DeVos' track in the polls

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I am very curious as to what people think, especially after the recent poll that put DeVos ahead 48-40 percent (54-46 if you split the Undecideds evenly).

[MaC]

lots of time until November.  Hopefully the lead will keep him up, but a lot of these spikes can fall.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

lots of time until November.  Hopefully the lead will keep him up, but a lot of these spikes can fall.

right, but this has been a steady increase for the past few months, not just an all of a sudden spike (although a significantly higher jump than before)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I say that he'll level off in the low 60's--I originally predicted this, and then changed it, but I'll change it back, next time I update my prediction (whenever 3+ states become innacurate).

[Alcon]

I say that he'll level off in the low 60's--I originally predicted this, and then changed it, but I'll change it back, next time I update my prediction (whenever 3+ states become innacurate).

Yikes.  Why?  He goes up a few points over polls and you extrapolate that trend to 60%+?

There's no way that, in the current environment, an incumbent Democrat in Michigan would lose with under 40% of the vote unless she was truly despised.  Simply put, that kind of "trend" never happens.

[MasterJedi]

He'll probably level off where he is now and raise/dip slightly until election time.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I say that he'll level off in the low 60's--I originally predicted this, and then changed it, but I'll change it back, next time I update my prediction (whenever 3+ states become innacurate).

Yikes.  Why?  He goes up a few points over polls and you extrapolate that trend to 60%+?

There's no way that, in the current environment, an incumbent Democrat in Michigan would lose with under 40% of the vote unless she was truly despised.  Simply put, that kind of "trend" never happens.

No, I'm not changing b/c of the poll--I'm seeing that I shouldn't have doubted my instincts earlier, and am going back just b/c I see how unpopular she really is.
Look @ these stats from the poll:
If the election for governor were held today, Detroiters who were surveyed said they would vote for: 59% Granholm 29% DeVos

If the election for governor were held today, Wayne County residents, excluding Detroit, who were surveyed said they would vote for: 38% Granholm 51% DeVos

compared to 2002:

Granholm: 67.81%
Posthumus: 31.05%

Granholm is not as poopular in DETROIT as she was in 2002--liberal, African American, DEMOCRATIC, Detroit--and she's only got 58%!  How can you not see the trend?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Good poll question.  I go for leveling off in the mid 40s.  Folks don't know him yet past those nice ads on TV.  And, I admit, they are nice ads.  I however, have started to recieve literature against him that will likely be damaging as things go foward.

And yes, the first literature I recieved was reminding people about his failed school vouture proposal.  This attempts to paint him as extreme right, and one who fights for losing issues.

Another spoke of his expansion into China.  This will really hurt him when he starts talking about bringing jobs to Michigan.

Go to the website www.whatyoudontknowaboutdick.com to see where things are headed.

If you recall, his 2000 school voucher proposal was flying high in the polls with his well funded and very nice ads on TV.  A few weeks before election day, a poorly funded ad campaign (which I contributed to) blasted his efforts.  It failed in all counties.

The Governor doesn't really have a lot of negative things going againt her (now there is a statement to get some folks wound up).  Lack of performance is about it, but proove it.  Are the state's issues her fault - proove it.  I'm not being partisian here, just realistic.  Other than a veto of the single business tax, there is nothing to go on.  The SBT veto is an easy one for her.  All she has to do is say that eliminating it will shift the tax burdon over to average Joe or hurt our schools, or run the state into more debt.   I support elliminating the single business tax, and so does she.  The problem is that revenue has to come from somewhere unless one likes even more debt.  The Republican proposal did not address this - it just got rid of it. 

Other problems are his connections to social consevativism, but the electorate is probably already alligned with their candidates on these issues. 

You have a point about the SBT veto, but most people don't see it as they have to pay if she didn't veto it.  They see it as hurting small business.

Another thing--I see absolutely no connection b/t a failed voucher campaign 6 years ago, and this years election!

What other things has Granholm done:
1)Raised the limit on weight for trucks--causing:
   a)More crashes involving trucks (@ least 2-3 serious ones a day now in Metro-Det.)
   b)Worse roads--we have to pay MORE $$ for lazy workers to sit around doing NOTHING for 6 months and then finish the job in 2 weeks, leaving the road torn up during that 6 months, just to have the road destroyed come next spring from potholes.
2)Taken away the MEAP $$--not that this is necessarily a bad thing, b/c I don't think govt. needs to be paying some $$ for EVERYTHING you do, but a lot of college kids voting will look @ this and decide, "Hey, she cost me $2500--let's vote for DeVos" (which is pretty pathetic if that's all you base your vote on, but trust me, it'll happen).
3)Continued her pro-choice stance--we're the #1 state for Right-to-Life--so that's going to hurt her.

And what good has she done?

That website that you directed me to--run by the MDP--if that gets back to Granholm it could be bad for her.

[polier]

This race is like the 2004 Pres. election: unpopular incumbent, challenger leading in polls, long time to go. DeVos is leading comfortably now, and the only place he can go is down.

[Q]

DeVos' numbers have increased about 8% over the last 2 weeks, so by election day he should be polling at about 120%!

In seriousness, I'd bet that he will even out at about 48%.  Anyone who says he'd get over 55% is unreasonable, and below about 44% seems not all that likely either.

[MasterJedi]

This race is like the 2004 Pres. election: unpopular incumbent, challenger leading in polls, long time to go. DeVos is leading comfortably now, and the only place he can go is down.

He can go up as well but I doubt he'll go much farther unless Granholm eats babies live on TV.

[ATFFL]

The problem with campaign literature is that nobody reads it but the politicla loons.    I.e., us.

[MaC]

This race is like the 2004 Pres. election: unpopular incumbent, challenger leading in polls, long time to go. DeVos is leading comfortably now, and the only place he can go is down.

He can go up as well but I doubt he'll go much farther unless Granholm eats babies live on TV.

I wouldn't put it past her.

[Jake]

I strongly doubt that DeVos gets more than 50% of the vote in November, and I doubt his poll numbers will go that much higher up at all.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

This race is like the 2004 Pres. election: unpopular incumbent, challenger leading in polls, long time to go. DeVos is leading comfortably now, and the only place he can go is down.

2004 P.E. where--in MI?  Bush was NEVER winning in MI, and I never expect a Republican to win Pres. (in the near future anyway).

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

DeVos' numbers have increased about 8% over the last 2 weeks, so by election day he should be polling at about 120%!

In seriousness, I'd bet that he will even out at about 48%.  Anyone who says he'd get over 55% is unreasonable, and below about 44% seems not all that likely either.

OK, I never said that he'd keep increasing 8% each week.  What is the rationale behind him leveling off @ 48%?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

This race is like the 2004 Pres. election: unpopular incumbent, challenger leading in polls, long time to go. DeVos is leading comfortably now, and the only place he can go is down.

He can go up as well but I doubt he'll go much farther unless Granholm eats babies live on TV.

What do you consider much farther?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

The problem with campaign literature is that nobody reads it but the politicla loons.    I.e., us.

Right, but everybody watches TV (and believes it--except us), so whoever wins the debates/has the best ad campaigns wins the election, no matter how much literature they have elsewhere.

[Dave from Michigan]

I'm very suprised DeVos has increased this much in the polls his ad's don't seem that convincing. I don't think they will go much higher.  His high numbers most likely have to do with dicontent with Granholm.  wait for Granholm to start compaigning to see where things really stand.

[Nym90]

I still think that Granholm will win, the campaign hasn't really started yet. It will be close, however.

Devos has had far more positive attention than negative due to his huge spending edge so far; I'd say he's approaching or just about at his ceiling with his current 48 percent poll number.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

As to the Right to Life issue.  The organization itself is very active in MI, however the people tend to be overwealmingly pro-choice.  A recent breakdown of a MI poll by Survey USA, for example shows pro choice outnumbering pro life 56 to 40.  These numbers are usually consistant if you look back in the polls.  Being a pro life Republican candidate in MI will probably not garner you any more votes than your solid base on the religious right.

As far as the MEAP money is concerned,  It was not cut.

I might add though that the $2,500 for the MEAP test pales in comparison to the amount of interest you will pay on student loans.  Beginning July 1st the interest rates are going sky high and grants are getting harder to get.  Some day when you go to pay them back, thank the Republicans in Washington for your financial delema.  It was a straight party line vote and the president said he was "eager to sign it"

I can't help but wonder how young Republicans who will be paying higher interest on lones, while at the same time are willing to work for lower pay to be part of a coservative agenda (according to my poll question in another thread) will feel years from now. 

I meant it is going to be cut (the decisions was already made though).  And when it comes to college kids, they don't go in an look @ all the political aspects (most of the time)--they just vote for the one who didn't take away their $2500.

In reference to the lower pay--I still say that I wouldn't want my pay cut, but if it helps the economy/companies--then cut it (especially the overpaid unions--but we won't debate that here again).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In reference to the lower pay--I still say that I wouldn't want my pay cut, but if it helps the economy/companies--then cut it (especially the overpaid unions--but we won't debate that here again).

Ken Lay thanks you.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

In reference to the lower pay--I still say that I wouldn't want my pay cut, but if it helps the economy/companies--then cut it (especially the overpaid unions--but we won't debate that here again).

Ken Lay thanks you.

who?

[adam]

If they do debates in Michigan, than I think that could be DeVos' main problem. He isn't a very strong speaker when he is on his on the clock and under pressure. I think that both DeVos and Granholm will hover around 49% with 1% going to other candidates. I will go out on a limb and say that DeVos will pull it off by a very slim amount of votes, slim enough for Michigan Democrats to challenge the vote.

[Nym90]

In reference to the lower pay--I still say that I wouldn't want my pay cut, but if it helps the economy/companies--then cut it (especially the overpaid unions--but we won't debate that here again).

Ken Lay thanks you.

who?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Lay