Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[Tender Branson]

Austria's 2 main parties agree on creation of new government

Published: January 8, 2007

VIENNA: Austria's two main parties have agreed on the formation of a new coalition government, the head of Austria's Social Democrats said Monday.

Alfred Gusenbauer, leader of the center-left party and the country's next chancellor, made the announcement at a joint news conference with Wolfgang Schuessel, the outgoing chancellor and head of the centrist People's Party.

The deal comes more than three months after the Social Democrats narrowly topped the polls in national elections.

"We have completed the negotiations for the creation of a new Austrian government," Gusenbauer said.

In the Oct. 1 vote, the Social Democrats won 35.3 percent of the ballot, defeating the People's Party by 1 percentage point.

Both parties met to form a so-called grand coalition after the elections, but the People's Party broke off contacts to protest a decision by the Social Democrats to join with two smaller parties to investigate the government purchase of combat aircraft and to probe Austrian banks for signs of possible wrongdoing.

Talks resumed late November following weeks of deadlock and gained momentum over the weekend following agreement on financial matters late Friday.

"In particular, we want to invest in the future of our country," said the 46-year-old Gusenbauer. He outlined several things the new government wants to achieve, including a new approach to university tuition fees and a reduction of Austria's legal voting age to 16.

Students who "are prepared to contribute to society," by working in institutions such as hospices, will not have to pay tuition fees, Gusenbauer said.

Gusenbauer also said the new government would seek to make Austria more competitive globally and reduce unemployment.

The post of vice chancellor is expected to go to the People's Party, which will also head the key finance, foreign, interior, economy, health, agriculture and science ministries. The Social Democrats will run ministries dealing with defense, education, justice, infrastructure and social affairs.

The new defense minister, as yet unnamed, will have the task of reducing the cost of Austria's current contract for 18 combat jets that caused severe tension between the two parties, the Austria Press Agency reported. At the onset of the negotiations, the Social Democrats wanted to cancel the contract signed under Schuessel's government.

"I hope, it will be successful," Gusenbauer said.

The new government also hopes to make child subsidies more flexible and increase oil taxes.

Peter Filzmaier, one of Austria's most respected political scientists, said on public television that the decisive factor would be whether the new coalition was truly a "common big project" or if it was agreed upon because other options — such as a Social Democratic minority government or the People's Party in opposition — appeared "unattractive or risky."

A swearing-in of the new Cabinet by President Heinz Fischer could happen as early as Thursday.

Other Austrian political parties were skeptical about Monday's decision.

Alexander Van der Bellen, head of the Greens, said in an interview with the Austria Press Agency that the Social Democrats and the People's Party did not recognize the central questions related to Austria's future.

Heinz-Christian Strache, leader of the rightist Freedom Party, said in a statement that Gusenbauer wanted to make it into the "Guinness Book of Records" for breaking the most election promises.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/01/08/europe/EU-POL-Austria-New-Government.php

[Tender Branson]

Alrighty, now we got the Grand-Coalition and it´s already doomed by Austrians after 1 week, particularly the Social Democrats, who nearly broke all of their campaign promises (tuition fees should be abolished and the ordererd jets for the military should be cancelled they said during the campaign) Now it seems both the fees and the jets will stay.

The result: The Centrist ÖVP is seen as the clear winner of the coaltion talks and new polls for possible new elections now say following:

ÖVP - 38%
SPÖ - 32%
Greens - 13%
Far Right (FPÖ, BZÖ) - 15%
Others - 2%

I wouldn´t be surprised by a strong showing of the Left (Greens) and the Far Right in the next elections due to protest voters. Similar to 1999.

[Verily]

That shouldn't be a surprise; it'll be much like Germany, where the Greens, Left and Free Democrats have all gotten significant boosts from being the opposition to the grand coalition. Unfortunately, in Germany at least, that seems to be entrenching the grand coalition; every vote for the Left Party, who refuse to form a coalition with anyone, is a vote against anything other than the grand coalition.

[Colin]

That shouldn't be a surprise; it'll be much like Germany, where the Greens, Left and Free Democrats have all gotten significant boosts from being the opposition to the grand coalition. Unfortunately, in Germany at least, that seems to be entrenching the grand coalition; every vote for the Left Party, who refuse to form a coalition with anyone, is a vote against anything other than the grand coalition.

Well it's much different in Austria. A Grand Coalition in Germany is a very odd and unstable occurance, ebing that it only happened once before and only lasted 3 or 4 years IIRC, whereas in Austria a majority of the governments after 1945 have been grand coalitions so whereas its an odd and unstable occurance in Germany and that is driving up the numbers for the other parties it is very much more a common occurance in Austria. Although I could definitely see some some larger numbers from the Greens just because the Social Democrats seemed to have sold out on their campaign promises in order to ensure a stable coalition.

As for the Left Party their support has stayed mostly static, I haven't seen support rise over 12% in any poll, most of the dissident SDP voters are moving to the Greens and dissident CDU voters are moving to the FDP.

The Left Party also does not say that it would not join in a coalition with anyone else the problem is that no other party wants to be associated with the ex-communists in any way, shape or form, though I do remember some bringing up the possibility of a red-red-green coalition after the last elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the problem is that no other party wants to be associated with the ex-communists in any way, shape or form,

With the exception of the former DDR.

[Colin]

the problem is that no other party wants to be associated with the ex-communists in any way, shape or form,

With the exception of the former DDR.

True but it would definitely hurt the SDP in the West if they were to form a coalition with the Left Party.

[Verily]

That shouldn't be a surprise; it'll be much like Germany, where the Greens, Left and Free Democrats have all gotten significant boosts from being the opposition to the grand coalition. Unfortunately, in Germany at least, that seems to be entrenching the grand coalition; every vote for the Left Party, who refuse to form a coalition with anyone, is a vote against anything other than the grand coalition.

The Left Party also does not say that it would not join in a coalition with anyone else the problem is that no other party wants to be associated with the ex-communists in any way, shape or form, though I do remember some bringing up the possibility of a red-red-green coalition after the last elections.

I am at least 99% sure that the Left Party rejected any talk of a coalition government immediately after the 2005 election. Whether the SPD and Greens would have approached them is a different issue, but they did explicitly say they would refuse any offer of a coalition.

[Colin]

That shouldn't be a surprise; it'll be much like Germany, where the Greens, Left and Free Democrats have all gotten significant boosts from being the opposition to the grand coalition. Unfortunately, in Germany at least, that seems to be entrenching the grand coalition; every vote for the Left Party, who refuse to form a coalition with anyone, is a vote against anything other than the grand coalition.

The Left Party also does not say that it would not join in a coalition with anyone else the problem is that no other party wants to be associated with the ex-communists in any way, shape or form, though I do remember some bringing up the possibility of a red-red-green coalition after the last elections.

I am at least 99% sure that the Left Party rejected any talk of a coalition government immediately after the 2005 election. Whether the SPD and Greens would have approached them is a different issue, but they did explicitly say they would refuse any offer of a coalition.

This is from Wikipedia concerning the 2005 Federal Elections:

"All other established parties had ruled out the possibility of a coalition with the Left Party prior to the election, and refused to reconsider in the light of the closeness of the election result, which prevented either of the usual ideologically-coherent coalitions from attaining a majority. The possibility of a minority SPD-Green government tolerated by the Left Party was the closest the Left Party came to potential participation in government at this election."

At the subnational level Die Linkes Partei has a coalition currently with the SPD in the Berlin government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

the problem is that no other party wants to be associated with the ex-communists in any way, shape or form,

With the exception of the former DDR.

True but it would definitely hurt the SDP in the West if they were to form a coalition with the Left Party.

For now, yes that's true. How long for though?

[Colin]

the problem is that no other party wants to be associated with the ex-communists in any way, shape or form,

With the exception of the former DDR.

True but it would definitely hurt the SDP in the West if they were to form a coalition with the Left Party.

For now, yes that's true. How long for though?

Probably another decade or so, until either the horrors perpetrated by the DDR have been forgotten or been pushed into history or Die Linkes breaks further away from its former ties.

[minionofmidas]

Actually, it probably wouldn't hurt the SPD much, if at all. (It could hurt the Greens somewhat more.) Most of the people who profess to totally hate the GDR and therefore would not vote for the SPD if it governed with the Left, vote for the CDU (which in 1990 annexed a good chunk of the GDR party system...) anyways. And the ties between the current Left and the old SED are pretty tenuous in many ways.

The main reasons why a Red-Red-Green coalition was never really seen as an option in 2005 are:
Schröder hates Lafontaine.
Lafontaine hates Schröder.
Probably most influential SPD and Green politicos were sore at having their votes "stolen", and also feeling unfairly attacked.
Anyone in the Left with any sense of realism knew that, with the party fusion between PDS and WASG not even formalized yet (still isn't, technically), and with such a negative campaign/lack of working positive concepts on their own part, they'd very quickly fall into the trap where they're basically just propping up a government on the same old course, and seen as sellout by their voters. Who would drift back to abstention or the SPD.

[Tender Branson]

Just because í´m bored

The poll numbers of Austrian Parties since the Oct. 2006 election:



Social Dems were riding high until they broke most of their campain promises in January, but seem to experience an up-tick lately.

ÖVP: Mirrors the numbers of the SPÖ

Greens: Seem to do slightly better each time

The Far Right (FPÖ/BZÖ): Seem to do slightly worse than in 10/2006.

Conclusion:

Parties on the Left: 51%
Parties on the Right: 49%

[Tender Branson]

Here´s an early preview of the 6 Austrian state elections in 2008 and 2009.

In 2008, 2 Austrian state elections will take place in:

* Tyrol (where I study)
* Lower Austria

The 2003 election results were:

Tyrol:

ÖVP: 49,9%
SPÖ: 25,9%
Greens: 15,5%
FPÖ: 8,0%
KPÖ: 0,7%

Current opinion polls for the Tyrolian 2008 elections:

ÖVP: 45%
SPÖ: 30%
Greens: 16%
FPÖ: 7%
BZÖ: 2%

Lower Austria:

ÖVP: 53,3%
SPÖ: 33,6%
Greens: 7,2%
FPÖ: 4,5%
KPÖ: 0,8%
Others: 0,7%

Current opinion polls for the Lower Austria 2008 elections:

ÖVP: 53%
SPÖ: 31%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 6%
BZÖ: 1%

In 2009, 4 state elections will take place in:

* Salzburg (my home state)
* Carinthia
* Upper Austria
* Vorarlberg

The 2004 election results were:

Salzburg:

SPÖ: 45,4%
ÖVP: 37,9%
FPÖ: 8,7%
Greens: 8,0%

Current opinion polls for the Salzburg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 49%
ÖVP: 35%
Greens: 8%
FPÖ: 8%

Carinthia:

FPÖ: 42,5%
SPÖ: 38,4%
ÖVP: 11,6%
Greens: 6,7%

Current opinion polls for the Carinthia 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 44%
BZÖ: 24%
ÖVP: 15%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 7%

Upper Austria:

ÖVP: 43,4%
SPÖ: 38,3%
Greens: 9,1%
FPÖ: 8,4%

Current opinion polls for the Upper Austria 2009 elections:

ÖVP: 46%
SPÖ: 34%
Greens: 12%
FPÖ: 7%

Vorarlberg:

ÖVP: 54,9%
SPÖ: 16,9%
FPÖ: 13,0%
Greens: 10,2%

Current opinion polls for the Vorarlberg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 50%
ÖVP: 17%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 6%

[Bono]

No state elections in 2007?

[Tender Branson]

No state elections in 2007?

Nope, in 2007 there are no important elections in Austria. There was speculation that the Governor of Lower Austria could call for earlier elections in the fall of 2007, but he rejected the proposal, saying a full term will be served. Opinion polls show the ruling state ÖVP would win a majority - therefore the speculation.

[Kevinstat]

Vorarlberg:

ÖVP: 54,9%
SPÖ: 16,9%
FPÖ: 13,0%
Greens: 10,2%

Current opinion polls for the Vorarlberg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 50%
ÖVP: 17%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 6%

What has the ÖVP state government done to the people of Voralberg that its support has plummeted so significantly?  My guess is there must have been a major exposing of corruption or other big scandal of some kind.

Also, were any of the state parliamentary elections cited in your post held after Jörg Haider split with the FPÖ and formed the BZÖ?  It would be interesting if the BZÖ was pulling support from the FPÖ after an earlier election which the two parties contested.  I imagine most of the FPÖ members of the Carinthian state parliament elected in the last state election are now BZÖ members, as Haider is still listed as the Governor of Carinthia in Wikipedia.

[minionofmidas]

Vorarlberg:

ÖVP: 54,9%
SPÖ: 16,9%
FPÖ: 13,0%
Greens: 10,2%

Current opinion polls for the Vorarlberg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 50%
ÖVP: 17%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 6%

What has the ÖVP state government done to the people of Voralberg that its support has plummeted so significantly?  My guess is there must have been a major exposing of corruption or other big scandal of some kind.

My guess is that the SPÖ and ÖVP figures in the poll are transposed.

[Tender Branson]

Vorarlberg:

ÖVP: 54,9%
SPÖ: 16,9%
FPÖ: 13,0%
Greens: 10,2%

Current opinion polls for the Vorarlberg 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 50%
ÖVP: 17%
Greens: 14%
FPÖ: 10%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 6%

What has the ÖVP state government done to the people of Voralberg that its support has plummeted so significantly?  My guess is there must have been a major exposing of corruption or other big scandal of some kind.

Also, were any of the state parliamentary elections cited in your post held after Jörg Haider split with the FPÖ and formed the BZÖ?  It would be interesting if the BZÖ was pulling support from the FPÖ after an earlier election which the two parties contested.  I imagine most of the FPÖ members of the Carinthian state parliament elected in the last state election are now BZÖ members, as Haider is still listed as the Governor of Carinthia in Wikipedia.

Sry, i mixed up the numbers for the ÖVP and SPÖ in Vorarlberg It´s the ÖVP at 50% and the SPÖ at 17% ...

For the BZÖ: The BZÖ is about non-existant in states other than Carinthia. They got 1% each in the state elections held in Vienna and Styria in 2005 and they were not on the list in the 2005 Burgenland elections. And yeah, most former FPÖ members in Carinthia are now in the state BZÖ.

But it is very likely that the Social Democrats will win the 2009 elections, because of the FPÖ-BZÖ split and Gabi Schaunig will become the first (woman) governor of the state and we would bave 2 Gabis as governors. The other is the current governor of my state Salzburg, Gabi Burgstaller.

Gabi Schaunig would definitely be better than Jörg Haider.

[Tender Branson]

Carinthia - Results of last election in 2004:

FPÖ: 42,5%
SPÖ: 38,4%
ÖVP: 11,6%
Greens: 6,7%

Current opinion polls for the Carinthia 2009 elections:

SPÖ: 44%
BZÖ: 24%
ÖVP: 15%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 7%

New poll released for Carinthia today:

Haider's BZÖ seems to gain some ground

SPÖ: 37%
BZÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 13%
Greens: 8%
FPÖ: 6%

[Tender Branson]

The final party expenditures for last years parliamentary elections have been released and they spent far more than previously estimated:

ÖVP: 17.3 Mio. € (22.5 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 7 Mio. €)
SPÖ: 14.5 Mio. € (18.9 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 7 Mio. €)
FPÖ: 6.2 Mio. € (8.1 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 5 Mio. €)
Greens: 2.6 Mio. € (3.4 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 4 Mio. €)
BZÖ: 1.8 Mio. € (3.4 Mio. $) - (instead of estimated 5 Mio. €)

Alltogether 43 Mio. € (56 Mio. $) have been spent on the 2006 elections, or 5€ per capita, 7€ per eligible voter, or 9€ per valid vote.

For the fact that Austria just accounts for 1/37 of the US-population, the election costs would have amounted to 2 Bio. $ in the US ...