Austrian Election - October 1, 2006

[ag]

Also, SPO seems to have gotten the largest number of votes in 5 of the 9 lander: Burgenland, Carinthia (VPO came third, after BZO), Upper Austria (barely), Styria (barely) and Wiena. VPO is ahead in the other 4

[minionofmidas]

There was talk at one point that BZÖ might be in even if they have less than 4% due to winning a "primary mandate" in Carinthia... can anybody tell me how Austria's seat distribution works exactly? (Of course, it's academic now since they are over 4% after all.)

[ag]

4% or 1 direct mandate.

Over here

http://electionresources.org/at/

it says this:
 
The two-tier National Council electoral system was replaced in 1992 with a three-stage procedure that reintroduced smaller-sized constituencies - to foster closer links among voters and their elected representatives - without sacrificing proportionality in the distribution of seats. Under this system, which has remained in place to this day, the Länder continue to function as state constituencies, but these are in turn divided in forty-three regional constituencies. Parties submit regional, state and federal lists of candidates; electors vote for a party and may cast preferential votes for one regional list candidate and one state list candidate. A statewide electoral quota, calculated by the Hare method, is used to allocate seats at both the regional constituency and state levels; seats won by a party at the regional constituency level - direct mandates - are subtracted from its corresponding statewide seat total, and the remaining mandates come from the party's state lists. Finally, all 183 National Council seats are distributed at the federal level by the d'Hondt rule; seats won by a party at the state level are then deducted from its corresponding nationwide seat total, and the remaining mandates are allocated from the party's federal lists. Nonetheless, a party must receive at least four percent of the vote or win at least one direct mandate in order to secure representation in the National Council.

BTW, the greens, for the first time in history, won two direct mandates.

[minionofmidas]

...unlike the BZÖ.

Two mandates? Must have been in Vienna. The Greens won Vienna's Josefstadt, Mariahilf, and Neubau wards, and also came mighty close in Währing and Alsengrund.

Best turnout - Burgenland 84.1%
Worst - Vienna 65.2%

Best SPÖ - Burgenland 45.3%
Worst - Vorarlberg 18.8%

Best ÖVP - Tyrol 43.9%
Worst - Vienna 20.8%

Best FPÖ - Vienna 14.4%
Worst - Carinthia 7.3% (lol)

Best Greens - Vienna 17.1%
Worst - Burgenland 5.5%

Best BZÖ - Carintha 25.4%
Second - Tyrol or Vorarlberg 3.3%
Worst - Burgenland 1.7%

Best HPM - Vorarlberg 7.8% (just over 4% in Tyrol)
Worst - Styria or Carinthia 1.9%

Best KPÖ - Styria 1.9%
Worst - Burgenland 0.5%

[Tender Branson]

Hey, i´m back, i see you did some analysis:

Some points to add:

The Conservatives (ÖVP) cited tremendous problems in the GOTV efforts and the low turnout for their loss. Chancellor Schüssel for now will not retreat he said and work in the next coalition.

A big disappointment was also the Polling Research Insitutes, who all predicted the ÖVP to win by 2-3%, but I don´t really blame them, because these polls have MoE of 4-5% and the election result yesterday was in the MoE in favor of the Social Democrats.

Another bad day for Hans-Peter-Martin, who was also very disappointed with his 3% he got (here the polls were correct).

The winners of course, the Social Democrats whos alleged involvement in the BAWAG affair didn´t hurt them much and therefore cruised to an (mostly unexpected) win.

The Greens, with their best result ever in Austria, and the best result of any Green Party in Europe A good result for the party I voted for, alltough they stayed behind the FPÖ by about 32.000 votes. This can also change in the coming week when the more than 400.000 absentee ballots are counted, which traditionally favor ÖVP and Greens. Last time the Greens held 20% of the absentee vote and the FPÖ 7%, which means that the 32.000 vote gap could eventually be closed and the Greens could become 3rd largest party.

The FPÖ: Very aggressively campaigning in Vienna but contrary to the state elections last year, they stayed behind the Greens this year in Vienna. The FPÖ and BZÖ together gained much votes across Austria at the expense of the ÖVP. In 2002 the ÖVP gained lots of votes from the affair shaken FPÖ and therefore won the election with over 42%. Now lots of voters went back to the FPÖ.

The BZÖ: Very strong in Carinthia, but barely recognized elsewhere. We have to see what the absentee ballots look like. There´s the possibility that the BZÖ is dragged down below the 4% line and would therefore fail to be in parliament.

And another good day for the Communists who also gained some votes.

Maps:

Here´s how the districts went:

Dark blue: ÖVP won with more than 50%
Light blue: ÖVP won with fewer than 50%

Brown: SPÖ won with more than 50%
Red: SPÖ won with fewer than 50%



compared with the 2002 result here, the ÖVP lost up to or more than 10%, especially in their stronholds in Vorarlberg, Tirol, Salzburg, Upper and Lower Austria:

[Tender Branson]

Detailed results and graphics can be found here on the page of the Interior Minstry:

http://wahl06.bmi.gv.at/

[Tender Branson]

Update:

It really seems that the Greens could become 3rd largest party when the about 250.000 absentee ballots have arrived and counted next Monday.

In 2002 the Greens got about 20% of the absentee vote and the FPÖ 7%. The Greens would need about 14-15% more than the FPÖ to get more overall votes. We´ll have to see, it gets close I think.

Coalitions:

Even if the BZÖ gets just 1% of the absentee vote, they will stay above 4% and therefore will be in the parliament.

That means that no SPÖ-Green and no ÖVP-Green coalition will be possible, therefore the most likey outcome will be a Grand Coalition.

It would be the 17th Grand Coalition in Austria.

[minionofmidas]

Vienna has some pretty remarkable voting patterns...
Here's the % voting Left of center by Bezirk (SPÖ, Greens, Martin, KPÖ)
city 62.4%
VII Neubau 68.2%
XV Rudolfsheim - Fünfhaus 67.3%
V Margareten 66.9%
II Leopoldstadt 66.8%
XX Brigittenau 66.4%
XVI Ottakring 65.1%
XXII Donaustadt 65.1%
VI Mariahilf 64.9%
XI Simmering 64.5%
XXI Floridsdorf 63.6%
XII Meidling 63.1%
X Favoriten 62.7%
III Landstraße 62.3%
IX Alsengrund 62.1%
XXIII Liesing 61.0%
VIII Josefstadt 60.8%
XVII Hernals 60.6%
IV Wieden 60.2%
XIV Penzing 60.1%
XVIII Währing 55.1%
XIX Döbling 52.7%
XIII Hietzing 51.3%
I Innere Stadt 47.9%

Looks pretty uniform except for those four outliers at the bottom, doesn`t it now? Well, compare the following table. ÖVP+Greens.

city 37.9%
I Innere Stadt 65.5%
VIII Josefstadt 61.6%
XVIII Währing 59.6%
VII Neubau 57.7%
IV Wieden 56.3%
VI Mariahilf 55.8%
IX Alsengrund 55.5%
XIII Hietzing 55.4%
XIX Döbling 51.8%
III Landstraße 46.5%
XVII Hernals 44.7%
V Margareten 42.4%
XIV Penzing 41.6%
II Leopoldstadt 37.7%
XXIII Liesing 37.5%
XV Rudolfsheim - Fünfhaus 34.8%
XVI Ottakring 34.8%
XII Meidling 32.9%
XX Brigittenau 28.9%
XXII Donaustadt 28.4%
XXI Floridsdorf 26.4%
X Favoriten 24.0%
XI Simmering 21.9%

ÖVP and Greens tend to do well in the same parts of the city (more or less. Except for the Ist, the Greens tend to be stronger compared to the ÖVP in the more central areas.) and the correlation between SPÖ and FPÖ is actually even stronger.
Isn't this city any BNPer's or any Labourite LD-and-Green-hater's wet dream?

What's even better, divide the city into Blackgreen and Redblue parts, and you get something of a yin-and-yang shape.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that's interesting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is either a SPÖ-Green-BZÖ or a ÖVP-Green-BZÖ coalition politically possible?

[minionofmidas]

Is either a SPÖ-Green-BZÖ or a ÖVP-Green-BZÖ coalition politically possible?

No.

Or so one would think. But I saw the ORF live discussion with all the party leaders (not all of it. I missed the Green. ) and these options didn't occur to anyone, unlike o/c ÖVP-BZÖ-FPÖ and - shock - SPÖ-FPÖ-Greens. Apparently that latter combination exists in the ORF's governing body! Although Gusenbauer made it very clear he doesn't even like its existence there.

[minionofmidas]

Race is tightening:

New Gallup Poll - 31-08-2006:

ÖVP: 37%
SPÖ: 35%
Greens: 11%
FPÖ: 7%
BZÖ: 4%
HPM: 4%
Others: 2%

I hope that BZO will get 5% and will be in the parliament. I don't want a false left win.

Instead we technically got a false right win (although o/c I couldn't seriously picture a SPÖ-Green-HPM-KPÖ coalition, and I don't think anyone else could. Still, those four parties did poll over 50.00% of the vote.)

[Democratic Hawk]

An SPO/OVP Grand Coalition would likely suit me were I Austrian

Dave

[Tender Branson]

Here´s some interesting fact that shows what lead to the defeat of the Conservatives:

They lost the support of the Catholic Electorate and especially the regular Catholic churchgoers (a trend similar to the GOP and the Evangelicals in the US this year -> GOP's Hold on Evangelicals Weakening)

Here´s a graphic showing the Exit poll conducted right after the election with a sample of 2000 people. It shows the vote by religion in last Sundays election compared to the 2002 election:



The first line indicates party voting by the regular catholic churchogoers.

The second line indicates sporadic catholic churchgoing voting.

the third line shows how all catholics voted.

in the 4th line is the protestant/evangelical vote

in the 5th the votes of people with other (eg. Muslim, Jewish, Bhuddists) religions

in the 6th those without religion

For better understanding, Austria has about 70% Catholics, 5% Protestants, 5% Muslims, 3% Other Religions and 17% with no religion.

[Jens]

How many of the Catholics are regular churchgoers?

(PS got to love the similarity between Danish and German: Regelmässige katholische Kirchgänger = regelmæssige katolske kirkegængere)

[Tender Branson]

How many of the Catholics are regular churchgoers?

(PS got to love the similarity between Danish and German: Regelmässige katholische Kirchgänger = regelmæssige katolske kirkegængere)

The article where I got the exit poll from says that about 1/5 of the Austrian electorate are regular Catholic churchgoers.

and: danish and german are germanic languages, as is english, therefore the similarity. Whats funny is that allthough the Swiss talk German I sometimes understand the Dutch better then the Swiss, because of their strange dialect

[Tender Branson]

Here´s a good map for all the cities and towns in Austria:





Preliminary absentee ballot counts indicate that the Greens might overtake the FPÖ and become 3. largest party. Because of the big amount of Green absentee votes, the BZÖ will lose 1 seat while the Greens will gain 1. About 250.000 absentee ballots will arive and be counted until Monday. Then we have the final vote result.

The final seat count is:

SPÖ: 68
ÖVP: 66
Greens: 21
FPÖ: 21
BZÖ: 7

And: A Grand-Coaltion is now very likely.

[Tender Branson]

Finally it happened - The Greens are third largest party now !

They overtook the FPÖ by about 500 votes, because of their strong showing in the absentee ballots.

This means that for the first time the Greens will get the 3. Parliamentary President after the 1. (SPÖ) and the 2. (ÖVP)

The results:

Absentee result:

SPÖ: 74.557 - 28,98%
ÖVP: 93.306 - 36,27%
Greens: 53.313 - 20,72%
FPÖ: 20.285 - 7,89%
BZÖ: 6.811 - 2,65%
Others: 8.987 - 3,49%

Alltogether: 257.259 valid abs. votes

Overall final result:

SPÖ: 1.663.986 - 35,34%
ÖVP: 1.616.493 - 34,33%
Greens: 520.130 - 11,05%
FPÖ: 519.598 - 11,04%
BZÖ: 193.539 - 4,11%
Others: 194.535 - 4,13%

Alltogether: 4.708.281 valid votes

Final Turnout: 78,5%

[Kevinstat]

The final seat count is:

SPÖ: 68
ÖVP: 66
Greens: 21
FPÖ: 21
BZÖ: 7

Has that been confirmed to be right now that the official (or at least not just preliminary) result of the absentee ballot count (and thus the overall count) has come in?  I thought perhaps the SPÖ might loose a seat and/or the ÖVP gain one, but I haven't done any calculations.

[Tender Branson]

The final seat count is:

SPÖ: 68
ÖVP: 66
Greens: 21
FPÖ: 21
BZÖ: 7

Has that been confirmed to be right now that the official (or at least not just preliminary) result of the absentee ballot count (and thus the overall count) has come in?  I thought perhaps the SPÖ might loose a seat and/or the ÖVP gain one, but I haven't done any calculations.

This is the official count now. The Greens gained 1 seat at the expense of the BZÖ, which was underrepresented in the absentee ballot compared to the national vote, while the Greens were overrepresented. The absentee share of the SPÖ, ÖVP and FPÖ wasn´t much different to the national vote, therefore the seats remained unchanged

[Tender Branson]

Currently there's a stalemate in the Coalition talks with the SPÖ insisting to cancel the already bought Eurofighter jets, but the ÖVP wants to keep them.

The ÖVP is threatening to block negotiations with the SPÖ and will decide today if they end talks with the winner of the election.

The mayor of Vienna, a very influential person inside the SPÖ, has said that "New Elections" will follow if the ÖVP stays bullheaded...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Good for the ÖVP then.  Given the way that military contracts are usually set up, once you sink some money in, it usually is better to go ahead and finish the contract.  Dropping the Eurofighter now only makes sense if the Luftstreitkräfte is going to stop operating fighter aircraft altogether.  Those almost three decade old Tiger II's being leased from the Swiss aren't viable as anthing other than a stopgap, and if not Eurofighter, what?

[Tender Branson]

Good for the ÖVP then.  Given the way that military contracts are usually set up, once you sink some money in, it usually is better to go ahead and finish the contract.  Dropping the Eurofighter now only makes sense if the Luftstreitkräfte is going to stop operating fighter aircraft altogether.  Those almost three decade old Tiger II's being leased from the Swiss aren't viable as anthing other than a stopgap, and if not Eurofighter, what?

We should buy them. It´s always good to see them at air shows

I´m still in favor of buying these aircraft. I wouldn´t have said no to 30 Saab Gripens either. The problem is our politicians are debating this subject now for 21 years (!). in 1985 the then SPÖ-FPÖ coalition agreed to buy new fighter jets for the Austrian military by the mid 90s. But in the mid 90s the SPÖ-Chancellor said the issue should be dealt with after the 99 elections. The ÖVP-FPÖ coalition agreed then to buy the fighters. And now today the SPÖ, FPÖ and Greens brought in a investigation committee before parliament. In my opinion a referendum should have been set up in the mid 90s and we would have seen if the Austrians want the fighters or not. I´m convinced they would have wanted them. But now after battle lines are drawn, the public is about evenly split. This issue should have been resolved way earlier...

[Tender Branson]

As I predicted yesterday, the ÖVP indeed decided to terminate coalition talks with the SPÖ.

What will follow now ?

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Another possibility is that the ÖVP gives up its stubbornness and returns to the negotiating table with the SPÖ (unlikely).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Either a minority government by the SPÖ-Greens which is tolerated by the FPÖ or New Elections will be called.

Is this even possible? And wouldn't it destroy any credibility the SPÖ and Greens have?