats since 1998. By 54%-38%, those surveyed say they'd vote for the Democratic congressional candidate over the Republican one in their district if the election was held today.

• That said, voters aren't particularly enamored of Democratic officeholders. Congressional Democrats have an approval rating of just 38%, one percentage point above Bush and five above congressional Republicans. A 54% majority of those polled say they would like to see a third major political party.

• Democrats are preferred by double digits over Republicans to handle four of the five top issues: Iraq, government corruption, the economy and health care. Republicans are preferred by 11 percentage points on handling terrorism.

• By 50% to 39%, those surveyed say most members of Congress don't deserve re-election. When it comes to their own representative, however, 61% say he or she does deserve re-election. That disparity isn't unusual, and it doesn't provide any guarantees for incumbents. In the summer of 1994, for instance, 60% said their own representative deserved re-election. That percentage had dropped to 53% by the November elections that swept many Democrats out of office.

Posted 6/27/2006 5:12 PM ET 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Including those who "lean" to one party or the other, 55% call themselves Democrats, 38% Republicans

Holy crap!


Of course some Democrats will manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Eraserhead]

I agree.

[agcatter]

Not even a survey of registered voters, let alone likely voters.   1000 "adults"??  Come on.  Anyone who knows anything about polling knows that a poll of "adults" is meaningless.  This is including the 30% of their "sample" who aren't even registered - a group that always skews heavily Democratic because it includes a disproportionate number of minorities.

Come up with a poll of registered voters and I'll start looking at it.  Stuff like this is setting USA and the other MSM outlets up for another disappointment.  You know, like the one in 02 and 04.  Any poll of "adults" would have had Kerry leading Bush the night before the elections.

Meaningless.

Republicans have a tough fight on their hands no doubt.  I expect them to lose 5 - 7 in the House and 2 or 3 in the Senate.  However, talk of a Democratic landslide right now is just that - talk and wishful thinking by the lefties in the media.  They might want to wait a little while before beginning their party.

[jokerman]

Unless the Democrats get their act together and form some kind of national, unified message (ala Contract with America) they are not going to take back Congress this November.

[Frodo]

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Interesting... 

[Alcon]

Adults
Gallup
Summer poll

No.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I have to say no.
Although I think the Dems. will come back somewhat in Congress, the poll is too general--"adults."

[Nym90]

I agree that Democrats have an excellent chance of taking at least one branch of Congress this fall, but it's still pretty early.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, I don´t want to be pessimistic but I stay realistic and say: This is a national poll and the Congress is made up by individual races. Most of them are tossups and can go either way. This year the Dems can hope to be level with the Reps but there is really a lot to do first. Hoping the other party makes mistakes and is to blame for everything won´t work out this time, because you shouldn´t underestimate the enemy

[WMS]

A 54% majority of those polled say they would like to see a third major political party.

Interesting, flawed though this poll may be...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Adults
Gallup
Summer poll

No.

The 54%-38% Democratic Congressional lead is appearantly among registered voters.

[Virginian87]

Unless the Democrats get their act together and form some kind of national, unified message (ala Contract with America) they are not going to take back Congress this November.

^^^^^^
I agree.  There's too much conflict between the hardcore liberals and the moderates.  But if we could run a kind of national outsider campaign (such as "stop the Republican corruption of Washington"), we could pull it off.  Remember, Newt Gingrich pulled that same strategy with the Contract of America by reminding voters of Democratic scandals in the House during the late '80s and early '90s.  He narrowed the election to two words: "Had Enough?"

I'd love to win back control of Congress, but I hope that if we win Nancy Pelosi does not become Speaker of the House.  That would be utterly disastrous.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Unless the Democrats get their act together and form some kind of national, unified message (ala Contract with America) they are not going to take back Congress this November.

^^^^^^
I agree.  There's too much conflict between the hardcore liberals and the moderates.  But if we could run a kind of national outsider campaign (such as "stop the Republican corruption of Washington"), we could pull it off.  Remember, Newt Gingrich pulled that same strategy with the Contract of America by reminding voters of Democratic scandals in the House during the late '80s and early '90s.  He narrowed the election to two words: "Had Enough?"

I'd love to win back control of Congress, but I hope that if we win Nancy Pelosi does not become Speaker of the House.  That would be utterly disastrous.

Oh, please stop with the stupid Pelosi bashing. Yeah, it would be utterly disastrous if the America destroyers lost the House.

[bullmoose88]

Unless the Democrats get their act together and form some kind of national, unified message (ala Contract with America) they are not going to take back Congress this November.

That might not be a bad thing for you guys. There won't be a democratic scapegoat for 2008, and you'll still have your anti-republican momentum.

[Virginian87]

Oh, please stop with the stupid Pelosi bashing. Yeah, it would be utterly disastrous if the America destroyers lost the House.

I don't want some idiotic left-wing feminist holding the highest seat in the House. 

If (and this is a big IF) we do the gain control of the House and the House party leadership has a brain, they would put someone like Steny Hoyer in charge.  If Pelosi became Speaker, I guarantee we would lose the House in the 2008 elections.  Nobody wants an extremist from San Francisco in charge.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Oh, please stop with the stupid Pelosi bashing. Yeah, it would be utterly disastrous if the America destroyers lost the House.

I don't want some idiotic left-wing feminist holding the highest seat in the House. 

If (and this is a big IF) we do the gain control of the House and the House party leadership has a brain, they would put someone like Steny Hoyer in charge.  If Pelosi became Speaker, I guarantee we would lose the House in the 2008 elections.  Nobody wants an extremist from San Francisco in charge.

I can't stand Nancy Pelosi!  Does she ever stop smiling?  She always has that fake 90-yr-old w/ botox gone wrong smile after every rebuttal to the State of the Union Address.

[Akno21]

These polls don't mean squat. What matters are winning individual seats. As Al likes to point out, all politics are local. A poll like this doesn't tell us much of anything when assessing single races. These midterms are a collection of individual races, we need to remember that.

[jokerman]

These polls don't mean squat. What matters are winning individual seats.

Good Job!

Right, but what these polls do show are the collective national feelings regarding each party, and I think at the end of the day, when we look at neck and neck races, that were most certainly decided by the last minute reflections at the ballot box, this overall sentiment can make a difference.

[Downwinder]

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Bullsh**