CT Senate predictions

[adam]

and it will be great day!

That it will. How much do you want to bet that Lamont supports will whine about voter disenfranchisment and malfunctioning ballots  when Lieberman wins the primary with over 60%? My friend in Connecticut said that civil rights groups and things of that nature were already planning to protest against a Lieberman victory if he wins.

[nclib]

Lieberman / Yes / Lieberman

[© tweed]

Lieberman / Yes / Lieberman

Why?  I'd have figured you support Lamont.

[Jake]

Why?  I'd have figured you support Lamont.

Supporting Lamont doesn't mean you have to be foolish and actually think he can win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lieberman / Yes / Lieberman

Why?  I'd have figured you support Lamont.

Aren't you the one Casey supporter who thinks Santorum will win?

[© tweed]

Why?  I'd have figured you support Lamont.

Supporting Lamont doesn't mean you have to be foolish and actually think he can win.

Dammit, I misread the question.  Scratch that.

[Eraserhead]

Why?  I'd have figured you support Lamont.

Supporting Lamont doesn't mean you have to be foolish and actually think he can win.

I can't wait to come on here if Lamont wins. I'm not saying he will but he has a great shot. It will be close.

[jman724]

Lets say that lieberman loses the primary and doesn't have enough signatures to get on the ballot as an idependent since those signatures are due the next day.  How successful do you think a write-in campaign would be for lieberman?   I'm betting he could walk away with 35-45% and win the election.  I know a write-in campaign has only won a single U.S. Senate race, but this is a special circumstance. 

[Soaring Eagle]

Lets say that lieberman loses the primary and doesn't have enough signatures to get on the ballot as an idependent since those signatures are due the next day.  How successful do you think a write-in campaign would be for lieberman?   I'm betting he could walk away with 35-45% and win the election.  I know a write-in campaign has only won a single U.S. Senate race, but this is a special circumstance. 

He wouldn't win a write-in campaign, but it would make the race significantly closer. Lamont would still win, though.

[Eraserhead]

Lets say that lieberman loses the primary and doesn't have enough signatures to get on the ballot as an idependent since those signatures are due the next day.  How successful do you think a write-in campaign would be for lieberman?   I'm betting he could walk away with 35-45% and win the election.  I know a write-in campaign has only won a single U.S. Senate race, but this is a special circumstance. 

Lieberman would not win a write-in campaign... unless maybe the Republicans took their candidate out of the race entirely and effectively endorsed Lieberman. Otherwise I have little doubt Lamont would win that.

[HardRCafé]

I know a write-in campaign has only won a single U.S. Senate race, but this is a special circumstance. 

Yes, when was the last time a popular incumbent ran in the general after losing his primary?

Bob Smith was in no way, shape, or form a popular incumbent.

[HardRCafé]

No, there was just talk of a write-in campaign to cost Sununu the election.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If you go to the Senate results, Bob Smith had 0.54% as a write-in. Sounds like he didn't try very hard.

[HardRCafé]

I only got it out of the way so no one would waste time with it as an answer.  So much for that.

[Sam Spade]

I placed Lamont's chances at winning the primary at 30%-35% earlier and now I'm up to 35%-40%.  Simple fact is that he's telegenic, has tons of money to spend, an angry Democratic base and Lieberman's campaign so far has been pathetic.

Problem is that if Lieberman loses, he will most likely run as an independent and beat Lamont, as his support plus strong Republican support will likely trump the leftists.

However, there are some big-time misconceptions that are going on here that are just wrong.  Connecticut is not that left-wing of a state, especially not on economic issues (social issues, it's becoming more and more so, though less than Vermont and New York).  Second, Lieberman only has to get 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot as an Indy, not 30,000+.

Relevant election statute is here:

http://www.cga.ct.gov/2005/pub/Chap153.htm

Key part:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obviously category 1 is a larger number than category 2, and the lesser applies, so the 7,500 figure applies to a nominating petition.

[adam]

Second, Lieberman only has to get 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot as an Indy, not 30,000+.

Very true, I didn't think the requirment was so high. What a lot of people fail to realize about Lieberman in the independent scenario is that he wouldn't be just any old independent candidate. Unlike the average independent candidate Lieberman has an entire brand of Democrat on his side that will be behind him until the end. I would give him 2 days to collect the signatures he needs to make the ballot.

[Sam Spade]

Second, Lieberman only has to get 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot as an Indy, not 30,000+.

Very true, I didn't think the requirment was so high. What a lot of people fail to realize about Lieberman in the independent scenario is that he wouldn't be just any old independent candidate. Unlike the average independent candidate Lieberman has an entire brand of Democrat on his side that will be behind him until the end. I would give him 2 days to collect the signatures he needs to make the ballot.

Well, he has to turn them in on August 9, one day after the primaries, so he doesn't really have two days to plan. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Second, Lieberman only has to get 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot as an Indy, not 30,000+.

Very true, I didn't think the requirment was so high. What a lot of people fail to realize about Lieberman in the independent scenario is that he wouldn't be just any old independent candidate. Unlike the average independent candidate Lieberman has an entire brand of Democrat on his side that will be behind him until the end. I would give him 2 days to collect the signatures he needs to make the ballot.

If the DSCC helps him run as an Independent, all hell will break loose.

[ATFFL]

Second, Lieberman only has to get 7,500 signatures to be on the ballot as an Indy, not 30,000+.

Very true, I didn't think the requirment was so high. What a lot of people fail to realize about Lieberman in the independent scenario is that he wouldn't be just any old independent candidate. Unlike the average independent candidate Lieberman has an entire brand of Democrat on his side that will be behind him until the end. I would give him 2 days to collect the signatures he needs to make the ballot.

If the DSCC helps him run as an Independent, all hell will break loose.

This could be the best scenario for the Republicans nationally.

[Rob]

Lamont/Yes/Lieberman.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I want someone to explain why Lamont's chances are much less than Toomey's.

Toomey probably would've won had it not have been for the electability issue, the fear that he would lose the general. That's not an issue here since there's no way the Republicans can win this seat.

[Sam Spade]

I want someone to explain why Lamont's chances are much less than Toomey's.

Toomey probably would've won had it not have been for the electability issue, the fear that he would lose the general. That's not an issue here since there's no way the Republicans can win this seat.

I think it is very fair to say that if it is Lamont vs. Generic Republican that Lamont would probably win the race and definitely would stand a much better chance than Toomey.  Considering the Republican candidate is a nothing, Lamont's chance of winning one-on-one is high.

However, the big difference here is the simple likelihood that Lieberman runs as an Indy in the general election if he loses the primary.  In that scenario, Lamont will find it extremely difficult, if not impossible to win.

That's the reason why the smartest Democratic member of the Senate, Chuck Schumer, is saying that he would support Lieberman were he to run as an Indy.  He knows that Lieberman would win in that case and wants Lieberman to stay in the Democratic caucus past 2006 elections.

[Downwinder]

I'd also love to see Lamont/no/Lamont, but I sadly vote for Lieberman/yes/Lieberman.  I think the primary may be close, but he'll pull it out.  If Lieberman does lose the primary, I don't think he'd have time to gain ballot access, and would only have limited success as running as a write-in.

If Lieberman does lose the primary, but goes on to win the general as an indy, I personally have serious doubts as to who he would caucus with.  From my point of view, his loyalty to the democrats would finally end at a primary loss, and he may caucus with the republicans just to spite everyone who didn't agree that his seat wasn't granted to him by some kind of divine power.  If he doesn't accept the outcome of the primary, all bets are off, whether Schumer and the DSCC help him as an indy or not.

Yes, I think he's that much of a slimebag.  He was also a horrible, horrible VP pick for Gore.

[Eraserhead]

I really have a feeling most of you are in for a big suprise in this race. I could very well be wrong but we shall see. Also note that Lamont is closing the gap in the general big time according to Rasmussen at least.

[jman724]

I'm thinking if lieberman did end up running as an independent, he would still caucus with the dems so it wouldn't change much of anything.  i know a lot of people make him out to be a very conservative democrat and not loyal to the party, but the truth is he votes democrat on a vast majority of bills, and doeesn't cozy up to republicans much at all.  only on occassion does he break with the party.