Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[??????????]

Thanks for the info! Seems pretty good overall.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday it turned out that the castle in which our Secretary of Commerce, Martin Bartenstein from the Conservative ÖVP is living and having his campaign headquarter as well as a company, was a former Sub-Concentration Camp from the Nazis. He said immediately that he didn´t know anything of it. He will "consider" applying a memorial table for the victims there.

For me it´s very strange that someone, whos entirely family lived there didn´t know what was going on in that castle. But i don´t think this will have much impact on the election.

[Umengus]

FPO:276
BZO:130
SPO:54
OVP:-40
KPO:-112
Grune:-146

[Tender Branson]

Here´s my prediction of the outcome on Oct. 1:



Black = ÖVP (Conservative) win
Red = SPÖ (Social Democrats) win

A look back at the 2002 results:

State                                                             ÖVP                    SPÖ

Burgenland                                                  42 %                  46 %
Kärnten (Carinthia)                                      31 %                  38 %
Niederösterreich (Lower Austria)                 48 %                  37 % 
Oberösterreich (Upper Austria)                    43 %                  37 %
Salzburg                                                       47 %                  31 %
Steiermark (Styria)                                       45 %                  37 %
Tirol (Tyrol)                                                   52 %                  25 %
Vorarlberg                                                    49 %                  20 %
Wien (Vienna)                                              31 %                  44 %

I think Styria will be very close this year because the SD won the state elections last year and therefore predict a narrow win for the SD.

Salzburg also went SD in 2004, but recent polls have the ÖVP at 45-50% there, as is the case in Upper Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Today the preliminary number of eligible voters were released. In Austria you don´t need to register to vote. Everyone who is 18 at the time of the election and has an Austrian Citizenship is eligible to vote.

This year there are 6.108.044 Austrian eligible voters out of a population of about 8.280.000. In 2002 there have been 5.912.592 voters. This represents an increase of 3% over the last 4 years and that roughly 74% of all Austrians are able to vote this year.

[Frodo]

Judging from its description, the Austrian People's Party would likely be my closest fit. 

[Tender Branson]

New poll out today:

Profil-OGM

ÖVP - 39%
SPÖ - 35%
Greens - 11%
FPÖ - 7%
BZÖ - 3%
HPM - 4%
Others - 1%

This would mean that the BZÖ won´t be in the next parliament !

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I hope BZO comes just clsoet to 4% but doesn't go eover. that way they don't get in parliament and lots fo votes get taken away from freedom party and are weasted

[Tender Branson]

I hope BZO comes just clsoet to 4% but doesn't go eover. that way they don't get in parliament and lots fo votes get taken away from freedom party and are weasted

I don´t know about that. Because the BZÖ will be a likely strong force in the state of Carinthia (they could get about 10-20% there) i think they are some kind of underpolled when it comes to whole Austria. I think they can cross the 4% line.

[Tender Branson]

According to the recent OGM poll, the ÖVP is ahead of the SPÖ 41% to 37% in the state of Styria and i will therefore change my prediction. Also the BZÖ could get 19% in Carinthia according to the poll. They would need about 2,5% elsewhere in Austria to cross the 4% line.

The new prediction:



Black: ÖVP (Conservatives) will win
Red: SPÖ (Social Democrats) will win

[Jens]

Took the test (and realised how long ago it is since I read anything in German )

KPÖ 317
Grüne 200
SPÖ 81
ÖVP -60
BZÖ -68
FPÖ -115

I'm pretty sure that I might agree with some of the policies of KPÖ but not the way they want to implement them. I would vote Grüne for sure. KPÖ makes me miss the old days with PCP, PCF, PCE, PCI, PC, KPD, KPÖ, CPN, CPGB, DKP, SKP, NKP, VAS and KKE

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not forget the old CPGB

Admittedly, the lost their last M.P's in 1950, but they still had a couple of councillers in Stepney until the early '70's (but the continued movement of the remaining Jews in the area out of the East End to Ilford et al, killed them off in the end).

[Tender Branson]

Race is tightening:

New Gallup Poll - 31-08-2006:

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 35%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 7%
BZÖ: 4%
HPM: 4%
Others: 2%

[Umengus]

Race is tightening:

New Gallup Poll - 31-08-2006:

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 35%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 7%
BZÖ: 4%
HPM: 4%
Others: 2%

I hope that BZO will get 5% and will be in the parliament. I don't want a false left win.

[??????????]

Nothing less then the OVP sweeping in is acceptable.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll:

Kurier-Integral - 03.09.2006

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 35%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 8%
HPM: 5%
BZÖ: 4%

In the last days the campaign focus was the care of elderly people which benefitted the Social Democrats more than the ÖVP. Therefore the SPÖ cut the 4% lead of the ÖVP into only 2. HPM also benefitted and i think he´s likely underpolled and could get up to 10% in the election.

[Colin]

Does Austria have a 4% or 5% threshold?

[Tender Branson]

Does Austria have a 4% or 5% threshold?

4%

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday the first debate between the Greens and the ÖVP took place. It was not so bad i think, they debated a flurry of issues, the Greens focusing on alternative energy measures and a better tax system, abolition of university tuition etc. while our Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser from the ÖVP focused on abolishing the death tax, estate tax or whatever you call this in the US and strengething the labor market, legalizing foreign care personnell etc. The debate was pretty well balanced i think with no clear winner.

A couple of days ago the Liberal forum decided to campaign together with the Social Democrats for this election but decided not to merge. The Social Democrats guaranteed them 1 fix seat in the Parliament. The Liberal Forum got just 1% the last election, but 1%+ for the SD could get them the win over the Conservatives. The poll lead of the ÖVP currently is somewhere between 2 and 4%.

[Bono]

My results in that thing
BZO 39
OVP 16
FPO 7
SPO -47
Green -56
KPO -76

I think I got the weighting wrong though.

[Tender Branson]

New poll out:

Profil-OGM (09-09-2006)

ÖVP - 38%
SPÖ - 35%
Greens - 10%
FPÖ - 9%
HPM - 5%
BZÖ - 2%
Others - 1%

It seems the BZÖ will fail to get into the parliament while the FPÖ are now fighting with the Greens for 3rd place.

[Bono]

Took it again, this time without weighting, results are

OVP 50
BZO 35
FPO -5
Green -100
SPO -135
KPO -160

[Tender Branson]

First Vorarlberg State poll:

ÖVP: 45%
SPÖ: 21%
Greens: 12%
FPÖ: 11%
HPM: 6%
BZÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

New Salzburg State poll:

ÖVP: 46%
SPÖ: 32%
Greens: 12%
FPÖ: 5%
HPM: 2%
BZÖ: 1,5%
Others: 1,5%

Confirms my estimate, that Western Austria will again vote for the ÖVP this year by a wide margin. Together wih the lead in the Styria poll, they could manage to hold all 6 states they had won in 2002.

[Umengus]

BZO voters will vote for FPO seeing the BZO weak result?

what about HPM? can he support or to be member of a coalition?

[Tender Branson]

BZO voters will vote for FPO seeing the BZO weak result?

what about HPM? can he support or to be member of a coalition?

Yes, definetely. The FPÖ takes away votes from the ÖVP, the SPÖ and the BZÖ. The FPÖ will be very strong in Vienna this year i think, while the BZÖ will be strongest in Carinthia. The FPÖ is very aggressively campaigning against foreigners, the EU-membership of Turkey, the money Austria is paying for the EU etc. and is attracting more right-populist-nationalist voters than the BZÖ somehow. This was already the case in the Vienna state elections last year, when the FPÖ got 15% and the BZÖ just 1%.

HPM or the "Whites" as his list is called, will not enter a coalition with the BZÖ or FPÖ and has not announced plans to be in a coalition with the others, but maybe he will after the elections.

Because if the BZÖ fails, he could become a main player, for example when neither ÖVP and FPÖ, SPÖ and Greens or ÖVP and Greens have a majority of seats and no Grand Coalition can be agreed on, which is unlikely, but possible (-> German Elections last year, everyone thought CDU-FDP were winning it, but then they had to form a grand coalition)